Maybe I'm evolving as a bettor. Or maybe it's because I haven't had solid food in about two weeks. I'm gonna bypass my usual moneyline play and be fine with a push -- tad concerned about the two Packers OL starters out. Obviously I root against Green Bay always, but I also believe it is clearly the better team here. Matt LaFleur clubs have been among the best in the NFL in primetime games this century: 21-11-1 ATS. The Pack are also 6-0 ATS in their past six Week 2 games. That's a sign of great adjustments after the opener.

McLaurin didn't have a huge role in Washington's Week 1 win (2 catches, 27 yards on 4 targets), but I expect that to change this week. The 29-year-old is one of the most complete wide receivers in the game today, and I fully expect him to have a productive night on TNF.

Short weeks are hard on everyone -- handicappers included. I was hesitant here due to the injuries for Green Bay on the offensive side of the ball, but in the end I believe this Packers defense will be the difference. Micah Parsons is expected to have an expanded role, which could be an issue for a Washington offensive line that struggled against the Giants in Week 1.

Green Bay is beat up on offense -- Reed included. The third-year pro no longer holds an injury designation, though, and I believe he is in line for a heavy dose of targets on TNF. Look for Reed to be one of the most productive players in Green Bay's offense.

Jacory Croskey Merritt (aka Bill) was one of the rapid risers in fantasy circles this offseason. He didn't disappoint in his debut carrying 10x for 82 yards finishing 2nd in the league in rushing yards over expectation. However he only received 33% of the snapshare in a game the Commanders led box to wire. We're not sure if Chris Rodriguez will be inactive again this week but last Sunday the Commanders carried an extra TE and WR given some injury concerns. Bill isn't going to stop being a thing but after a hot debut we're selling stock at the top of the market

With 49s now on the board, I’ll take a stab at the Under in the first short week of the season. The Packers will hobble into Week 2 with a ton of injuries, and may be without multiple starting offensive linemen. WRs Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks are both playing hurt, and Christian Watson is still unavailable. The Commanders will travel to Lambeau Field and face a stout Green Bay defense, with star LB Micah Parsons expected to play. Packers DC Jeff Hafley uses a zone-heavy scheme, which should help limit Washington’s explosive plays. I expect the Packers to lean on their run game and defense at home, which should keep this game under the total.

Croskey-Merritt showed great potential in Week 1, rushing for 82 yards on 10 carries against a talented Giants defensive line. Croskey-Merritt looks to be the best downfield runner on the Commanders RB depth chart. Last week, Washington’s “RB1” Austin Ekeler was on the field for 32 snaps to Croskey-Merrit’s 19, yet Ekeler had just 6 carries for 26 yards. Expect JCR’s snap count and usage to rise. Green Bay is tough against the run, but this number still feels too low for a guy who broke off a 42-yard run in his NFL debut.

The Packers still have ‘Questionable’ tags on LG Aaron Banks and RT Zach Tom. Neither practiced this week, making it likely that Green Bay will be shorthanded at offensive line, in the first short week of the season. Tom is quietly one of the best Tackles in the NFL, and if Green Bay are without him they’ll need to draw up some quick-release action for Jordan Love. Jacobs went over this receiving yards line in 11/18 games last year, and had 20+ rec yards in 9 games. The risk here is that Jacobs also had 8 games with 1 or 0 targets, proving to be “boom-or-bust” in this department. Considering the O-line uncertainty, I’ll take the chance on a couple check downs/short passes to Jacobs.

Lot of momentum behind the Packers after they decimated the Lions. Was that more Green Bay or Detroit? Will that carry over against Washington? Much tough turnaround for the Commanders after both teams opened at home. The Packers may be down a couple players, but their defense should be the difference. Green Bay does have injury issues, but Jordan Love finally being healthy has this offense running in a way it had not since 2023, and Washington’s secondary may not be able to stop him frequently enough. Definitely need this without the hook. (Conversely, if on the Commanders, you need the hook.) Washington is on an 0-3 ATS streak in road games, whereas Green Bay is running 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.

This is a potential playoff preview with expectations sky high for both teams, but the takeaway from last week was how impressive each defense was. The Packers could potentially be down multiple offensive lineman and have two receivers dealing with injury. Washington's offense struggled to have consistency against the Giants with just 14 points until midway through the fourth quarter. I believe this total should be a few points lower, but you may be able to get 49.5 before kickoff as well.

Washington may utilize the short passing game on Thursday, and if it does, Deebo Samuel will be a key factor. The former 49ers standout showed up big in his first game with the Commanders, hauling in seven catches for 77 yards and a score on 10 targets. Terry McLaurin would ordinarily be a squeaky-wheel candidate but he just got paid, so won't complain with the Commies showing off their other "new" weapon. I think he could get some carries as well, but it's possible those come as underneath "passes" which count for receptions. This price on FanDuel is a solid 25 cents better than the rest of the market too.

Washington had an easy week one victory over the Giants and Green Bay looked dominant against the Lions. Green Bay bolstered their already elite defense with Micah Parsons and added even more weapons for Jordan Love. The Commanders offensive line did have their own issues with slowing down New York’s pass rush at times and should have an even bigger test against this Packers defense.

Tonight we get a fantastic Thursday night football matchup between the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers. In the first TNF matchup of two teams off a Sunday game, I expect the offenses to struggle to a degree. Green Bay’s group of wide receivers are talented but there is a lack of a clear number one wideout. With Jordan Love his passing yards have been down where he is averaging just 187 passing yards over his last eight regular season games. Take the under on Dobbs tonight.

The Packers laid down their law in Week 1 by beating the best offense in the league, and Detroit didn't score a touchdown until there were 55 seconds left in the game. Green Bay had set their plan perfectly for Detroit, which only allowed them to score 13 points, allowing them everything underneath but nothing over the top. They were 31 of 39 passing, but for only 200 yards, and also had one interception. Now they get Washington to make a further statement. They're setting the tone early in the year, and it looks like they've made the moves to become the best in the NFC. This is another statement game for the Packers. Green Bay to cover.

Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt has hit the ground running in the Commandes backfield, even making Brian Robinson Jr expendable. All of the offseason, preseason and practice reports have been glowing regarding Bill and we saw that carry over into Week 1 where JCM had a trio of 10+ yard explosive runs. Considering the offense he’s playing in, minimal RB depth, and what we’ve seen from Bill, I like his chances of getting 8-12 carries and breaking off another big run or two tonight.

Struggles by opposing sides last weekend for the Commanders and Packers might have had something to do with their respective reduced scorelines. Especially for Washington, as the Giants proved remarkably inefficient in the red zone and moved the ball well enough to score more than 6 points, the latest knock on Russell Wilson's ability (inability?) to ignite an NFL offense at this stage of his career. Green Bay could probably have scored more vs. the Lions if needed last week, too, but Jared Goff was a sitting duck in the pocket for an improved Pack pass rush led by just-added Micah Parsons, and the Pack was fine at 27 points. Jayden Daniels is likely to prove a different--and more difficult--challenge. Play Commanders-Pack Over.

Jayden Daniels will likely be in a neutral or trailing game script on TNF, but what's so interesting about this number is that he got all the way up to 19 completions last week in a very positive game script against the Giants. Packers play a lot of zone and can create pressure and that's why you'll see JD5 get the ball out fast and pick apart spots of the zone to his reliable pass catchers. I lean to his yardage over as well (225) as I think he's good for a schemed shot or two down the field, but it's the short area where he will live on Thursday night. Find this number at BetMGM, but I'm also ok with this at 21.5.

Austin Ekeler caught all three of his targets in Week 1, and I bet him to make at least three grabs Thursday in Green Bay. The Packers have such a good pass rush, Jared Goff in Week 1 targeted his running backs 14 times. Ekeler owns the pass-catching role in the Commanders' backfield, as the only other active RBs last week were Jacory Croskey-Merritt (1 target) and Jeremy McNichols (0 targets). With Washington potentially playing from behind, I like this prop even more.

Shop around, shop around, shop around. While BetRivers has this number active, DraftKings has it at 229.5. Our AI model projects Jordan Love to throw for 259.5 and our Fantasy projections have him at about 250. Beautiful night in Cheeseland on Thursday, and the Commanders completely shut down the Giants' running game on Sunday. If Love has to throw the ball 37 times like Russell Wilson (LOL) did on Sunday, this is surely going Over -- and I don't care how banged up GB is at wideout. Love threw just 22 times on Sunday and Green Bay had 47 offensive plays. Those are crazy low numbers that are very unlikely to be repeated.

The top option from my "bet now" story on CBS, the Commanders are catching 3.5 points across the board with that number lingering probably because Jayden Daniels popped up on the injury report this week. Green Bay was awesome in Week 1, but the underlying offensive numbers suggest the Pack aren't quite as explosive as maybe the general public believes. This is a massive stage for Daniels and he loves to show up when the lights are the brightest. Washington keeps this game within a field goal and maybe wins outright.

FanDuel. Week 2 player props are all about buying or selling what we saw in Week 1. As it comes to Deebo Samuel (7 catches on 10 targets), I’m wholeheartedly buying. Samuel showed good rapport with Jayden Daniels, and it was evident getting him the ball in space was priority. Deebo lead the Commanders with a 36% first read rate (per Fantasy Points Data), and had four catches behind the line of scrimmage (including two screen passes, per PFF). The Commanders will face off against the Packers after forcing Jared Goff into short throws in Week 1 (his 4.2 average depth of target was the lowest in Week 1). I love this spot at plus money, and would bet this down to -110.

We are projecting 1.28 passing touchdowns for Jayden Daniels which is in line with his Under 1.5 (-148 avg odds). I actually like having McLaurin with value (proj 0.47 TD) despite not having value on Daniels' TD passes. I did not hit on this same bet in Week 1 but that was only because Daniels overthrew a wide open McLaurin. Deebo Samuel's impressive debut will draw way more attention from Green Bay's defense than anyone McLaurin played with last season and I think he'll find the end zone with "half" as much attention as he got last season while still scoring in 12 of 20 games (8 of last 9 games).

Jordan Love dealt with injuries and WR drops in 2024 and it resulted in just a 3-8 over stretch from 10/27/24 to their playoff loss to Philly. This line is based on his overall 2024 performance where he averaged 1.6. But I think his line should be based on how he played healthy with a normal WR drop rate and that Love is 15-1 over/under from 11/12/23 to 10/20/24. Washington's defense looked great in Week 1 but they were also facing a washed Russell Wilson. Last season Washington allowed +6.6 more on the road (27.8) than at home and they have to travel coming off a short week.

I initially liked the Packers here but look at the Monday injury report: Green Bay could be down two offensive linemen, with Zach Tom a particularly brutal absence if he can’t go or if he’s less than 100%. Matthew Golden was limited with an ankle injury, and with Jayden Reed already playing at less than full health the Packers offense figures to have a much lower floor than I initially anticipated. If Micah Parsons is ready for a bigger role, perhaps that will help negate the offensive issues, but it’s hard to see his role significantly changing on the short week. I’m going to take the Commanders here and expect that if the Packers win, it’ll be by three points.

I’m looking to fade Matthew Golden in a variety of ways heading into a quick turn around for the Packers offense. Green Bay dropped back just 22 times in Week 1’s victory over the Lions, while Matthew Golden received a 9% target share and was only on the field for less than 60% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks. I think it’s worth betting against him being a significant part of the game plan during a short week. The Packers have a plethora of capable pass catchers and Jordan Love likes to spread it around as much as any QB in the league. GB ran the ball 54% of their offensive snaps.

We’re finding out first hand why Matthew Golden was one of my favorite fades in the season long prop market as the rookie only ran routes on less than 60% of GB dropbacks, picking up 2 targets for a 9% target share. GB is a run first offense with numerous pass catchers that are simply much more polished receivers. On a short week, versus a stingy Commanders pass defense that only surrendered 126 yards to opposing WRs, it’s hard to envision Golden being a focal point of the Green Bay game plan. I’d scale down to a .25u or .5u at 2.5 receptions at plus money.