Chip's Picks (2 Live)
Pitt always gets up for UNC under Jeff Capel, as evidenced by his six wins (three on the road) in 10 games, nearly all as an underdog. And while this year’s Pitt team is down bad, currently riding a 2-10 record in conference play coming out of a 16-point loss to Duke, the Panthers do face the Tar Heels in the immediate shell-shock spot of losing star freshman Caleb Wilson to injury. Wilson’s absence will be felt across the board as he’s the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, but from a betting angle I think it shows up as defensive regression. The Tar Heels will have to out-score teams, and that will trend to some overs until the market makes its post-Caleb adjustment.
This feels like a big time reload the musket game for Kansas, who really poured it out to knock off Arizona on Monday night without Darryn Peterson in the lineup. The victory extended what’s now become an 8-game winning streak that started with a 21-point throttling of Iowa State, but that win saw Kansas have its best 3-point shooting of the season. And just like Bill Self crediting Allen Fieldhouse for help in the win on Monday, we must acknowledge the potential for Hilton Magic in Ames. We're looking for positive regression for Iowa State as the offense has had bit of a two-game hiccup and maybe some cooling off for a red-hot Kansas team in a tough road environment.
Clemson became the latest team to get picked off in its first game back from the Cal-Stanford Bay Area road trip, which becoming a bit of a trend in the ACC over the last two seasons. Virginia Tech is a decent team, but the double-digit home loss was uncharacteristic of the quality that Brad Brownell’s group has shown for much of the season. Here the Tigers get a chance to bounce back against a Duke team that has, for much of the season, been a better team in the second half. With Clemson itching to bring the fight to the Blue Devils in an early Saturday start in Cameron, I think the Tigers can be inside the number heading the locker room at halftime.
Michigan State has been off all week since its 85-82 OT win against Illinois last Saturday, and now Sparty has to knock off the rust on the road against a Wisconsin team that’s absolutely buzzing after an OT road win against that same Fighting Illini squad. Though the Badgers were able to storm back from a 12-point second half deficit against Illinois I’m not sure they have addressed some defensive shortcomings. That could lead to a higher-scoring game, even against a elite defensive team like Michigan State. If the Badgers are a step faster on offense and Jeremy Fears can cut through the Wisconsin defense like Keaton Wagler did there's a real bucket-for-bucket game script that could take us over this total.
Merrimack is 12-2 against MAAC opponents and is the only team to rank in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play, per KenPom. Freshman guard Kevair Kennedy is one of the best players in the conference and he carved up the Foxes for 20 points in the first meeting between these teams, a 13-point win at Marist back on Jan. 19. Tonight they’re playing the return game in North Andover, where Merrimack is 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread, so I like laying the short number with the Warriors.
Since the 2020-21 season, Brad Underwood is 39-8 after a loss and this year those bounce back spots have included a 43-point win against Missouri, a 13-point win against Tennessee and a 40-point win against Long Island. There’s also a bit of a revenge angle after Wisconsin caught Illinois in a hangover post-Michigan State one year ago in Madison, and the more tangible matchup-focused edge for Keaton Wagler against a Badgers defense with a few weak links. Playing at home in Champaign, there's a chance Illinois could work out some frustration from the weekend defeat and in a return-to-form runaway win.
BYU's defense has taken a bit of a nose dive in conference play, giving up 76 points or more in eight of the Cougars' 10 games against Big 12 competition. And since I would not grade Baylor as an elite defensive team, particularly matched up against AJ Dybantsa and a high-octane BYU offense in bounce back mode, getting over this total should not be a problem.
There might be a little bit of blood in the water for the Boilermakers and Nebraska, playing in Pinnacle Bank, is the kind of team that's good enough to pounce. Purdue needed some late-game heroics to help avoid a potential disaster home loss to Oregon over the weekend, and the interior defensive issues that have been a constant in Big Ten play once again played a role in that game being way closer than expected. That might not sound like an issue against a 5-out heavy offense, but Nebraska forces teams to make the right switches and rotations and I'm not sure Purdue has enough elite stoppers to meet the challenge.
The Wolfpack have been dynamite on the road in ACC play, going 6-0 and logging wins against likely tournament teams Clemson and SMU. Louisville, on the other hand, has been a fairly inconsistent and streaky team recently. The Cards are 3-7 against the spread since Jan. 1 and rely heavily on the 3-point shot for their offense, even though the team is shooting just 32.8% from behind the arc in conference play. A Louisville win in a big Monday night game at home would not be a shock, but the Pack are too frisky to give multiple possessions of points on the spread.
I think we've got a bit of value in what should be an absolute classic of a Big East matchup on Friday in the World's Most Famous Arena, as UConn might technically be the road team but will feel right at home in "Storrs South." I've got the Huskies rated as the better team on a neutral court, but Madison Square Garden might not even be neutral given Dan Hurley's recent success. UConn is already 2-0 in MSG this season with wins over Illinois and Florida and Hurley is currently boasting an 11-2 record over his last 13 games in the arena.
Both of these teams enter their first of two regular season rivalry showdowns coming off sweaty mid-week wins, with Michigan snatching victory from Nebraska and Sparty having to roar back from a potential upset spot against Rutgers. But while Michigan State might have been caught in a lookahead spot I think Michigan's close win is more in line with its recent form. The Wolverines have failed to cover in each of its last seven games, and there are some matchup points that will allow Michigan State to negate some of what has made Michigan so excellent this season. Plus, Tom Izzo at home as an underdog in a rivalry game? I'll take those points all day.
I think we have an obvious letdown spot for UConn coming off a tremendous win against the reigning national champion Florida Gators on Tuesday night in Madison Square Garden. Here they get a visit from Sean Miller's first Texas team, and while the Longhorns have not faired well against top competition they are athletic enough to do some damage with a well-executed game plan. Speaking of game plan, Miller's Xavier team played UConn tough last year and peeled off a couple wins against the eventual national champs in 2023. This spread considers Texas way too much of a pushover given the spot and the familiarity in the coaching matchup.
Jon Scheyer wants the identity of his Duke teams to be on the defensive end of the floor, and that's where I think we have some real opportunity in these games against inferior competition. With a young team playing on the road in West Point, it might be understandable to see slightly lower production and also for Scheyer to toy with his lineups and test his depth. But it doesn't matter whether you are Cam Boozer or the 10th man on the bench, Scheyer wants to see floor-slapping defense from the Blue Devils.