Thomas's Picks (1 Live)
BetRivers opened Kentucky -1.5 with the ML -125 for Saturday. Maybe the Wildcats just aren't very good but I'm going to take them here in a buy low spot at home. Indiana has played one true road game and got smacked by a bad Minnesota team. If you can't get this early number, I'm good taking Kentucky up to -3.5. Just make sure four is the cutoff. I don't trust the Cats enough right now to lay more than 3.5. I normally won't release a CBB play unless FD or DK has odds up but I'm going to be traveling on Friday afternoon and probably won't be able to post when more books put out the line.
This number feels a little light for Creighton at home. I think we are getting some value here because the Bluejays are just 5-4. However, the four teams that beat Creighton - Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa State, Nebraska - are all better than them. And all four losses were away from home. Kansas State started out hot but have since lost four of five. In their one true road game this year, Kansas State got blasted by Indiana, 86-69. I think this might be a buy low spot for Creighton at home. I'll lay the 3.5. Bet up to -5.
South Florida is a team I’m projecting to have pretty big home and away splits this season. The Bulls already have a strong win at home over Utah State and I think the line is right to take them here vs. Charleston. This isn’t the same Charleston team we are used to seeing in recent years. They play slower and have already lost to Belmont, Yale, FAU and Liberty by double digits. South Florida has topped 90 points six times this season and I think that trend continues against a Charleston defense that ranks 246th in efficiency. Play up to 14.5.
I'm going to buy low on Northwestern returning home after two straight losses. I'm not high on Ohio State this season. They faced a soft home schedule then lost in their first road test against a bad Pitt team. Northwestern hasn't played a true home game since Nov. 10 and that's creating some value with this line. I think the wrong team is favored here. Take Northwestern as a dog or short favorite up to -2.
I'm jumping on Purdue early at -4.5 Saturday. I like the matchup at home for the Boilermakers. Iowa State is playing its first true road game this season and I worry about their metrics guarding the perimeter, despite facing a soft home schedule so far this year. The Cyclones do have a really good win over St. John's but playing on a neutral court with a few hundred fans and going on the road in front of a raucous crowd isn't the same thing. I think the Boilermakers will make more perimeter shots, avoid turnovers and I give them an edge on the offensive boards. The line may move against me but I'm fine with 4.5. Bet up to 5.5.
Half Unit Play. I'm going to take a shot here with UC Davis getting 9.5 points. I have these teams rated closer than the large spread indicates. Both teams have played well the two times they stepped up in class. Hawaii has close losses to Arizona State and Oregon, while UC Davis upset Nevada and played tough at Colorado. I think the Rainbow Warriors' metrics are a bit overrated right now thanks to a soft schedule. Another factor could be turnovers. Hawaii's biggest weakness is turnovers and UC Davis pressures the ball at an above average rate. Ten of the last 13 games between these two have been decided by eight points or less. I'll take the 9.5 for a half unit. Play to 8.5.
Half Unit Play. I like this spot for Notre Dame. Missouri has played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far with seven home games and a lone road game at Howard. The Tigers have faced just one team ranked in KenPom’s Top 230 and that was 4-4 Minnesota. I like the Irish this season and I thought they played pretty well in losses to Ohio State, Houston and Kansas away from home. I think this is a good matchup for Notre Dame facing a Missouri squad playing its first tough opponent of the season on the road. I'm making ND +1.5 a half unit play. If the line moves to 2.5 I'll add another half unit.
George Mason is the best mid-major team I’ve seen and I love this matchup. Head coach Tony Skinn has done a great job luring power conference talent to George Mason. The Patriots have a massive edge defensively in this game. Cornell has scored at least 86 points in six of seven games. However, that was against bad competition. What stands out to me is the one game where they faced a competent defense versus Illinois State. The Redbirds held Cornell to 65 points and 19.4% from three-point range. The Big Red live and die by the three-pointer and will face a Patriots’ defense holding opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc. I’ll back George Mason to roll at home. Bet up to -12.5.
One thing I like to do after a few games is fade bad defenses on the road. Kansas State is rolling offensively but the Wildcats have allowed an average of 85.5 points in their last four games. That concerns me with Kansas State playing its first true toad game at Indiana. The Hoosiers haven't played anyone yet but I like the roster Darian DeVries has assembled. Indiana should be able to score at will near the basket and I give them a big defensive edge in this matchup. I'll lay the 8.5. Bet up to 9.5.
Jumping on this play for Monday early. I actually make Alabama the small favorite here. I'll take the 4.5 in a run and gun game that the Tide love to play. Bama has already beat St. John's and Illinois and were tied with Purdue late. Give me the 4.5 points at DK on the opener. Bet to +3.5.
I’m going to buy low on Southern Illinois here. The Salukis have lost two straight but they were on the road to North Dakota State by seven and Nevada in overtime. I think those losses are leading to value with this number. I have Delaware rated low this season. The Hens have already lost to Bucknell and D-II Wilmington University. Maybe my numbers are off early but I have Southern Illinois rated as a mid-tier MVC team and Delaware near the bottom of the CAA. I’ll lay the 6.5 on a neutral court. Bet to -7.5.
Half unit play. I think the line is off in this game. It opened Coastal Carolina -1.5 but I made the Chanticleers -5. Coastal isn't a great Sun Belt team, although I have them rated a lot higher than Western Illinois. Coastal defeated a good Winthrop team and played well at Jacksonville State. I think there is value with the Chanticleers in this road spot as short favorites. I took the ML -128 for a half unit at BetMGM and would play the spread up to -3.
I’m going to buy low on Texas A&M after two straight losses to Oklahoma State and UCF. I’m not surprised the Aggies are having some growing pains early. New coach Bucky McMillan brought in 10 new players and his frenetic “Bucky Ball” style of play from Samford. The key to that style is constant ball pressure that creates easy baskets off turnovers. This is a much better matchup for Texas A&M. Montana also wants to play fast but they should have issues here against an Aggies team that is deeper and more athletic. I expect Texas A&M to create a lot of turnovers with its pressure defense and wear down a Montana squad that ranks 331st in bench minutes. Lay up to -17.
I'm going to take a shot with Omaha laying 8.5 at home. The Mavericks lost their two top scorers from last season but do return three starters and five key reserves from the team that went to the NCAA Tournament. Omaha is 0-3 but all those games were away from home versus quality opponents. Two of the losses were by a combined 10 points. I like this spot for the Mavericks playing their first home game where they have won 10 straight against a Southern Utah squad I have rated very low. Play up to -10.