UConn rarely gets to suit up as an underdog, and I think the experienced Huskies will relish that role. Duke has not been as dominant as expected in the postseason. This is a quick turnaround for Caleb Foster after he returned from his foot fracture vs. St. John’s. Look for another Duke game that goes down to the wire.
The betting public is enamored with Duke, perhaps too much. The Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. At the same time, the public seemed to sour late in the season on UConn, which has covered in four of the last six. The Devils were rescued Friday by Caleb Foster, who returned almost overnight from foot surgery with a stellar game. He was back in a boot and on a scooter Saturday, and a repeat performance seems unlikely. The Huskies rank ninth for adjusted defense efficieny and have a big body in Tarris Reed Jr. to bang with Duke, the nation's second tallest team. Given that it would be no shocker if UConn wins outright, receiving this many points is welcome.
Maybe it's a mistake to keep fading Duke but I plan on doing so. Though they rallied late against St. John's, the Red Storm registered a fairly easy cover (+6.5). Now Duke faces the best tournament coach in recent memory, Dan Hurley, who is 13-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward. I see this as a one possession game either way so I believe there's value in taking the points here. UConn is veteran-laden and has the size to match up with Duke inside. I'll also be sprinkling the Huskies on the money line.
