Texas A&M has lost back-to-back games by a combined 36 points...

I'm going to take a shot with Omaha laying 8.5 at home. The Mavericks lost their two top scorers from last season but do return three starters and five key reserves from the team that went to the NCAA Tournament. Omaha is 0-3 but all those games were away from home versus quality opponents. Two of the losses were by a combined 10 points. I like this spot for the Mavericks playing their first home game where they have won 10 straight against a Southern Utah squad I have rated very low. Play up to -10.

It’s still early to use metrics but this game could get ugly in the turnover department. UMass lives off of pressuring the ball and creating turnovers. Meanwhile, Le Moyne had 24 turnovers against Bowling Green and 18 versus Xavier. The other issue for Le Moyne is they really only play six guys. I expect UMass’ pressure defense to wear them down and get a lot of easy buckets off steals. This line might move against us but I’m good with 11.5. I make the line -16. Bet UMass up to -15.

This bet is more of a fade against Minnesota. Niko Medved was an excellent long-term hire for the Gophers but he is probably still another recruiting class away from having a roster that can compete in the Big Ten. Medved put together a team of nine transfers from mostly mid-major schools and this will be their first test of the season. I thought Missouri was the toughest place to play in the country last year and the Tigers’ frenetic style is tough to prepare for if you aren’t used to seeing it. I think Missouri rolls at home. Bet up to -8.

This line opened 18.5 then fell to 15.5. It may dip further but that number is in my wheelhouse, so I'm going to grab it. New Florida State head coach Luke Loucks said he wants the Noles to play at the fastest pace in CBB. So far, so good. FSU topped 100 points in wins over Alcorn State and Alabama State playing at a frenetic pace. However, teams that play fast against Florida typically don’t live to tell about it. Granted, the Gators lost to Arizona playing that style but the Wildcats have an elite roster. This is a tough spot for a new coach with an entirely new roster going on the road for the first time. Bet up to -17.5.

Damon Stoudamire spent all offseason preaching to his team they need show up every night regardless of opponent. The Yellow Jackets then opened the season by defeating lowly Maryland Eastern Shore…by four points in OT. Maybe it took that scare for Stoudamire’s message to get through because Georgia Tech hammered Bryant by 29 in its next game. I like this Yellow Jackets roster, so I’m going to chalk up the struggles vs. Eastern Shore as a first game anomaly. SE Louisiana is playing its third road game in seven days. The Yellow Jackets should dominate in the paint with their size advantage. Maybe Georgia Tech can’t be trusted as a big favorite but I see value with this early number. Bet up to -17.

I love me a good rebound spot and this certainly qualifies after Boise State suffered one of the biggest upsets in CBB history against a school that operates out of a strip mall. Sounds like one of the seven colleges I attended. Hey, I figured out a way to get a four-year degree without ever taking a math, science or foreign language class. Utah Valley is a perfect opponent for Boise to get right at home. The Wolverines have a completely new roster that lacks scoring punch on paper. Boise coach Leon Rice prides himself on defense. I expect a much better effort from the Broncos after Hawaii Pacific scored 79 points and shot 60% in the opener. Lay up to -14 with Boise.

UAB is a team I’m looking to bet against early in the season. Andy Kennedy is an excellent coach but the Blazers are replacing every player from last year's team. Many of the replacements are from junior college and lower-tier mid-major schools, so it might take Kennedy some time to find the right mix. NC State overhauled its roster as well, although Will Wade isn’t relying on junior college players. The Wolfpack are loaded with high-level transfers, led by Texas Tech’s Darrion Williams. UAB wants to play fast but that could backfire against a deeper team with more athletes. Bet up to 16.5.

Auburn is a great team this year but we are getting a little value here after the Tigers needed OT to beat Bethune-Cookman Monday. Bethune-Cookman is an athletic team that has some real scorers on its roster. They gave Auburn problems in transition finishing +12 in fast break points. Merrimack isn't built the same way and I don't think they can exploit some of Auburn's weaknesses like Bethune-Cookman did. I went against Merrimack on Monday and pointed out they must replace 90% of the team's scoring from a year ago and return just two lightly used reserves. Merrimack shot just 37% against South Dakota State and were outrebounded by 13. I make this number -26.5 and would play it up to 24.5.

Merrimack is a team I'm looking to bet against early. Head coach Joe Gallo must replace 90% of the team's scoring from a year ago and returns just two lightly used reserves with any playing experience. The Warriors have a tough opener in a "neutral" game vs. South Dakota State being played in Sioux Falls, SD, just miles away from their the Jackrabbits' campus. South Dakota State is my preseason No. 2 team in the Summit and I make them -8 here. I'd back them up to -7.

First play of the season. Two re-tooled rosters with different looks. George Mason brought in experienced players in the transfer portal with six seniors on the roster. Meanwhile, Wofford is very young with 10 new players and three new coaches. Entering the season, I have Wofford rated low, so I'll back George Mason at home. Play up to -14.

Half Unit. Let's make the last pick of the season interesting by taking an over with Houston. I rate Duke's defense 10 spots higher than Florida. The Gators are good defensively, although their pace allows for some easy baskets. Florida has given up over 70 points in 11 of its last 12 games. The one time they didn't, Norfolk State scored 69. No one will mistake the Cougars for Alabama but they do look to shoot threes in transition when the opportunity is there. Houston topped this number in games against Alabama, Arizona, BYU (twice) and Gonzaga - teams that like to speed up the tempo. I'll take a shot they get to 71 here. Thank you for following my CBB plays this season!

I'm doing research for content on The Crown at SL and a game looks to have a pretty big edge for one team. Oregon State lost its top three players to the portal: Michael Rataj (16.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Parsa Fallah (12.8 ppg) and Nate Kingz (11.8 ppg). The Beavers will have a thin lineup for The Crown, while it appears two of UCF's top players are participating. Leading scorer Keyshawn Hall entered the portal Friday evening but Darius Johnson (16.7 ppg) and Jordan Ivy-Curry (12.9 ppg) are expected to play. I don't bet many lower tournament games but it appears UCF will have a significant lineup edge. I will lay the 4.5 for a half unit. Good up to -6.5.

Betting underdogs in this tournament is a good way to go broke but 4.5 feels like a lot here. Get ready for a bloodbath. I bet Tennessee +390 to make the Final Four, anticipating this matchup. The Vols are one of the few teams in the country that can match Houston’s physicality. In a game this tight, we try to find any slight advantage to give us a betting edge. How the officials call the game will be key. Neither team gets the free throw line a ton, although Houston fouls a lot more than Tennessee on paper. If the refs have a quick whistle, that should benefit the Vols. In a dogfight, I'll take the 4.5 points.

I'm riding with the Gators here. I make this number -7.5. I like top seeds that get pushed in Round 2 to come back and take care of business in the Sweet 16 when the matchup is right. I thought Florida was a little tight early facing the two-time defending champions. Now that they got past UConn I think they relax and play loose. I like the matchup vs. a Maryland team that also wants to play fast but isn't deep. The Terps are tough to blowout. They have lost just one game by 6+ points all year. However, I think the Gators are on a different level and they pull away to cover. DK has 5.5 but 6.5 is fine too.