Michigan shot 51.1% from the field while holding opponents to 38.4%, which ranks No. 1 in the nation. Michigan has taken its game up a notch, with everybody elevating their play to make them look like they did in November and December, when they were blowing everybody out. That team is back, and they have scored 90 points or more in all four of their tournament games. Consistency. They’ll score at least 80 against Arizona.

I think we are going to see a hot start in the second game of the night, as Michigan and Arizona can both get out in transition and can crash the glass to find easy points early. Even if three-pointers aren't falling, there are enough matchup opportunities to exploit on both sides to see some points scored early as each coach shows their schematic hand. The scoring could slow after halftime, bringing the full game total into question, but I think the track meet that's projected does play out for the first 20 minutes.

The Wildcats are incredibly deep, with seven players averaging at least 8.6 points a game. It’s splitting hairs with these two teams, but if I were to find one edge, it’s that Arizona is deeper and has played better and more consistently than Michigan. It’s a thin line, as the two teams have a combined five losses by 23 total points, with the lone difference being that Arizona won the Big 12 tourney, and Michigan lost in the Big Ten final. Arizona's depth is the small edge that wins the game.

Arizona scored at will inside the arc throughout its Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas and after halftime of the Elite Eight game against Purdue. The Wildcats don’t like to take a lot of threes; that could prove problematic against the nation’s No. 1 defense. Michigan has the size and connectivity to bother Arizona’s normally unstoppable 2-point offense. The Wolverines hold opponents to 44 percent inside the arc. In a titanic matchup of peaking teams, I like Michigan to execute late, win and cover.

Do you really think I was going to submit a pick against my beloved Wildcats? Sadly, I won't be in Indianapolis at the Final Four but maybe that's a good thing for their chances. The last time I saw Arizona play in person was in February against Texas Tech, a 78-75 OT loss. Since then, the Wildcats are 13-0 including a win over Purdue in the Elite Eight. That's the same Boilermakers team who all-but-dominated Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. Ignore the Tommy Lloyd-to-UNC rumors, this Wildcats team is focused and ready for their moment. Either way, the winner of this epic matchup will go on to win the National Championship. And that will be Arizona by the thinnest of margins, 82-79.

These are the two best teams remaining in the tournament, and the winner of this game will likely claim the National Championship. Both teams match up well, but I believe the Wildcats have more depth, especially after Michigan lost L.J. Cason to an ACL injury just before the postseason. While Michigan hasn’t needed him so far, his 40% three-point shooting could be missed in this matchup. Arizona doesn’t attempt many threes, but they are capable shooters and may take more shots from beyond the arc in this game. After analyzing both teams throughout the season, my betting model favors Arizona by 2.5 points—a prediction I strongly endorse. Arizona’s decisive edge on the boards was the pivotal factor that convinced me to side with them.