Chip's Picks (2 Live)
The quality of play from Penn State has gotten viciously low here at the end of an extremely difficult season. The Nittany Lions have lost five of the last six games and enter the Big Ten Tournament coming off a 32-point loss to Ohio State at home and a 12-point loss to Rutgers on the road. Northwestern has better top-end players, beat Penn State by 21 points earlier this year and has been more consistently competitive than the Nittany Lions over the last three weeks. It’s a big number for a Tuesday night game between two of the four lowest-seeded teams in the league, but I’m expecting a locked-in performance for senior Nick Martinelli and the Wildcats playing in Chicago.
Virginia Tech controlled the regular season meeting, winning 82-63 and absolutely carving up Wake Forest’s defense to the tune of 1.35 points per possessions (a season-high for the Hokies). I’m not sure Wake Forest, a team that ranks 15th in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play, is going to have a lot of the answers they lacked when it comes to stopping Mike Young’s offense. Virginia Tech is clearly gutted from a tough loss four-point loss at Virginia over the weekend, but their slim tournament hopes can be kept alive with a deep run in the tournament. The Deacs could play this game closer than last month’s loss in Blacksburg, but this line doesn’t address the mismatch of that meeting.
Northern Iowa is on its fourth game in four days, and might have started to see the effect of those minutes as Bradley closed an 18-point deficit to lose by four points in the semifinals. UIC has handled business in both of its two tournament games, winning by 13 and 21 points, and has generally been playing better basketball since Northern Iowa beat the Flames by six points back on Dec. 17. They split the season series, but the edge goes to UIC with rest advantage and a form that's trending in the right direction as the school eyes its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2004.
Ohio State is averaging 77.2 points per game in Big Ten play this season, but that number is skewed by a couple of offensive duds against the elite defenses of Michigan (twice) and Michigan State. The Buckeyes average 80.3 points per game against everyone else in the conference, and have put up at least 80 points in six of their last seven home games. Now they face an Indiana team that may have had a pour-it-out game against lowly Minnesota to stop a four-game losing streak, and I’m not going to overreact to the Hoosiers’ defensive performance in that win to think they are ready to slow Bruce Thornton and John Mobley.
Florida has been dynamite away from home, going 10-1 against the spread with the only slip-up coming at Missouri back on Jan. 3. Florida has met, and in some cases exceeded expectations in each of its last seven SEC road games and now gets to kick off its 2026 postseason road trip in hostile territory against Big Blue Nation. I think the Gators will thrive in this kind of environment and no amount of revenge angle from the first meeting (a 92-83 Florida win) can change what is a noticeable gap between these two teams. Florida is a national title contender and games like this are going to bring out the best in the Gators, which should be good enough to cover a two-possession spread.
Cincinnati has size, athleticism and confidence coming into this game with a 6-1 record since Feb. 7. The Bearcats have held five of those opponents under 70 points with a defense that forces tough shots thanks to two powers in the post with 6-11 senior Baba Miller and 7-2 sophomore Moustapha Thiam. TCU can boast an even longer streak of success with seven wins in its last eight games, but the variance of their performances leaves some questions in the wake of a monster win at Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs' regular rotation doesn’t have anyone taller than 6-8, so the size advantage could be a tough factor to overcome for a team that might not have as much bubble-related urgency as the Bearcats.
I’m through having any hesitation about Miami’s status as one of the better teams in this conference, as though the 24 wins and 13-4 conference mark weren’t enough. But for about a month we have seen Miami not only take down tournament-bound ACC teams like North Carolina, NC State and most recently, SMU, but take care of business against lesser competition. The team is 7-1 since Feb. 1 with the only loss coming at Virginia by three points, and Louisville has been far too erratic on the road to be trusted. The Cardinals are 3-7 in true road games this year, and Mikel Brown’s DNP on Tuesday leaves some availability questions for the team’s star freshman.
Arkansas won the the first meeting 94-86 back on Feb. 21, but what should be noted for the rematch was how Missouri's Mark Mitchell was able to cause real problems for the Razorbacks’ frontcourt. Mitchell had a game-high 26 points, and took more than half of Missouri’s free throws as Trevon Brazile (fouled out), Malique Ewin (four fouls) and Nick Pringle (four fouls in 12 minutes) all dealt with foul trouble. It wasn’t like Arkansas had success sending extra help, either, because Mitchell also had a game-high eight assists in the loss. I’m just not sure enough has changed between Feb. 21 and March 7 to think Arkansas has a better answer to stop Missouri’s versatile big man and slowing the Tigers' offense.
Seton Hall’s defense has bolstered a fairly consistent trend to the under, which has gone 11-5 in home games this season. But this play is way more about the rematch adjustments after a wild first meeting back on Jan. 20 in Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall jumped all over St. John’s in the first half on a Tuesday night, leading by as many as 15 points early in the second half, before Rick Pitino’s squad stormed back to steal a 65-60 win. Now Pitino, who should have the team dialed in after a scare against Georgetown, can put in the adjustments to make sure a Seton Hall offense that has not been dominant in Big East play does not have the same success.
Iowa is averaging 70.8 points per game against Big Ten opponents, the result of middling efficiency (9th in the conference) and an unhurried tempo, which has the Hawkeyes slotted at No. 357 of 365 Division I teams. That sets a base line for this game, which is both decidedly not against the average Big Ten defense and also probably a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes. Michigan is an elite two-point defense thanks to its trio of stellar bigs, and while Iowa is going to try and pick-and-roll its way to Bennett Stirtz-fueled buckets I’m not sure he’s getting enough firepower from the supporting cast to carve up the Wolverines efficiently.
Pittsburgh certainly enjoyed its trip back to the East Coast after closing out the Bay Area double with an upset win against Cal. Now the question is whether we see a jet-lagged letdown against a Florida State team that’s 4-0 in its last four and 5-3 overall in ACC road games this season. It’s no surprise to see teams start to play better basketball late in Year 1 of a new hire, and Luke Loucks’ team has been mostly trending in the right direction after an 0-5 start to conference play. We have seen teams really struggle in that first return game after the ACC’s Bay Area back-to-back over the last two seasons, and Florida State’s quality validates a play in this spot.
There should be some real concern about SMU right now, because the Mustangs undid some good work with last week’s trip to the Bay Area to face Cal and Stanford. Saturday’s 20-point loss at Stanford left SMU 0-2 on the trip and now welcome in a Miami team that had as many ACC wins (6) in the month of February as anyone not named Duke. SMU, on the other hand, went 4-4 in that same stretch and didn’t provide too much in terms of defensive resistance. Miami plays with a much thinner margin against high-end shooting teams, but whether SMU is in rhythm or not after the West Coast road trip is something to question.
Oregon is 4-14 in Big Ten play but 3-2 in its last five games. Nate Bittle and Kwame Evans make for a dynamic duo down low who are difficult in their own right to stop but also won’t be thrown off by Illinois’ size. It’s a tricky spot for the Fighting Illini coming off the deflating defeat last Friday night, because the Wolverines were quite possibly the last top-50 opponent the team will face until the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. Brad Underwood’s team might be in a spot to take a breath and reset, while the Ducks are playing with house money and a bit more confidence from recent success.