The Bills' defense is depleted and will have trouble matching up against a Chiefs' offense that's loaded with speed. K.C. has won three straight by double digits, allowing 24 total points in that span. The Bills had dropped two straight until they got fortunate and got to face Andy Dalton. This is another challenge entirely.

DraftKings. Chamarri Conner has been a force for the Chiefs stout defense this season. With 63 combined tackles, he actually leads the team, and has cleared this line in 5/8 games. The games he’s missed this line have largely been against stagnant offenses, which won’t be the case against the Bills today. Despite being listed as a safety, he’s situated as the slot cornerback 44% of the time, and in the box/on the line 37% of the time. Conner should be largely involved both against the run (second on the team in run tackles) and the pass game, specifically against slot receiver Khalil Shakir and tight-end Dalton Kincaid.

The Bills blowout of the Panthers last week should not be overlooked; that was quite a performance against a capable defense, even if Bryce Young was not on the field. Still, it’s not enough to suddenly trust an up-and-down Buffalo team over a Kansas City side that is absolutely rolling now that Patrick Mahomes has his full complement of playmakers in tow. Even more impressive is the Chiefs defense, which has allowed just 8 points per game over the last three. I don’t buy into the regular season vs. postseason narrative around this matchup, especially this early in the season without snowfall. The KC defense wins this.

The price tag for Over 4.5 carries is north of -200 on other books. Mahomes has rushed the ball 5+ times in 5/8 games this season, and had 4 in the three that he went under. He has been Kansas City’s best rusher this season, and now the Chiefs will be without RB1 Isaiah Pacheco. In big games like this, Mahomes always finds a way to extend plays and beat the defense with his legs. As always, we get the benefit of QB sneaks and kneel downs for this rush attempts prop.

Isiah Pacheco is out for the Chiefs, throwing their run game into flux, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes showed last week how much the7 trust Kareem Hunt in short yardage situations, with the RB getting a 1-yard plunge to score before also catching a 2-yard TD from Mahomes. With a likely elevated snap count in this matchup and his success in short-yardage situations, Hunt should be a red-zone priority against a defense missing a lot of talent on the interior of the defensive line. I think he's worth a sprinkle to score twice again as well.

We know the Chiefs own the Bills in the playoffs in recent years...four times in the postseason since 2020. Yet last November, in a non-playoff game, Josh Allen handed the Chiefs their first loss (SU and vs spread) for 2024 in a 30-21 success at Orchard Park. It was a showcase game for Allen, who outplayed Patrick Mahomes, accounting for 313 yards to 256 for Mahomes, and concluding the game with an exclamation-point 26-yard TD scramble in the 4th Q to lock up the win for the Bills. Speaking of the regular season, it might surprise that Buffalo has now beaten KC in each of the past four regular seasons...now, if the Bills can just do that in the playoffs! Play Bills

DraftKings. After a fast start to the season, Keon Coleman has cooled off. He’s under this line in 5/7 games, and after a strong week 1 (which is looking more like an anomaly now), his target share has dipped below 20%. The Chiefs are a brutal matchup for deep passes - they’ve only allowed two completions per game of at least 15 air yards (and only 11 total to receivers lined up on the outside). And with Coleman struggling to gain separation, he’s not much of a YAC threat either (2.0 YAC per catch is 67th of 71 receivers with at least 25 targets). I’d bet this down to under 18.5.

Patrick Mahames has rushed for 280 yards in eight games this season (35 yards per game average). We know if the game is on the line, Mahomes will not be afraid to use his legs and scramble. We expect this Chiefs vs. Bills game to be close, so I would also expect Mahomes to scramble when necessary. Mahomes has exceeded this rushing line in six of his eight games this season. He's exceeded this line in the last four games. The Bills also give up the 2nd most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.

While Kareem Hunt is not an exciting pick, he already has five touchdowns on the season so far. Now, with Isiah Pacheco out, he has the opportunity to get even more carries and opportunities in a huge game against the Bills on Sunday. Add in that the Bills are a great matchup to target for running backs. The Bills have given up the 2nd most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (9). Then we get a plus money price of +105. I love this price for Hunt to find the endzone.

High leverage games like this means a team will typically empty the playbook. For Buffalo that has meant Josh Allen's legs become a key component of the offense and I expect nothing different this week vs KC. Going to carries route over yards means every short yardage situation helps our cause and the potential for knees late in the game. There's a good chance Allen's legs get a full 4th quarter workout against this KC D on Sunday

The Bills always win the regular season version and the Chiefs always win in the postseason. Not sure much will change here. I like how Buffalo had a bye two weeks ago however, as I imagine they put some work in on this game specifically during that time. Run defense is the weakness for Buffalo but they limited Dowdle and Hubbard to just a combined total of 88 yards last week - and this week Pacheco is OUT for Kansas City. At home with extra prep, I believe Buffalo wins this game outright.

I often talk about getting cheap pieces in potential shootouts and this Xavier Worthy receiving line is a tremendous example of that. Worthy has been a disappointment this season but he saw 88% route participation last week and this week were working with a 53 point total with numerous impact defenders missing. This is precisely the potential game environment that lends itself to possible ceiling/spike performances. Considering Worthy is likely going to run routes on most of Patrick Mahomes drop backs and operating downfield versus a leaky Bills secondary in a game that is very likely to see increased passing volume AKA a shootout, this is the approximate recipe we want.

More accurate portion of Fletch's famous quote: "It's so simple." And essentially when Josh Allen is catching points at home, I am taking those points. The Chiefs are white hot and could easily win the game, but the Bills are still the Bills and this is their earliest version of the Super Bowl. Beating the Chiefs matters a lot to them and we should get a superhuman effort from Allen in this one. Let's just hope he's holding the ball last.

In 5 games against the Chiefs, Allen averages 10.6 carries per game. He cleared this total in 3/5 of those games, and rushed for a TD in 3 of them as well. Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo forces opposing QB’s to scramble with his blitz-heavy attack. This is the game of the week; Allen versus his nemesis Mahomes at home in Buffalo. I expect him to play aggressively and clear this rushing yards total.

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, so it’s no surprised that they are favored against reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills, the pre-season Super Bowl favorites who have had an uneven campaign thus far. The Bills looked much improved coming off their bye week, even if it was against dreadful backup QB Andy Dalton and the middling Carolina Panthers. Although we’re all aware of Mahomes’ hold over Allen in the postseason, the Bills are 4-1 behind Allen in regular-season matchups against the Chiefs. We’ll take the points, which could come into play here, and of course would find greater value if a full +3 becomes available.

This is my last pick on the site. Thank you to all who have followed for the last three years...it's been a thrill to post a bunch of picks during football season and beyond. In the regular season, Buffalo has won the last four matchups between these two squads. But in the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 against Josh Allen. Last I checked, this is a regular season game and inexplicably, Buffalo is getting points at home? Allen continues his regular season dominance of KC with a sizzling performance in front of a fired up crowd. Bills 30, Chiefs 24.

Josh Allen averages 44.0 rushing yards per game against the Kansas City Chiefs in regular-season matchups. Last week, he only recorded seven rushing yards against Carolina. Historically, Allen performs well on this prop after a subpar rushing game. I project him to have 40.1 rushing yards, which leaves a good amount of flexibility from this line.