It’s possible that Ole Miss runs out of gas with this being their fourth game in four days. But, the Rebels are playing their best basketball of the season despite a 4-14 SU conference record. They’re also the first team since Auburn in 2015 to win three straight to advance to the SEC semi’s. The Razorbacks are by far the more talented and physical team, pushing the pace. However, if Ole Miss was able to battle with the Crimson Tide’s pace then they should be ready for this one too. This is Ole Miss' season on the line so they should give it all they got.
Purdue got an easy victory over the Cornhuskers yesterday. UCLA is still dealing with an injury to Tyler Bilodeau, who’s expected to be back for the big dance. The Bruins won the only meeting between these two and that was at home. UCLA has struggled all season on the road but they’ve won four straight and are playing their best basketball of the season, led by Donovan Dent. The Bruins defend the perimeter better than Purdue and it appears Mick Cronin’s players have bought back in down the stretch.
Nevada won their regular season meeting against the Lopes. That game was a low-scoring game as well. Grand Canyon has one of the better defenses in the country, holding their opponents to less than 48% on the season. The Wolfpack want a slower paced game anyway as they rely heavily on the three and if they aren’t dropping, this could be another low scoring affair. The game has gone under the total in seven of their last eight games combined.
Oklahoma State wants to play as fast as humanly possible, 9th in the nation in pace. The Cowboys already have a game on this funky court, scoring 92 points last night. It could take some time for TCU to get used to this court as they’ll attempt to limit the Cowboys in transition, creating turnovers, 21st in the nation in that department. Oklahoma State’s inability to close out both regular season games can be worrisome, but the Cowboys lost both games by a combined six points so we’ll back them to keep this one close as well.
Oklahoma has won four straight, coming into the SEC tournament in better form than the Gamecocks. South Carolina has lost 13 of their last 16 games, struggling against teams with a strong down-low presence. The Sooners don’t have that as South Carolina won the only meeting this season, but that was at home. The Gamecocks defend the perimeter well and even though Oklahoma should win, this seems like too big of a number for a conference game.
St. John’s doesn't have much to play for tonight. This game means so much more to the Pirates as they’re fighting for the big dance. Seton Hall held the Johnnies to 60 points in their first meeting, second lowest of the season, and that was on the road. The Pirates, while their offense isn’t the best, stay in games with their defense, forcing their opponent into a half-court slugfest. Seton Hall is also 9-1 ATS as underdogs this season.
Last time these two faced off, VCU won by 26 points at home. The Flyers were out-rebounded 44-38 and had 16 turnovers in the first meeting as well. However, Dayton is now playing their best basketball of the season and are still 14-2 SU at home with a +13.4 point differential. Dayton has won six straight and the away team has had the most success in recent outings but the Flyers should be more motivated to end the regular season on a high note at home.
Sacred Heart has the advantage of playing yesterday, knocking off the Gaels. Merrimack has one of the best defenses in this conference due to that extended two-three zone that’s difficult to prepare for. The Warriors have won and covered three straight against Sacred Heart but the way these mid-major conference tournaments have bene going, the Pioneer are in a good position to stay within the number with being finally fully healthy and playing some of their better ball of the season.
Missouri State is 10-6 SU at home but are currently on a seven game losing streak. This is the first time this season that they’re a home underdog and the Hilltoppers took the only meeting of the season, winning by 15 at home. Western Kentucky is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and are finally fully healthy, as they’ve been averaging 89 points per game on their six game winning streak. The Hilltoppers are the better rebounding team and much better from the stripe, shooting over 76% as compared to Missouri State’s 66% at home with this short fishy line.
Detroit Mercy has, surprisingly, been the better team this season. The Titans are 18-9 ATS on the year as compared to Milwaukee’s 12-18 ATS. Detroit has been playing well of late, a 7-2 SU record in its last nine games, while Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in its last nine. The Titans have the rebounding edge and along with home-court edge which should help them control the tempo and Milwaukee has been very inconsistent on the defensive end for the majority of the season.
SMU needs this one to keep their tournament hopes alive. The Mustangs are 15-2 SU at home and coming off back-to-back losses and three losses in their last five overall, BJ Edwards being sidelined with an ankle injury hasn’t helped either. Miami has played very well on the road but interior defense from the Mustangs could create problems since Miami isn’t particularly strong from three. The Mustangs should control the pace as they have the more efficient offense to get a much needed win.
First round of the Sun Belt tournament in Florida. Louisiana averaged less than 66 points per game during the regular season. The Ragin’ Cajuns also don’t get to the free throw line as much, less than 16 attempts per game, lowest in the conference this season. Georgia State has shown, at times, that their offense is more capable of producing. The Panthers also have an edge with rebounding and slightly more scoring depth.
Had this game circled since Friday night and even though three other excellent cappers are on this, got to stick with my gut. Eastern Washington is the hottest in the Big Sky currently. The Eagles are in revenge, losing by three the first meeting, and Idaho is still without their staring point guard, Kolton Mitchell. Eastern Washington still has a chance to win the regular season while also being 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.The Vandals are 0-5 SU in their last five trips to Cheney. Idaho may have a slight edge on the boards but with how Eastern Washington is performing offensively, it's tough to ignore.
If there’s one team that can meet the physicality inside with the Gators, it’s Arkansas. The Razorbacks have a potent offense that can compete with anyone in the nation. Everyone talked about Florida’s guards all season and while that tandem is excelling defensively, their offensive production is still inconsistent. Arkansas has the more efficient guard play and the bigs inside to battle with the best front court in the country.
Illinois has the rest advantage and are off a tough loss on the road to the Bruins in OT. Illinois has dropped three of their last five but should be highly motivated tonight. One way to counter the Wolverines is to have big men that can shoot the three which Illinois has, as they’re one of the biggest teams in the country. This is also a clash in styles, as the Fighting Illini play at a slower tempo than Michigan is accustomed to. The Wolverines will look to wrap up the Big Ten regular season title tonight but Illinois has won nine straight in this series and the Wolverines are 3-6 ATS on the road.
