Chip's Picks (2 Live)
Chip's Past Picks
When Purdue’s offense is rolling, much of its success is based around a two-man game with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Unfortunately in Houston the Boilermakers are facing one of the best pick-and-roll defenses in the entire country, with the Cougars not only getting stops at high level but forcing turnovers in those situations. And Houston not only has a matchup advantage against one of Purdue’s best offensive weapons but also the personnel to exploit what’s been a leaky interior defense throughout the second half of the season. LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Houston’s bigs should be able to get good looks at the rim and as long as they can convert it’s a game that the Cougars should be able to control.
An important note here that unlike most Sweet 16 and Elite Eight sites, this Indianapolis-based regional will not be played in an arena but Lucas Oil Stadium. Kentucky shot a combined 24-for-48 on its three-pointers in the two wins against Tennessee in the regular season, so not only are we expecting some regression in any gym but potentially a major one given the change of venue. Tennessee wants to disrupt Kentucky’s flow offensively and limit the Wildcats’ transition opportunities, so I’m expecting patient possessions and plenty of offensive rebounding efforts on the Vols’ part. Less Kentucky touches means less scoring in the game, which I see going under.
Chris Beard is an elite coach at scouting an opponent and preparing his team to take away their best option, and Michigan State has been a slow-starting bunch all year long. It should be noted, while I do think the first half will be lower-scoring I am not predicting a slower pace necessarily. This will be about stops on both ends of the floor by experienced teams who have great coaches. After halftime when the tweaks and adjustments get put into place the game could break open — and that’s where I lean Michigan State to continue the trend of being a second half team — but those variables are too difficult to nail down before tip.
This Arkansas team is ready for war, believing in each other and finding ways to win even when the shots aren’t falling, as evidenced by going 8-for-43 from behind the arc across wins against Kansas and St. John's. The news that Adou Thiero is available to play limited minutes is not insignificant, because Arkansas will need versatile defenders against the space of Texas Tech’s dangerous and efficient offense, but it is the size that the Red Raiders give up that could be the difference. This is a bet that Jonas Aidoo, Trevon Brazile and Big Z are not going to let JT Toppin have clear looks inside, giving Arkansas a chance to extend their tournament run.
Every Duke game since Feb. 14 when Cooper Flagg has been healthy has resulted in 80 or more points for the Blue Devils. Now we introduce an Arizona team that pushes the pace and started to slip a little on the defensive side at the end of the regular season. If this game plays out as the oddsmakers are expecting there will be plenty of Arizona chasing the game late, and Duke just happens to be the best free throw shooting team left in the NCAA Tournament.
The depth mismatch is impossible to ignore here, as Maryland not only leans on its starting five more than anyone else left in the tournament but Florida has a deeper rotation of bigs that could cause problems if this game gets a tight whistle down low. The Gators can endure a couple of cheap fouls to Alex Condon or Reuben Chinyelu because Thomas Waugh and Micah Handlogten are more than capable of giving you good minutes off the bench. But if Derik Queen and Julian Reese get into foul trouble, Maryland’s rebounding efforts take a huge hit in a way that’s going to totally change the matchup.
BYU has been ahead of the number consistently coming down the stretch of the season. We know the Cougars are 11-1 since Feb. 10 with the only loss coming to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, but the performances have been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations as the team is 10-2 against the spread in that same span. The X-factor here, not just on a BYU cover but a straight-up win, is the performance of 6-9 freshman Egor Demin. When Demin is playing at a high level he makes BYU a matchup nightmare, and given his performance in the opening rounds I think he can carry it to Newark.
I’m going to jump on the other side of what I think might be an overreaction to Gonzaga absolutely pasting Georgia in the opening round. That was one of the most experienced programs of the 21st Century when it comes to the NCAA Tournament going up against a group that hadn’t been in the Big Dance in a decade. Houston is clearly on a different level, but it’s also hitting a different gear here in the tournament as made clear by a total dismantling of SIU-Edwardsville on Thursday. The Cougars’ defense can cause real problems for Gonzaga’s guards, and I think that prevents the high-powered offense from ever finding a rhythm.
BYU has continued to impress here in the second half of the season and the Cougars get high marks for avoiding what many thought could be an upset special against VCU. This is a deep BYU rotation that’s built to sustain the rigors of a tournament run, with eight players averaging double-digit minutes per game and a handful of players who could lead the team in scoring on any given night. I like that versatility as a tough prep for Wisconsin, which has had some defensive issues against its toughest opponents.
This is a wildly low line for two teams that may not push the pace but do operate at a pretty efficient clip when it comes to the offensive end. Drake ranks No. 362 out of 364 Division I teams when it comes to getting out in transition but good offensive rebounding allows for even more chances to score in the half-court, and as a fairly sizable underdog the expectation is that Ben McCollum’s crew will be chasing the game a little bit and can’t afford to milk away the clock. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, spaces the floor well and can heat up from deep.
There aren’t many coaches in America that I want on a two-day turnaround, with a quick scout and implementation of a gameplan, than Rick Pitino. The Johnnies may have gotten off to a slow start against Omaha but they hit enough shots in the second half to think that if Arkansas gives them open looks they can make the Razorbacks pay in a way that Kansas could not in its second-half drought. St. John’s is 11-3-1 against the spread in road or neutral games this season, because defense travels and Pitino gets this group ready for war every time they’re in hostile territory.
We’re going to keep riding Will Wade’s Cowboys after getting even more than we were hoping for in the opening round upset of Clemson. After the win, McNeese has a wagering profile that includes covering the spread against Alabama, Clemson and Mississippi State, all away from home. Now they face a Purdue team that’s been wildly inconsistent defensively and is overly reliant on Braden Smith as an offensive creator. Smith will be a huge factor in getting Purdue settled when McNeese brings the press, but it might only be enough to avoid the outright upset. The underdog played like the more physical team in McNeese’s first game, and I’m expecting that intensity to carry over into another close game.
Dana Altman is an excellent tournament coach, and his Oregon teams have won at least one game in every postseason tournament they’ve competed in (NCAA, NIT, CBI) since he arrived in Eugene in 2010. The Ducks face a unique foe in Liberty, but have a couple of edges that contribute to the opportunity to win big on Friday night in Seattle. The first and most basic advantage is travel, as Liberty has had to fly cross-country from Lynchburg, Va. to Seattle while Oregon makes the short trip north. There’s also how Liberty fared against bigger and more athletic teams, a point that suggests that Oregon will be able to really overpower the flames with dynamic scoring threats like Nate Bittle and TJ Bamba.