Wouldn't it be human nature for the Lions players to be looking past this game -- even in an NFC title game rematch -- toward a short week and massive Sunday night showdown against the Vikings for the North title and NFC's top seed? I sure think so. I know Dan Campbell says his team is all-in here, but one injury and maybe Campbell changes his tune and starts pulling guys because this is meaningless in the grand scheme of things for his guys. But at least we got over the key number of 4.

Might the 49ers win this game? Sure. It’s at home and they are a talented team with a good coach. There’s just not a scenario where picking against the Lions in this spot makes much sense. San Francisco is out of the playoffs, and Detroit has a No. 1 seed in its sights. Brock Purdy has thrown for less than 160 yards in three of the last five weeks (all losses), and he will now be operating behind an offensive line missing more key players. Jared Goff has thrown 17 TD to one INT over the last six weeks with Detroit's only loss coming to Buffalo. The Lions are injured defensively, but the Niners have given up 29+ points over four of five weeks.

While this number is climbing everywhere else, it’s dropping here. Great price. Great value

Jauan Jennings has been serving as the WR1 for the 49ers ever since Brandon Aiyuk landed on IR early in the season. Jennings had performed admirably however his target share has dwindled in recent weeks, culminating in just a 16% target share last week against Miami. Jennings has failed to record 10+ targets in five consecutive weeks. I would also rate this as a difficult matchup against a Lions pass defense that ranks top 10 in EPA per Dropback and Success Rate.

For scores to hit a half-hundred, both teams must contribute. Can the 49ers do their share? In five of the past six games, they have registered 17, 10, 10, 6 and 17 points. The O-line has been stripped bare, with five blockers on injured reserve and two others questionable for this game. RB Isaac Guerendo has recovered, but can he find any holes? As for Detroit, with this outcome meaningless for playoff position, coach Dan Campbell could yank some playmakers well before the final gun. Other coaches might sit them from the get-go. That is not the Campbell Way, but it makes no sense to deploy them for 60 minutes with a short week ahead.

I took the Over on Kittle’s receiving yards, and I’m also going to bet on him to find the end zone. Kittle has 8 TD’s on the year, but hasn’t scored in a month. He’s due! Anything +150 or better seems like good value in this matchup.

As this result is effectively meaningless, with a showdown for the NFC North and top seed in the NFC on deck for next Sunday vs. Minnesota regardless, the Lions could certainly be excused for, if not tapping the brakes, at least giving rest to several key performers, especially on offense which already has a few injury concerns. Will Detroit move as well if 2nd-year Hendon Hooker or just-signed Teddy Bridgewater is taking snaps instead of Jared Goff? The injury-plagued Niners have a chance to save some face tonight, but the offense has been stuck in the mud for a while now, held to 17 points or fewer in five of the past six games, with only the woeful Bears offering a respite. Play Lions-49ers Under

The lines have been a team that has started fast traditionally. And if San Francisco can’t muster much with a very banged up offensive line that will show up early. Nice price here about 20 cents lower than other books. We don’t lose a tie.

Detroit has had some strange game scripts lately. Although Gibbs had 23 carries last week in the first game without DMonty, it was a game the Lions had 30 RB rushes. I’m projecting 24….and that Gibbs will get some breathers.

The Niners are eliminated from the playoffs, but I like them to play with pride against their NFC rivals. Detroit plays one of the heaviest rates of man coverage, which should give Niners TE George Kittle some good 1-on-1 matchups. Kittle has exploded in recent weeks, going for 100+ receiving yards in 2 of his last 3 games. Kittle is also nearing the 1,000 yard mark for the season, so I like him to rack up some stats tonight. I’m gonna bet on him to score a TD as well for a .5 unit play.

San Francisco simply doesn’t run that many offensive plays, and when they fall behind in Purdy they trust. I project SF to have 21 non QB carries. Between Deebo and Taylor getting touches, I simply think this is too high.

Coach Campbell has given no indication that the Lions have any intentions to rest players or lighten workloads in their penultimate game of the regular season. However this is a Lions backfield that was a two headed monster most of the season that's lost one of it's key cogs in recent weeks. I fully expect Jahmyr Gibbs to get his touches but they could come as a receiver rather than a battering ram back. We've seen his rushing tally bet down 10 yards from open but only modest movement on carries. I'll reverse engineer the market and expect a backfield by committee approach tonight with the Vikings showdown looming.

Isaac Guerendo is a full go for this game, and he's had success often this year when given the opportunity. But the O-line is in a much worse state right now with players being signed off practice squads around the league just to field a starting unit. The Lions have allowed 100 yards rushing just once in their last seven games and have seen the fewest rush attempts in the league as teams often fall behind quickly. I think that happens here and Guerendo doesn't see the volume to reach this number, but he may not get there with 20 carries behind this O-line.

I don't know exactly what to make of Dan Campbell's intent tonight with not much really at stake here. But I expect him to light a fire under the Lions to start either way and play his guys for a half or so, so I'm going to shorten the game vs a lesser opponent and just wager on a guy 23-10 ATS on the road in his career to win the first 30 minutes vs a guy who is waving the white flag and counting the days til the draft.

Isaac Guerendo is good to go as the 49ers' starting running back on Monday Night Football, but I still think he'll fall Under this workload. He was on the injury report with foot and hamstring issues, and he's facing the Lions' pass-funnel defense. Opponents run the ball on Detroit 37.1 percent of the time (fourth-lowest rate). Deebo Samuel will get a few carries, and so could Patrick Taylor.

This is a usage play. When Isaac Guerendo is the primary back, he has 18, 50 and 17 receiving yards with 9 receptions. While his yards per reception are just shy of 8, he has the explosive upside to hit this over with one catch. But two should definitely get us there. And as far as his health, all his props across books indicate that he will be good to go as RB1.

49ers rookie Ricky Pearsall has been targeted four times each of the past two weeks. His target share rises to a very respectable 20 percent against man coverage, and no team plays more man coverage (42 percent) than the Lions. "I know that he’s explosive and he does a good job creating separation in man coverage," Brock Purdy told reporters. Pearsall got chewed out by wide receivers coach Leonard Hankerson during last week's loss at Miami, after the rookie was involved in two illegal formation penalties. I like Pearsall to bounce back with a focused effort Monday, and for the 49ers to keep giving their first-round pick ample opportunities.

San Francisco is in unfamiliar territory with the final two games of their season rendered meaningless. They'll certainly roll out most of their starters and play to win, but I also think they'll give their young talent some extra looks. Said young talent includes rookie Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall had an ugly sequence last week with two illegal formation penalties, but he's also had 4 targets in each of his last two games (for 16 and 37 yards). I expect at least 4 targets in a likely trailing game script and against a very banged up Lions defense. A ladder is in play for the 1st Round pick with 4.41 speed.

The last five QBs to face the Lions -- Anthony Richardson (61), Caleb Williams (39), Jordan Love (23), Josh Allen (68), and Williams again (34) -- all gained significant yardage on the ground. It's been a trend ever since Aaron Glenn became Detroit's defensive coordinator. Glenn plays so much man coverage (NFL-high 42 percent) that it enables QB scrambles. This works well with Brock Purdy, who has been scrambling more this season when he gets outside the pocket. The left side of the 49ers' offensive line is decimated; that could lead to some quick pressure, prompting Purdy to take off.

Brock Purdy is feeling it some having a letdown season in his get-paid season in what's a lost season for SF. He's been really bad at home (81.1 rating) ... But when he throws to his TE at home he has a 120.6 rating. Far and away best on the team. If I know it, he knows is. With so many injuries and suspect OL, he will lean on Kittle to move chains with high percentage throws. Kittle is over this in 4 of the last 5 home games. Of course I would prefer 5, but he is over this in 6 of last 10 games overall and is one of the few sure things the young QB still has to lean on.

He gets a lot of looks in critical spots, especially on the road. He has a TD catch in 6 of 7 road games this season and I expect the Lions to be in the redzone quite a bit against this faltering 49ers D. Saw 11 targets in playoff game at SF last year. Has a TD catch in 13 of his last 16 regular season road games going back to last season.

The 49ers have been eliminated from postseason contention, while the Lions are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers are banged up and haven't been playing good football of late. Motivation will be high for Detroit and I expect the Lions to win by 7+.

Last season the Lions had the 49ers right where they wanted them with a 24-7 halftime lead and were writing their ticket to the Super Bowl. But the ball bounced the 49ers way in the second half and ended up winning 34-31. Things are slightly different this year as the Lions are 13-2 and the 49ers are 6-9. The 49ers have had many problems this year in the health department with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams missing. The 49ers have lost five of their last six games and their rating remains relatively high for some reason which means they haven't covered six of the last seven. The Lions are 7-0 on the road. Lions to cover.

Grabbing this while it's still out there. The 49ers have closed up shop, Brock Purdy is playing scared and he's been terrible at home all season. Lions pushing for 1 seed and Dan Campbell will be out to run it up on Kyle Shanahan after blowing the playoff game there last year. Lions have won all 3 games vs the NFC West by at least 6 points. Lions 7-3 ATS outside NFCN covering by 9.6 PPG. SF is 1-8 ATS vs winning teams, failing to cover by 9.4 PPG. Dan Campbell 23-10 ATS on road, tied for best in NFL since 2021.

Regardless of scenarios for the NFC North and the No. 1 seed, the Lions will bring an all-out effort in the place where their Super Bowl dreams died last season. They're getting some reinforcements back, including Graham Glasgow and Jalen Reeves-Maybin, and will be facing a depleted 49ers team that's scored 17 or fewer points in five of the past six games. Detroit averages an NFL-high 32.9 points and the 49ers won't be able to keep pace.

Dan Campbell has indicated the Lions won't rest players in advance of the Week 18 matchup with the Vikings, and as a result this line is a few points too short. The 49ers are eliminated and now shutting down players, with three offensive lineman (including Trent Williams) done for the year and Dre Greenlaw potentially joining them. The Lions' decimated defensive line shouldn't be overwhelmed in the trenches as a result, and the 49ers will likely fail to top 17 points for the sixth time in seven weeks. The Lions offense hasn't scored less than 23 since Week 3, and it's looking for revenge from the NFC Championship loss last year. This one could get ugly and I expect the spread to rise.