I’ll take a rare anytime touchdown with Oronde Gadsden of the Chargers. He had only three touchdowns on the season, but did catch one in Justin Herbert’s last start against the Houston Texans. He also had a recent key catch inside the five yard line against the Kansas City Chiefs. Look for Herbert to connect for one touchdown to Gadsden.

The Patriots deserve every ounce of credit they have been given for an incredible season beyond a breakout quarterback and overlooked coach. The Chargers are also coming off consecutive losses, and they have put up some poor performances this season, especially without Joe Alt. However, Los Angeles is rested, and its defense might be the toughest test Drake Maye has faced this season. Jim Harbaugh always has his teams ready and hungry. Justin Herbert, for any criticisms he’s received, is the more experienced passer who should get plenty of opportunities to move the ball. Will sprinkle the Chargers straight up, but the hook makes the spread worthwhile.

DraftKings. Demario Douglas was under this line in 10/17 regular season games. Running 82% of his routes out of the slot, he’ll have a tough matchup against the Chargers who are a top 8 team in terms of slot receiving yards per game and slot yards per route run. Plus, the Chargers zone-heavy scheme is a knock on Douglas, who sees his target rate and yards per route run plummet against the coverage. Plus, he’s hardly on the field, having lost snaps to both Efton Chism and Kyle Williams over the last few weeks.

Last 46 on our board so I'll grab it. Weather shouldn't be a huge factor but it's still a warm-weather, indoor club playing outside in January. And Jim Harbaugh no doubt will want to run, run, run and win with ball control and defense. Keep Drake Maye off the field. Maye could have some butterflies in his first postseason start as well. The Chargers haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 11.

Patriots run defense was outstanding to start the season; it wasn't great as the year progressed. I won't sugar coat the angle here that has as much to do with Omarion Hampton being limited as it does Vidal's upside. This price is short for a guy who could emerge in the game as RB1 so we'll get ahead of it

Since Justin Herbert broke his left hand, he has soldiered through four games. The total points scored in three were 38 (in regulation), 39 and 36. The Dallas game produced 51 with a team ranked on No. 2 offense and No. 30 on defense. The Chargers have leaned on their D with Herbert restricted. It yielded just five yards per pass this season, third lowest in the league. Overall, L.A.'s defense is fifth best, with New England's three slots behind. For points permitted, the Patriots are fourth stingiest, the Chargers ninth. While the Pats can conoct big gains with QB Derek Maye's arm, this has all the indredients of a low-to-moderate score.

DraftKings. I’m buying low on Chargers tight-end Orande Gadsden, who cleared this line in eight of 14 games with Justin Herbert, but stumbled a bit down the stretch. Gadsden’s snap share remains strong - he was on the field for 75% of pass snaps over the last five weeks. And the matchup is sound for the rookie tight-end, as the Patriots allowed the eleventh most receiving yards to the position, despite an easy schedule. New England’s run defense should be strong with Milton Williams back in the fold, and Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis will make life difficult on the perimeter. I’d bet this up to over 33.5 receiving yards.

Read little into Jim Harbaugh resting Justin Herbert and other starters last week at Denver other than getting healthy for the postseason as the objective. Herbert, in particular, is another week beyond his left hand surgery and should be closer to 100%, while the various bumps and bruises for other starters have had an extra week to recuperate. The Chargers' punishing defense also looks a good match for Drake Maye, who, through no fault of his own, was able to skate thru this potential MVP season with as little resistance as possible. That refers to the New England schedule, which broke incredibly well as the season-closing 13-1 run was achieved almost completely vs. also-rans, with a split against the Bills the most-challenging assignments. Play Chargers

FanDuel. Since Rhamondre Stevenson came back from his multi-week injury, his role has flipped with rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson, who is more trusted in pass protection, has emerged as the receiving back, playing in 138 pass snaps over the last five games, compared to Henderson’s 58. Stevenson has amassed at least 22 receiving yards in each game over that span. The Chargers are tough on running backs through the air, but also on the ground. I’m expecting the Patriots to rely on Drake Maye’s arm in this one, and Stevenson (17% catch share over the last five games), should carve out three catches from the hyper-efficient Maye. I’d bet this up to over 15.5 yards.

We think of TreVeyon Henderson as a dual-threat Patriots' running back. But in the last five games, it's been Rhamondre Stevenson who has gotten more of the targets and receiving work. That has given us an edge, in my opinion, as Stevenson's receiving line is set at a low 13.5. He's gone over this number and over 20 receiving yards in the last five games. I'm likely going to alt his line up to 20+ receiving yards.

Give me the Chargers + the points here as I think they win this game outright. Los Angeles has been plagued all season long by an offensive line that looks more like a turnstile than anything else but fortunately for them the Patriots don't offer a Texans or Seahawks style pass rush. New England for me is an average coverage unit past Christian Gonzalez meaning Herbert should have opportunities to spread it around the yard. Defensively Jesse Minter needs to limit the explosives from the Pats attack and I think he can do that against a playoff debutante in Drake Maye. LA has been synonymous with playoff failures in the past; that all changes on SNF.

The 14-win Patriots deserve all the credit for what they accomplished this season... but I'll attempt to take some away. Some are calling their strength of the schedule, "the easiest in 25 years." New England played just one team with a winning record (Bills). They've faced bad teams and backup QBs- Tyler Huntley, Spencer Rattler, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Quinn Ewers, and Brady Cook to name a few. Drake Maye will now face a Chargers defense that ranks 2nd in EPA per play since Week 10. DC Jesse Minter is dialed in, and runs a scheme that takes away explosive plays (what the Pats do best). I can't justify laying 3 and the hook for a 2nd year QB making his playoff debut. Bolt up.

The Chargers have to head to the East Coast here, but they're 13-5 straight up in the Eastern time zone since 2021 so I don't think it's an issue. The main area of concern as usual is their offensive line, but Jamaree Salyer practiced in full on Thursday, and he's done a passable job at left tackle, with the Chargers winning three straight games as underdogs prior to his Week 16 injury. The Patriots' edge rush is average at best, so I expect a rested Justin Herbert to have success in the passing game. The main reason I like the Chargers is how well their defense has played, with nine of their last 10 opponents scoring 20 or less. This feels like a FG game.

With all of the moving and shaking due to injuries along the offensive line, the Chargers may be at a slight disadvantage here vs New England. The Patriots are a well coached, disciplined team that's healthy. With a potential MVP at QB and a defense that's lights out, look for this to be a long flight back to Los Angeles for the Chargers.

Chargers left tackle Jamaree Salyer practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, putting him on track to start Sunday at New England. That's huge for LA's beleaguered offensive line. I'm expecting a tight, lower-scoring game with the Chargers' elite defense (second in EPA over the last 10 weeks) containing Drake Maye. LA rested key players in the regular-season finale, which should help the Chargers now. Look for a 23-20 type of game and grab the points.

This is going to be one of the Patriots' toughest defensive matchups all year, as the Chargers are the first team they've faced that ranks in the top 10 of points allowed. They've also been much better in the second half of the season, giving up more than 20 points just once in their final 10 games. The Patriots have allowed more than 23 just three times, but another reason to like the Under is that Mike Vrabel's identity come playoff time is to get into low-scoring slugfests, with four of his five playoff games not topping 40 points.

It's an open question whether the Chargers' offensive line will be the team's fatal flaw, but considering the Patriots don't have the greatest pass rush, I do think if Herbert feels pressure he'll be able to tuck and run consistently. New England hasn't faced much rushing volume this year, but mobile QBs have been able to pick up yards against them, including Josh Allen getting to 101 yards on 20 carries in those two games. Herbert has reached 31 yards nine times and should be fresh after a week of rest, so I expect one of his better rushing games here.

Hunter Henry has had a very strong season while serving as one of the Drake Mayes most reliable targets this season. Henry had arguably his best season this year, however this is a big number for the 11 year veteran, in addition to a difficult matchup. The Chargers have surrendered the 4th fewest yards to opposing Tight Ends this season as well as ranking 5th in EPA per dropback since Week 10. It’s also worth noting that the bulk of Henry’s production and almost all of his spike weeks have come versus inferior opponents and bad pass defenses.

This is a tough matchup for TreVeyon Henderson. The Chargers have allowed 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games. For the season they rank fourth in rush efficiency defense. And Rhamondre Stevenson has looked resurgent down the stretch, which could limit Henderson's attempts. Sure, Henderson is liable to break a long one, but I bet against that happening given the matchup.

I think if the Chargers didn't lose both starting offensive tackles they would be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. I do believe those injuries will catch up to them at some point if they advance. However, one area where the Patriots aren't strong is rushing the passer. The Chargers got the best possible first round matchup and that's probably why Jim Harbaugh didn't play anyone in the season finale. I don't think the Pats are a fluke but 3.5 feels high in a matchup I view even on paper. I'll back Justin Herbert and the Chargers' offense to do enough to keep this game within a field goal.

Patriots' schedule has been a sore spot for their supporters all season but there is no denying, they played hardly any good teams. They were 2-2 vs playoff teams, splitting with the Bills and also splitting with the Panthers and Steelers, the two worst teams in the tournament. Chargers were 3-2 vs playoff teams (not counting Week 18) and had to face Denver, Philly, Steelers, Jaguars, and Texans. LAC also has the better point differential vs common opponents. They have an excellent formula for playoff football: a rushing attack, a pass rush, and an excellent defense. When I crunch my numbers, I come up with LAC as a 1-point favorite. I'll gladly take anything greater than a field goal and they just might win outright.

New England benefited from one of the NFL’s softest schedules and posted a 3–2 record against playoff teams. Since Week 12, the Patriots’ run defense has dropped to 30th in EPA/play. Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are masters at crafting a productive run game, even with injuries up front. Meanwhile, the Chargers lead the league in opponent passer rating; New England sits at 21st. Since 2002, first-time playoff QBs (Maye) are just 25-40 ATS (35.4% outright wins), a notable system for this spot. Justin Herbert’s postseason experience and elite processing give the Chargers a clear advantage. The Ravens recently played the Patriots—look for Jim Harbaugh to pick up valuable tips from his brother. Fade the Drake and grab the crucial hook at a discount.