Chip's Picks (2 Live)
Rick Barnes is knocking on the door of a third-straight Elite Eight appearance and already has Tennessee in the Sweet 16 for a fourth straight season. The foundational pieces of his program, like offensive rebounding, are a huge part of neutral site tournament wins and that in particular is an X-factor in finding an edge against an elite and disruptive Iowa State defense that makes everything hard. Plus, while the Joshua Jefferson injury is likely baked into this spread already, his all-around excellence means no one player can fill the role entirely. Jefferson is Iowa State's second-leading scorer (16.4 PPG), yes, but he’s also second on the team in assists (4.8 APG) and leads the team in rebounds (7.4 RPG).
Arizona seems to be good for 90 points in this matchup, because even if Arkansas pulls off the upset it seems unlikely the Hogs are well-positioned to get a lot of stops. Teams have been scoring well into the 80s with some regularity and most of those squads do not have the offensive ceiling of Arizona, not to mention the potential mismatches the Wildcats pose with their skilled bigs on the interior. Arkansas' two-point defense has been a statistical liability in the last 10 games, but they've good enough offensively to overcome it with a 9-1 record in that stretch. That's the Darius Acuff effect, and why we're just focused on Arizona's offensive in this matchup.
It did not look like a neutral site at all in Oklahoma City as “Go Big Red” chants rang out across a red-clad Paycom Center for Nebraska’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win. Since the nature of the victory was a slow, cruising coronation I’m not expecting too much of an emotional hangover or letdown for the Cornhuskers, who were very much in rhythm on offense and knocked down 14 three-pointers in the win. I would not be surprised at all to see plenty of big swings and lead changes throughout the game, but at the end of 40 minutes I think the Cornhuskers to move on to the Sweet 16 so I’ll take the value of a couple points as an underdog.
There is not a favorable recent history for how these mid-bracket double-digit seeds fair in the second round. But this pick is less about fading VCU after its dramatic comeback win against North Carolina than it is a tip of the cap to how Illinois handles these situations against non-conference opponents. Thursday’s first round win against Penn was Illinois’ first non-conference game since Dec. 29, but the 35-point win followed in the footsteps of how the Illini performed against mid-major competition all season. Now, VCU is certainly not playing like a median mid-major team right now at all, but it’s hard to imagine the same Rams team that was down 19 points to UNC being in form enough to keep pace with Illinois’ offense.
Michigan State loves to hunt transition opportunities and with Louisville’s pace and shot volume there should be chances to get out and run. The Spartans’ defense also started to slide a little bit at the end of the regular season, contributing to a run that saw the over hit 9 times in Michigan State’s last 11 games. Louisville had a good offensive rhythm in the first round before USF began its panic pressure in the second half and forcing turnovers, but that again contributed to the Cards’ game going over the closing total of 160.5. Sparty’s average pace on the season is slower than what they’ve shown in recent weeks, providing some value on the over.
One of the most entertaining games of Friday will be the last one scheduled, but when tip-off finally arrives you should get some buzz from a Mizzou-leaning crowd in St. Louis. Interestingly, that’s where Miami has actually thrived this year, going 8-2 in true road games. Malik Reneau and Mark Mitchell are must-see TV in this clash of all-conference lead forwards, but it’s the experience and play-making of Miami guard Tre Donaldson that can be the X-factor in the late-game possessions to give Lucas his first NCAA Tournament victory as a head coach.
For all the success of Donovan Dent here in the second half of the conference schedule, UCLA has also lost a step defensively since the start of February. That’s got to be the path for UCF here, the only problem is that the Knights’ best offensive performances away from home (wins at BYU and Colorado) required out-of-body three-point shooting. It's tough to count on that against a UCLA team that seems to be getting healthier and may be poised to conquer the dreaded Eastern Time Zone.
St. John’s has a talent, size and athleticism advantage in this matchup. I just wonder if the edge is worth this many points when you consider the way Northern Iowa matches up and the cross-country travel for the Johnnies to San Diego. This year’s Panthers team packs it in on defense and limits easy looks at the rim, forcing opponents to shoot over the top of the defense. St. John’s is excellent at a lot of things but shooting would not be the first that comes to mind, so it’s going to really require Zuby Ejiofor to take over the game. St. John’s is still my pick to advance, but an upset scare against a bad matchup would not be a surprise at all.
Iowa has no questions about who gets the ball in clutch situations, because the first, second and third options begin with Bennett Stirtz. Clemson’s usually stout defense has gotten picked apart on the interior in the last month and that’s where Stirtz and the pick-and-roll game provide not just a consistent way to generate offense but an answer for crunch time possessions. Clemson’s by-committee approach, stressed even more by the injury to second-leading scorer Carter Welling, might not be enough to keep up with Stirtz at the other end.
Hawaii has impressive size that should be able to keep Arkansas off the boards and away from the rim, turning the Hogs into a shooting team. That's not ideal in a quick turnaround from cutting down nets in Nashville on Sunday to tipping it off in Portland on Thursday afternoon, where normally you'd want to rely on easy buckets to get into the flow of the game. And while Hawaii has size, its ball-handlers could be overwhelmed by Arkansas' athleticism on defense. Both teams playing with tempo on the year has this total above 160, but with empty possessions in the forecast the edge is to the under.
USF is an up-tempo team that plays an attacking style and is simply carrying great vibes into the NCAA Tournament after going 15-3 in conference play and losing just one game in regulation since Jan. 1. Bryan Hodgson has done a terrific job coming over from Arkansas State to flip the switch for the Bulls and recently-crowned AAC Player of the Year Izaiyah Nelson is a big reason why this group won’t be intimidated by Louisville’s power conference bona fides. Mikel Brown’s status, as always, is up in the air but Louisville in general hasn’t been dominant against the best teams on its schedule.
Nebraska has been a big under team all season on the back of a defense that rates in the top 10 nationally and led the Big Ten in defensive efficiency in conference play. Troy plays with one of the 10 slowest tempos in the tournament and while they shoot the three-pointer willingly the Trojans rank 219th nationally making them (33.2%). If Nebraska can force Troy to take a lot of threes and the Trojans miss approximately 65% of those shots the Cornhuskers will secure the school’s first-ever NCAA Tournament win. Speaking of, there is a vibes aspect of this pick that is eyeing the anxiety of ending the March Madness drought and wondering if maybe Nebraska isn’t a little bit tight down the stretch.
Miami (Ohio)’s spacing and shooting should translate even against a power conference defense, in part because SMU’s defensive quality down the stretch of the regular season might have been closer to the MAC than the ACC. The Mustangs ranked 16th out of 18 teams in defensive efficiency in conference play, and gave up 80 points or more in half of their ACC games. SMU does have an advantage with 7-2 center Samet Yigitoglu against Miami’s front line, and the RedHawks defense has been part of the blame for some close calls late in the year and the MAC Tournament loss. Combine those factors with fast tempo and a rowdy crowd for the in-state RedHawks in Dayton and it's easy to envision a high-scoring affair.