Bob's Past Picks
Seton Hall is fresh off a solid three days in Maui. They return to their smaller campus gym to play, probably, the best in the NEC conference. The Blue Devils are 3-1 ATS on the road with two being an outright victories at Rutgers and Boston College. The Pirates have one of the top defenses in the country and, in Maui, their offense came alive, averaging 80 points over three games. Despite a top defense, Seton Hall struggles to defend the perimeter, where the Blue Devils excel, shooting 35.1%. Central Connecticut State’s defense is decent as they showed in their two big road victories and have the coach to keep this one competitive.
Pitt is off a big win over the Buckeyes at home. Despite that win, the Panthers have lost three of their last five games. Texas A&M has the offensive edge, scoring more than 105 points per game in their last three games while making over 81% from the free throw line. The Panthers defense has allowed 75 points, or more, over three of their last four. Texas A&M is the more physical team down-low and the Panthers will attempt to dictate the pace at home but the could have a difficult time slowing them down and keeping up.
McNeese State has won four start against the Cardinals. However, Incarnate Word covered those four games and eight of the last nine overall. The Cardinals return a lot of production and experience from last season while also adding Tahj Staveskie in the portal. They lost to a Will Wade NcNeese team last season by two points, on the road, and have their main guys back but we know that the Cowboys lost a lot of production with Wade to NC State. The Cowboys are still the top team in the Southland but Incarnate Word has the pieces to keep this one close.
This is only the second true road game of the season for Belmont. The Cougars have definitely played the tougher schedule but their offense hasn’t been has strong in seasons past. Belmont has played more inferior opponents but they’ve handled business easily thus far, 7-0 SU. Their defense has held their opponents to less than 70 points in five of their first seven games. The Cougars defense has struggled defending the arc and creating turnovers.
Yesterday, Vanderbilt handled one of the better defenses in the country so far in the season. Now, they face an even better defense in the Gaels. Saint Mary’s is not as experienced as the Commodores but they have the coaching edge here. The Gaels also have even size inside to compete with Vanderbilt’s 11th ranked efficiency inside the arc. The Gaels have been more efficient from the perimeter, an area that Vanderbilt struggles to defend, allowing their opponents to shoot over 32%. The Commodores are solid from the free throw line but Saint Mary’s is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. The Gaels been to protect the ball as Vanderbilt will want to create turnovers and get out in transition.
This is Kennesaw State’s second true road game of the season. Their only road victory against the Rattlers of Florida A&M, so basically an exhibition. The Eagles are 4-1 SU at home to start the year but they also allow 79.8 points at home. Florida Gulf Coast lacks size inside and that’s where the Owls have most of their success since they struggle from beyond the arc, shooting less than 32%. Both teams are averaging over 20 fouls per game so we can expect a good amount of free throws. Kennesaw State’s defense has allowed, on average, over 94 points over their last three game and this is an Eagles team that can score quickly since they shoot a ton of threes.
No Tyler Bilodeau tonight for UCLA. That didn’t matter much in their last two games but it could tonight. This is also neutral court game but a semi-home game for the Golden Bears. Cal has the offense to stay in this game, despite facing one of the best defenses in the country. Their only loss on the season was by three points to the Wildcats on the road, and their offense has been on fire to start the season. UCLA can also score in bunches and they’ve owned the Golden Bears, winning 12 of the last 13 games. Cal is more talented than last season and should be in this one until the end.
Seton Hall is off the upset to the Wolfpack yesterday. Ever since that crazy overtime game against Troy, the Trojans shot selection hasn’t been the best. Seton Hall makes things very difficult for teams inside the arc, currently 4th in the country. This is a defense that can rattle a USC team that leans heavily on the three and even though the Pirates are trending towards the bottom of the country in defending that area, this is just a gritty team on defense. Seton Hall exploded offensively and may not have the size to matchup but their defense should see them in this one.
Bradley is much better team than their 3-3 SU record. The Tritons have played easy opponents so far and Bradley has been more battle tested. The Braves are the more experienced team and have historically done well on neutral courts. They protect the ball on offense and create takeaways on the defensive end. On paper, UC San Diego has the better defense, but that also goes to their level of competition. With a short number like this, this could come down to free throws. The Braves are shooting 75.4% from the stripe as compared to UC San Diego’s 63.5%, near the bottom of the country.
Neutral court game in Florida, semi-home game for the Owls. Loyola Marymount is off a scare against Gauchos where they did not shoot it well from the free throw line, 51.7%. The Lions have scored over 70 points in each game this season and we can expect points in this one especially with the pace. FAU is near of the bottom of the country in defending the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 37.5% and the Lions have shot 41.8% on the year. Despite their free throw shooting woes, their defense has been more efficient than FAU. The Owls won’t have much success inside the arc and they lean heavily on the three which Loyola Marymount defends well.
Neutral court game in South Dakota. Minnesota leans heavily on Cade Tyson’s scoring and but their team has shot 27% from deep so far. The Dons have the much deeper team with a ten-man rotation with averaging more than 26 minutes. San Francisco shoots the three very well, 29th in the nation, and the Gophers are near the bottom of the county in defending that area. Neither team is particularly strong from the free throw line but with the size advantage for San Francisco, they should have plenty of second chance opportunities especially with the Gophers second leading rebounder out this afternoon. If San Francisco can contain Cade Tyson, their team should be able to do enough to get the victory.
Northern Illinois looks like an improved team from last season despite their 2-3 SU record. The Huskies have the edge offensively, scoring more than 80 points per game. Loyala Chicago isn’t good defensively as last years team as their allowing more than 80 points per game at home. The Huskies rebound the ball well and grab more than eight rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances and have a been more consistent from the free throw line. This is a big number for a team that is 0-5 ATS on the season.
Another neutral court game. Mississippi State offensively is all Josh Hubbard with only one other player averaging double digit points. The Wildcats have only played three games but they have five players averaging in double figures, led by PJ Haggerty. Kansas State is another team that is shooting very well from three, 7th in the nation at 45.7%, also not sustainable. But in this matchup, the Bulldogs has not had the aggressiveness on defense like they had in seasons past. They’ve really struggle protecting the ball to start the year and don’t create them on defense. This neutral court venue could slow down Kansas State’s perimeter shooting, but they have too many offensive players to pick up the slack if needed.
Utah is 5-0 SU but 0-5 ATS. The Utes struggle on the defensive end and aren’t the almost aggressive team. They also allow a ton of high percentage shots and don’t create many turnovers. Cal Poly is a volatile team as they play very fast, shoot a ton of threes and struggle protecting the ball. However, they still can score in bunches with that fast pace. They’re battle tested with an improved defense and only had one blowout loss to the Trojans on opening night.
This line continues to move in Princeton’s favor off back-to-back losses. The Huskies are 2-0 on the road and defeated better teams, currently, than Princeton. The Huskies are currently team in better form, especially defensively. They should be able to win the turnover battle as the Tigers have struggled taking care of the basketball and they’re 75th in the country in steal rate. Northeastern has also been performing better offensively to start the season. The Huskies lost last year’s game at home by three points and will be out looking for revenge.
