The Razorbacks are on an incredible roll, with seven straight wins and an explosive offense led by Darius Acuff. But this is still the same defense that gave up 88 points to High Point, 111 to Florida and 117 to Alabama. Arizona is the more complete team and won't mind playing at a fast pace. Lay the points.
This is a tough matchup for Arkansas. The Hogs really struggle to defend near the basket and now have to deal with Arizona's big frontline. We know Arkansas will score. The problem will be on the other end of the court. Arkansas ranks 257 in two-point percentage defense. Meanwhile, Arizona scores 57 percent of its points from two-point range. The Wildcats will simply get too many easy baskets. Also, Arkansas has only beaten one KenPom Top 15 team since Jan. 3 (Vanderbilt twice). They have been beating up on inferior opponents. I think Arizona wins by at least eight points.
Arizona seems to be good for 90 points in this matchup, because even if Arkansas pulls off the upset it seems unlikely the Hogs are well-positioned to get a lot of stops. Teams have been scoring well into the 80s with some regularity and most of those squads do not have the offensive ceiling of Arizona, not to mention the potential mismatches the Wildcats pose with their skilled bigs on the interior. Arkansas' two-point defense has been a statistical liability in the last 10 games, but they've good enough offensively to overcome it with a 9-1 record in that stretch. That's the Darius Acuff effect, and why we're just focused on Arizona's offensive in this matchup.
I may be strongly biased with this pick but Arkansas isn't a matchup that overly concerns me for my Wildcats (Purdue might though in the Elite Eight). The Razorbacks have benefitted lately from easy matchups, with 11 of their last 12 wins against then-unranked teams. The Razorbacks struggled against High Point, a team I thought Arkansas would crush by 15+ points. While freshman star Darius Acuff Jr. may score 30, I don't think John Calipari's team will have an answer for Arizona's potent offense. With the crowd very likely being largely in favor of the Wildcats in San Jose, Arizona advances to the Elite Eight by double-digits, 89-76.
Arizona dominates inside the arc and should have an advantage on the boards; notably, the Wildcats don’t rely on three-pointers. Arkansas provides a tactical blueprint to exploit Arizona’s low-volume threes, as the Razorbacks are eighth nationally in three-point shooting (38.9%) and rank first in Turnover Percentage. I have always liked underdogs with that combo in Sweet 16 matchups. Additionally, Darius Acuff Jr. is playing at an elite level and appears set to continue his hot streak. Meanwhile, Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd has consistently struggled to push his teams beyond the Sweet 16, often falling to squads with superior guard play. As a result, grabbing over three possessions' worth of points with an elite shooting team in a high-tempo game is a mathematically pristine position.
