Illinois' defense has been stifling, with its last two opponents topping out at 55 points. Iowa's offense has been leisurely, with its last three opponents enduring games that had the fewest possessions in their seasons. Those are the primary ingredients for an Under. Iowa sharpshooter Bennett Stirtz has been frigid in the tournament on threes, nailing just six of 28, and the Illini held him to a dozen points and 2-for-8 from afar in their regular season clash. As for Iowa, it paced the Big Ten in turnovers forced, which can limit Illini baskets.

Illinois' offense is potent, averaging more than 84 points per game this season. Brad Underwood's team also scored at least 70 points in 24 straight games before the offensive slugfest against an elite Houston defense in the Sweet Sixteen. In the meantime, 8 of the last 10 Iowa games have gone over this total. These two teams combined for 144 in January's road victory by the Fighting Illini. My prediction isn't far off from that contest: Illinois 77, Iowa 68 with the over hitting fairly comfortably.