For the Cowboys to have a chance at pulling off the upset and really even keeping this game close, Prescott will have to be at the top of his game. This is a spot where I expect Dallas to be playing from behind for the bulk of the game, and the Cowboys top offensive threats are pass catchers CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. Look for Prescott to rack up plenty of garbage time yardage as well.

Smith's performances against the Cowboys in 2024 were polar opposites. One game with a 2-14 stat line, and the other was at 6-120-2. at the end of the day, Smith is explosive with the ball in his hands, and could push this number with as few as 2-3 receptions.

Aubrey is arguably the best in the business right now, and is basically in range once the Cowboys cross the 50-yard line. I expect the Cowboys to have some success moving the ball, particularly through the air, but the Eagles' defense will be hard to score on in the red zone.

We are expecting a game script that calls for the Cowboys, who should have limited rushing upside, to pass heavily on order to keep pace. Prescott's career average is 258, including 265.5 in 2023, his last full season.

The Eagles under a TD would have been anno-brainer play, but as the game draws closer and the line gets more outsized, value has shifted to the Cowboys. Philadelphia is the far more talented team, especially after the Micah Parsons trade, but Dallas has been operating without him for months. Dak Prescott is healthy and George Pickens enhances the playmaking options against some questionable CBs. Week 1 is always tough to prognosticate, but this feels like a perception vs. reality play, especially considering division underdogs cover 65% of the time during kickoff week. Will sprinkle a parlay with the over and go full with Philly as a top-tier teaser leg, likely alongside Denver on Sunday.

I was late on this one and the number has risen. But I still think Jake Ferguson records at least 36 receiving yards Thursday. George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb will help Ferguson, as he becomes priority No. 3 from the Eagles' perspective. Ferguson thrives when Dak Prescott plays quarterback and puts up depressed numbers when playing with anyone else. With Dallas likely playing from behind, back Ferguson in the opener.

Dallas addressed their sub-par run game this offseason by acquiring RB Javonte Williams, but I’m not sure how effective his rushing attack will be. Williams has always been a better pass-catching RB than a downfield runner, and I expect Dallas to utilize him in the screen game. Eagles DC Vic Fangio is excellent at limiting explosive plays, and he returns 4/5 of Philly’s top-tier DB’s to his defense. If the Cowboys wideouts struggle to create separation, Prescott will check down to his running backs. Williams recorded at least 1 reception and at least 2 targets in every game he played in last season, and can clear this total easily if he gets a couple looks. 

If you think this game will feature the Eagles running a ton, it's pretty unlikely that Javonte Williams, who has been largely ineffective since coming back from injury the last two years, is going to crack 40 yards. Brian Schottenheimer will no doubt want to run the ball, but I'm not sure how long the Cowboys can try to jam the rock into a nasty interior defense for Philadelphia before letting Dak Prescott throw the ball. This number has trickled down to 34.5 and might go a little lower, but Williams should see enough carries to prevent it from cratering. He's only topped 50 yards a handful of times in the last two years, and it's been with a massive workload against easier rush defenses.

Let's lean into a game script for this matchup. If the Cowboys' defense is magically able to stop the Eagles' run game, then maybe this one is in trouble. But if the Cowboys get behind at all, it's easy to see Schottenheimer panicking a little and going full pass in this position. That might not equate to great success for Dak (although I tend to think he'll end up with a decent game), but it will end up with Dak passing a lot. The juice is pretty high on this in some places at the moment, but you can still find a good price if you shop around.

Philly will want to show out for the fans, but I'm not sure the Eagles are going to be excessively gaudy on offense either. This game should be a whole lot of Saquon Barkley, and if it gets out of hand, a decent amount of Will Shipley. The Eagles probably wouldn't mind running up the score on their hated rival, but beating Dallas is way down the list of things they want to accomplish, well behind "defending a Super Bowl title." I think Philly can chomp enough clock in the run game on every possession that they get out of here with a low-scoring, fairly casual victory.

Javonte Williams begins a new chapter in the NFL tonight as a member of the Dallas Cowboys. While with the Denver Broncos he showcased that he can be a target out of the backfield, where he averaged nearly fifty catches over the last two seasons. Against an aggressive Eagles defense look for Prescott to need to use his checkdown option frequently to avoid pressure and sacks. Take Williams to clear his yardage prop in receiving tonight.

History confirms that the Super Bowl hangover can be a real thing. That doesn't mean it applies to every season for the defending champs, but it does bubble up frequently. Here, we have a titllist receiving a pile of points in a heated rivalry. Hmm. Overshadowed by the trade of Dallas LB Micah Parsons after contentious negotiations is its acquisition of run-stopping DT Kenny Clark in the Parsons deal as well as WR George Pickens. Cowbys QB Dak Prescott, who missed last year's pair of decisive Philadelphia wins in the series, is 4-1 SU against the Eagles and returns healthy. Keep an eye on possible inclement weather, which could favor Philly's ground game headlined by RB Saquon Barkley.

Bet365 @ -130. After injuring his ankle in Week 1 last season, Jake Ferguson cleared this receptions line in five of the next six games he played with Dak Prescott, seeing at least seven targets in six of those contests. Dating back to 2023, Ferguson is averaging 4.5 catches on 6.4 targets in games started by Dak Prescott, with an 18% target share. Yes, George Pickens is in town now, but I see that as a plus for Ferguson, as Pickens down-field ability should open up the short/intermediate middle for the tight end. And with the Dallas run game expected to struggle, and both Pickens and CeeDee Lamb drawing very tough assignments, I have Ferguson slotted for seven targets on Thursday Night.

We suspect all of the unders we saw in preseason might replicate in this opener, perhaps just coincidentally, but factors suggest this one won't be any shootout. Especially for Dallas, as the Cowboys endured another bumpy offseason full of the usual distractions, but we also suspect that Dak Prescott and the offense will be slow out of the gate, and Dallas scored only 13 points across the two meetings vs. Philly a season ago. Vic Fangio's defense was just as responsible for all of the Eagles success last season and knows how to put the clamps on Prescott. As the Philly offense also ramps up, getting to 48 points looks a tall order on Thursday. Play Cowboys-Eagles Under.

Ferguson is coming off a down season thanks to injuries (to himself and to Dak Prescott). This keeps him under the radar and gives us a chance to take the over on a low number. The Cowboys are likely to be trailing a majority of the game and Vic Fangio is likely to defend against the big play from Pickens and Lamb. That leaves Dak's safety blanket underneath. Dak has a good history with Ferguson and that history was memorialized in a contract extension for Ferguson this July (4 years/52 million). He's a big part of this offense. Zack Baun is great in coverage but Ferguson will get enough open looks. [Line available at FD and Caesars].

The Cowboys figure to be playing from behind more after trading away Micah Parsons, hence this spread moving 1.5 to 2 points. That gives the passing game more opportunity to rack up stats, and that's even more true early in the season with no trustworthy run game established. Pickens may be closer to a 1B receiver than a No. 2 and we don't realize it yet, so I like playing his yardage Over at about 20 yards less than CeeDee Lamb's for the opener.

The Eagles were in a funk to start last season before they began to rally after their bye. Once they started riding Saquon Barkley down the field and stopped caring about A.J. Brown's moping, the Eagles and Hurts took off and dominated the league. Including the playoffs, Hurts finished with nine passing TDs in his last six games played and had Over 1.5 in four of the six. The SportsLine model projects Hurts for two passing touchdowns in Week 1 because there is no Micah Parsons to disrupt him and the Eagles are projected to go Over the 27.5 team total. We are banking on four TDs and only one tush push, one Barkley rushing touchdown and two passing scores.

DeVonta Smith accounts for 27% of his team's receptions when active, but 35% of the team's receiving TDs, which is just under the 36% that A.J. Brown accounts for. But Brown's line is in the +160s for this game, so we'll take the better value with Smith. Our model not only shows great value, but it would price him at -155 based on our projection.

This is the last 6.5 on our board and I guess I have to take it because it sure now looks like Micah Parsons will not play for Dallas. And even if he does, what shape is he in? Do I expect Jerry Jones to cave eventually? Yeah, but we are a week from the season and Parsons has not done a thing in camp. I know I gained about 15 pounds this summer but also pretty sure Parsons isn't sitting around eating Starbursts and Ramen and probably is actually exercising unlike self. (Does Golden Tee count as exercise?) I'm not going to be playing many spreads this high on favorites. Just not my thing. But we have to have a Kickoff Game opinion.

This line is considerably better than the +140 ESPN is offering and way better than the +123 at BetRivers. We are getting +$$$ on a line that we have well over 50%. Philadelphia actually started last season kind of slow, especially in the passing game. A.J. Brown only had one TD in a seven game stretch. But Philly's triumphant close to the season started with Brown scoring in 5 of his last 7 games despite only having 3, 6, and 3 receptions in three of the games. For his career, Brown has scored a TD in over 50% of his home games. Who knows if Micah Parsons will play and the Cowboys defense could be a mess.

This line should be solidly north of -7, as I make it -8.5 and a few other respectable models have it at -10. The Eagles should control the line of scrimmage and have little issue scoring in Week 1. Lay it at -6.5 (-120).

Philadelphia outscored Dallas 75-13 in their two games in 2024. These are different teams, but I still believe this is a fairly heavy mismatch. The Eagles are loaded on both sides of the ball and look primed to make another deep run. The Cowboys got better on offense, but their best defensive player, Micah Parsons, is a major question mark at this point in time. I expect a double-digit win for the Eagles in the season opener.

I'd lay up to -10.5 on the Eagles if I had to against the visiting Cowboys. The Eagles come in with almost the entire same team that won the Super Bowl, with all the dynamic players at each position, and the Cowboys come in with hope that their quarterback, Dak Prescott, will be 100% healed. There's dysfunction in the Cowboys, which is partly attributed to their owner. He creates chaos. For the Cowboys to cover this game or win, they're going to have to play an amazing game at the top of their ability. It's possible, but I'm betting that it's not likely. The Eagles can play an average game and still blow out the Cowboys. Eagles cover.

The Cowboys added offensive firepower this offseason with George Pickens, and as such I'm hesitant to fade them on a big number as backdoor covers should be in play. But I've have to take the Eagles short of seven as I have the line closer to -10 based on team ratings. The Eagles lost several defenders this offseason but still have pass rush aplenty to attack a Dallas O-line that may be without Tyler Guyton. A Cowboys D missing multiple starters due to injury rehab is also in danger of not having Micah Parsons for Week 1 if his contract issues aren't resolved. I'm hopping on 6.5 now while it's still available but would play -7 if I had to.

The Eagles averaged 27.2 points per game in 2024, and they scored a combined 75 points in their two games against Dallas. Philadelphia will again by one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the NFL. The Cowboys (20.6 ppg in 2024) should be more explosive on offense this season with the return of Dak Prescott and the addition of George Pickens. Dallas should also benefit offensively from being in Year 3 of Brian Schottenheimer's offensive system. In the end, I expect the 2025 NFL Kickoff Game to turn into an offensive shootout.