Nebraska was 10-0 at home in Big Ten play last season. ...

Texas' defense is playing at such a high level I find it hard to see Kentucky scoring that many points. So even if the Longhorns are running a "lookahead" style playbook with nothing too exotic in advance of next week's Texas A&M game the floodgates are going to break eventually. There's too much talent at the skill positions for Texas to not hit a couple explosive plays, and that's all it should take to cover this number.

When Wake Forest's offense has clicked at a high level the Demon Deacons have been able to hang with even the most talented teams in the ACC, but that just hasn't been the case in 2024. Miami could be a bit slow-starting coming out of an off week with a Noon start at home, and the Deacs don't want to create more possessions for Cam Ward.

I'm expecting a big-time bounce back from Syracuse after a devastating loss to Boston College last week. The Orange out-gained the Eagles, got more first downs and carved up BC through the air but a trio of failed fourth downs and an early turnover left Syracuse six points short. This is too many points to lay against a Syracuse offense that can move the ball, score and should be sharper this week.

These are two teams going in opposite directions as Arizona has not only lost five straight games but done so while being the favorite in three of those games. Houston has won three of its last four and is building confidence in what they do coming off a big win against Kansas State. In a battle of two first-year coaches, I trust Willie Fritz in this late-season spot.

I don't know when the oddsmakers are going to learn their lesson with the Commodores in 2024. Vanderbilt is 6-0 against the spread as an underdog in 2024 with four of those also being outright victories (Virginia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn). Diego Pavia can provide the elusiveness needed to evade South Carolina's aggressive defensive front, and the Gamecocks are in a big-time letdown spot after last weekend's top-10 win against Texas A&M.

Kansas has settled down after a rough start to the season and now catch an Iowa State team reeling off its first loss of the season. Lance Leipold has been a 3-point underdog to Iowa State in each of the last two years and won both meetings outright, and after watching the competitiveness in a two-point loss to Kansas State I think this is a spot where the Jayhawks could win outright again.

Iowa overs have been a bit of a wagon this year but the Hawkeyes are running into a UCLA defense that has done a good job of limiting teams like Oregon, Penn State and Nebraska below their season averages for scoring. I think the Bruins have been feisty enough to keep this game a bit lower scoring to give themselves a shot at the upset.

Both teams have injury issues at quarterback, but it's SMU's entire roster that's looking a little bit banged up heading into one of the biggest ACC games of the year. Pitt has found ways to exceed oddsmakers' expectations all year and in a game that I think will be decided by one possession it's a great spot to take the Panthers with the hook.

Death Valley at night is a different animal, and one that I think Louisville is ill-prepared for given the inconsistencies in the Cards' performances in recent weeks. Clemson has won all eight meetings between these two programs in the last decade and covered in the last six, and that should continue on Saturday night.

Rivalries like this with an annual spot in the calendar for both teams make it easier to back trends, and the recent history provides some very strong data pointing in Georgia's direction. The favorite has covered in 7 of the last 8 meetings and the last 10 meetings have all been decided by double digits. This game has great tradition around the stadium but on the field it's rarely been competitive, and I could see Georgia continuing that trend with a tone-setting win coming out of the off week.

While it is admittedly terrifying to take an under in a game involving Ashton Jeanty, I think we've hit a point in the schedule where the points are slowing down in Boise games before the totals are. Overs in Boise State games went 4-0 in non-conference play but are just 1-2 in conference play with a pair of unders the last two times out. San Diego State has also been playing lower scoring games in general, with an average of 45.9 points per game (113th in FBS) in Aztec games this season.

The Sunflower State Showdown should be packed with points thanks to a Kansas offense that has found its footing over the last couple of weeks and a Kansas State offense that remains one of the best in the Big 12. Plus in terms of trends both teams have been good over teams in conference play, with the total going over in the last four Kansas games and the last three Kansas State games.

There is too much familiarity in this matchup to think that either team is going to blow out the other. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee was the offensive coordinator for Duke coach Manny Diaz when both were at Miami, and as if Diaz -- a good defensive mind -- didn't already know what SMU to do himself he hired SMU's old offensive coordinator, Jonathan Brewer, for his first staff with the Blue Devils. Duke's defensive playmaking drags teams down to their level, and I think that group comes up big in keeping the Mustangs from ever running away with the game.

Two years ago Mike Norvell and Florida State walked into Hard Rock Stadium and put a big number on the board (45-3) in Mario Cristobal's first game against the Seminoles as Miami's head coach. If given the opportunity, I do not expect Mario to hold back on the opportunity to run it up and keep Cam Ward's Heisman campaign rolling.