New York
Jets
NYJ
Last 5 ATS
W/L1-3
ATS2-2
O/U1-3-0
FINAL SCORE
24
-
31
Detroit
Lions
DET
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-2
ATS1-3
O/U4-0-0
Last 5 ATS
1-3
Win /Loss
2-2
2-2
Spread
1-3
1-3-0
Over / Under
4-0-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Davis played just two offensive snaps in Sunday's loss to the Bears.
Ya-Sin (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined in Week 5 at Arizona, Richard Silva of The Detroit News reports.
McGregor (pectoral) suffered a season-ending injury during Sunday's loss to the Bears, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Brownlee is in concussion protocol as Week 5 approaches, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.
Fitzpatrick recorded 16 tackles (eight solo) and an interception during the Jets' 23-12 loss to the Bears on Sunday.
Bates connected on all four of his field-goal tries and both of his point-after attempts in Sunday's 32-26 loss to the Panthers.
LaPorta brought in eight of 13 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown in the Lions' 32-26 loss to the Panthers on Sunday night.
Williams secured six of eight targets for 102 yards in the Lions' 32-26 loss to the Panthers on Sunday night.
Goff completed 32 of 52 passes for 412 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions in the Lions' 32-26 loss to the Panthers on Sunday night.
Sanders made both of his field-goal tries and went 1-for-2 on PATs during Sunday's 23-12 loss to the Bears.
Geno Smith has had some of the biggest games in his career against the Detroit Lions. The high scoring affairs have forced the passing game. I expect that today and for the Jets to have to break Smith out of the ball control offense we have seen the first two weeks. He had the lead against the Titans, and the Jets tried to protect a ten point second half lead against the Packers. Look for rookie Kenyon Sadiq who has been effective in the game management offense, to break out today. Take his over.
This is more of a circumstantial play than anything else as the line does feel a touch outsized considering the Lions’ defensive issues. So far this season, New York beat the second-worst team in the league and lost to what appears to be the worst-performing team in the league. Detroit coughed up a huge lead to New Orleans and lost as Buffalo opened its new stadium. The Lions are on extra rest, while the Jets are coming off an overtime loss. They can score points in a hurry – especially on their home track – and if the secondary can improve just a bit, with Adonai Mithcell out, Detroit should be able to power past a touchdown margin.
Caesar’s (+110). It didn’t work out for me last week, but I’m going right back to Kenyon Sadiq today. No Adonai Mitchell and no Mason Taylor - Sadiq will be thrust into a massive role aside Garrett Wilson. The Lions pass defense has been abysmal to start the season, and they’re down three safeties due to injury already. Look for a breakout game from the rookie in what should be a high scoring affair.
Most knew that the Jets defense was going to be scrappy, as they’re holding their opponents to 15 points per game. Detroit returns home after a great second half, in defeat, to the Bills, still putting up 31 points. This is the best offense the Jets have faced yet and if they want to stay in this one, they’ll have to score points, cause Jared Goff and Detroit will get theirs eventually. The Lions defense, under new DC Kelvin Sheppard, has the second worst defense in the league, allowing 35.5 points per game. New York might not get there but should be able to add some points against this shaky Lions defense to get over the total.
Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, we know to target the Lions' secondary. The Lions have given up the 3rd most yards to wide receivers the first two weeks. So we like the matchup for Garrett Wilson. I also think the game script will be right too. We also know how aggressive Dan Campbell is, and coming off a loss, I expect the Lions' offense to be aggressive and put up plenty of points at home. Add to that, the Lions' defense is aggressive in blitzing. And when Geno Smith has been blitzed this season, he's targeted Wilson 33% of the time.
Green Bay Packers blew a lead in Week 1 and were blown out by an awful Falcons team at Lambeau Field in Week 3. They beat the Jets in Week 2. The Lions are the far better team here despite all of their injuries and I believe they right the ship now back at home after suffering a loss to the Bills that we all expected anyway.. which was last Thursday, so the wounded cats also arrive on Sunday with extra rest. I made the number 7.5, so I think 6.5 is a green light. Finally, Dan Campbell has been excellent as a coach, at home, when coming off a loss.
Jets No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson only has 14 targets through two games. Judging from reports, it's an issue the team wants to correct. Sunday in Detroit would be a good place to start, as the Jets will need a big game from Wilson to keep up. No. 2 receiver Adonai Mitchell is dealing with a finger injury that limited him in practice Thursday. Facing a Lions' defense that's given up the most yards to opposing wideouts, as well as facing his good friend D.J. Reed, look for Wilson to draw about 10 targets and clear this prop total.
Jameson Williams is typically more explosive at home and indoors. Last season he averaged 19.4 yards per catch in Detroit, 15.6 on the road. Now he's back at home in a game that I project to be very competitive. Williams has run the sixth-most routes in the NFL and should put his quiet start behind him Sunday.
This price dipped a lot closer to the weekend and, yes, I continue to pound the Jets on anytime touchdown scorer props. But that's because they have two studs who score, the offense is heavily condensed to some key players and Breece has been a monster this year. He should be more like -135 to me in this matchup against a Lions team that is more than willing to give up points and is heavily favored. Even in passing scripts Breece will get plenty of work and the high-value carries.
I think the Lions will "comfortably" win this game and by "comfortably" I mean "get up big early at home after a loss with a ton of rest, cook on offense for the whole first half and let Geno Smith and a surprisingly competent Jets offense storm through the back door in the second half." Frank Reich is a good coach! He had one bad year in Charlotte and he's elevating the key skill position guys. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson look like new men this year and I expect big games from both of them this week as they finagle a cover against a good Lions team that lacks any firepower on the back end of its defense.
We likely will have game flow in our favor for the Jets – the Lions at home should be able to do whatever they want on offense. And that means it's time for Geno Smith to chuck it and duck it in the second half. New York's quarterback threw for 215 and 247 yards in low-scoring, ugly games over the first two weeks. Imagine what he can do in a shootout. Detroit’s defense isn't great, primarily the secondary. The Lions are allowing the eighth-highest passing success rate and the 11th-most EPA per dropback. This might be a ladder play for me as I project 55 total points in the game. Could 300+ yards be in play for Geno on Sunday?
Detroit has scored 31 points in both of its games so far. The defense hasn’t been very good, but Geno Smith’s Jets are averaging 20 ppg against two struggling defenses (Titans, Packers). New York’s defense has allowed the NFL’s fewest yards, but again, vs. two offenses that are having issues. The Lions’ defense has secondary holes, but Smith is good for a big mistake on the road.
The Lions are dealing with several absences in the secondary, and I expect the Jets passing game to have a great day as a result. Smith nearly got over this total in Week 1 in a game the Jets controlled from the start, leading to just 24 pass attempts. I'd be shocked if he doesn't have to throw at least 30 times in this game, and he should have success downfield with the Lions' issues. I was expecting a line closer to the 247 yards Smith put up last week, so I'm happy to go over anything up to 229.5.
The Lions defense suffered another setback with Avonte Maddox's injury, and they might be resigned to giving up 30+ points to competent offenses until reinforcements arrive. The Jets have the talent up front to slow down Detroit's pass rush and exploit the issues on the back end with Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell and the rest of the passing game. If you can't get the Jets at +7, I like taking their team total Over even if you have to play the 20.5.
Coaching malpractice and mismanagement prevented the Jets from starting 2-0. But this is a much-improved roster from last season. New York is allowing 4.0 yards per play, third-lowest. The Lions just lost safety Avonte Maddox to a season-ending foot injury, and safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph aren't ready to return yet. This is a great matchup for Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson. Detroit should bounce back from its performance in Buffalo with a win, but this is too many points.
The Jets came close to starting the season 2-0, but poor coaching helped snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on Sunday. The defense still held the Packers to just 199 yards, and while they probably aren't going to suppress the Lions offense in this matchup, they look at least decent enough where the Lions could score 30 instead of 40. The key here is a decimated Lions defense that can't stop passing attacks on the back end, and a Jets offensive line capable of holding their own against Detroit's defensive front. Until the Lions get healthy, they'll be a good team to attack when laying big numbers, hoping we can at least get backdoor covers.
