Who will win this epic Final Four matchup among two elite teams?

I think the wrong team is favored here. UConn already won this matchup by 13 in November and enters off one of the most stunning victories any of us have ever seen. Tarris Reed Jr. has been an absolute beast down low and picking against Dan Hurley in the Tournament is always a losing idea. He's now 14-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, which is truly incredible. With that said, the Huskies have encountered a much more difficult path than the Fighting Illini and I also believe they're the better team top to bottom. Like the last matchup, I'm not sure this game will be all that close. UConn 74, Illinois 65.

Maybe it's a mistake to keep fading Duke but I plan on doing so. Though they rallied late against St. John's, the Red Storm registered a fairly easy cover (+6.5). Now Duke faces the best tournament coach in recent memory, Dan Hurley, who is 13-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward. I see this as a one possession game either way so I believe there's value in taking the points here. UConn is veteran-laden and has the size to match up with Duke inside. I'll also be sprinkling the Huskies on the money line.

As SportsLine's resident Arizona alum and diehard, I have to make a pick on this Elite Eight matchup, don't I? Purdue is really good - they're efficient on offense and can stifle teams defensively. But my Wildcats are on a mission to make the Final Four (and beyond) for the first time since 2001. I expect both teams to slow their offenses down a bit from what we saw in the last round and the only reason I think this total gets close-ish to the number is because of free throws at the end. Not playing this for a full unit just in case and if you can buy the number up a few points, don't hesitate. Arizona 77, Purdue 71.

Illinois' offense is potent, averaging more than 84 points per game this season. Brad Underwood's team also scored at least 70 points in 24 straight games before the offensive slugfest against an elite Houston defense in the Sweet Sixteen. In the meantime, 8 of the last 10 Iowa games have gone over this total. These two teams combined for 144 in January's road victory by the Fighting Illini. My prediction isn't far off from that contest: Illinois 77, Iowa 68 with the over hitting fairly comfortably.

Early in the season, betting Michigan State unders was a profitable activity. Since then, 17 of the last 19 Spartans games have reached 139 total points or higher. Both teams average between 77 and 80 points per game and while parts of this contest may be a slugfest, I could see a barrage of late free throws pushing this into the 140s. Give me UConn to win, 73-68.

Both of these teams have only lost one game to date in 2026. St. John's relies on a stout defense, holding five of its last seven opponents to 65 points or less. Duke has shown vulnerability in this tournament, with 16 seed Siena pushing them to the max in Round 1. The Red Storm have one of the greatest college basketball coaches of all-time in Rick Pitino and I suspect he will outsmart Jon Scheyer in this one. Not only do I think St. John's covers the 6.5 points, I think it wins outright. I also lean towards the Under. St. John's 68, Duke 65.

I may be strongly biased with this pick but Arkansas isn't a matchup that overly concerns me for my Wildcats (Purdue might though in the Elite Eight). The Razorbacks have benefitted lately from easy matchups, with 11 of their last 12 wins against then-unranked teams. The Razorbacks struggled against High Point, a team I thought Arkansas would crush by 15+ points. While freshman star Darius Acuff Jr. may score 30, I don't think John Calipari's team will have an answer for Arizona's potent offense. With the crowd very likely being largely in favor of the Wildcats in San Jose, Arizona advances to the Elite Eight by double-digits, 89-76.

There's nothing more as an Arizona fan that I would like to see than Sean Miller vs. his former team with a spot at the Final Four on the line. But it's not gonna happen. I think Purdue rolls on Thursday behind an efficient offense and the fact that Texas' three wins in this tournament were against teams that had been declining in recent months. Texas is 2-7 when scoring less than 74 points, while Purdue hasn't given up 74 or more points in 15 of their last 21 games. I think this game is a no-contest result from the early stages - something like 81-65 Boilermakers.

This is a battle of two teams going in different directions. Oklahoma State lost 8 of its last 11 before a close win over Davidson in the first round of the NIT. Meanwhile, Wichita State has won 10 of its last 12 games heading into Sunday's second round matchup. The Shockers also went 7-4 in true road games this year, a surprising record that gives me more confidence in this matchup. Not only do I think they cover the spread, but I'll be sprinkling Wichita State outright as well.

I see this game in the 60s and 70s as compared to the 80s. Arizona surrenders 68.5 points per game, while Utah State is at 70.5 PPG allowed. With neither team being a three point shooting machine, I expect tough interior player and slower offenses than we saw from both teams on Friday. But I'm confident my Wildcats hold the line and advance to the Sweet 16. Arizona 78, Utah State 67.

This is a battle of two defensive-minded teams who surrender less than 70 points per game on average. St. John's has given up 72 or less in 11 straight games, while Kansas has held 11 of its last 18 opponents to 70 points or less. This feels like a game which will be decided by no more than two or three possessions and will slow to a crawl in the final five minutes. I like the way St. John's has played of late more so than Kansas and will pick them on Sunday afternoon, 71-67.

Who doesn't love to play Overs, especially when it comes to Wake Forest home games? If you think I'm crazy with that last part, check out this stat: 10 of the last 11 Wake home games have seen totals of 150+ points. Illinois State has only faced one other Power 4 conference team this season, USC, who scored 87 on them in November. I believe this game is played in at least the mid-to-upper 70s and ends up closer to 160 total points than 150.

I'm taking the bait. First one to 100 wins? This matchup pits Arkansas, the third highest scoring team in the country (90.1 points per game) against High Point, the fourth highest scoring team this season (89.8 PPG). The Razorbacks have scored 86+ points in 10 of their last 12 games and now face a team who is playing only their second power conference foe this year. John Calipari's team drops 100 and this one ends up closer to 190 than 160.

I want to thank Louisville for collapsing and allowing South Florida to backdoor an incredible cover on Thursday afternoon. If the Bulls shot better than 4 of 33 from three-point range, they likely would have beaten the Cardinals. Now Louisville, already without their best player, faces a Michigan State team who excels on defense and should dominate in the interior. Give me Tom Izzo's team by double-digits in this matinee on Saturday afternoon.