While UConn's comeback against Duke was one for the ages, these Huskies are a cut below the versions that won two recent titles. They have been inconsistent on threes and don't get to the foul line often. As a result, UConn is 16-22 ATS, compared to 21-15 for Illinois. The Illini roll out the nation's largest team but, with likely lottery pick Keaton Wagler scoring from all over the floor, need not focus on getting the ball low to the bigs. While their tourney schedule has been relatively soft, they have beaten all challengers by double digits. In a spacious dome where depth perception can be problematic for shooters, the team with more varied scoring options benefits. That's Illinois.
I'm looking at the total in the first Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis between Illinois and Connecticut. The total shows 139.5, while I made the total 134. Illinois scores a lot of points, but they can play slow-down ball as well and have stayed under their last three, making it 22 for the season. Connecticut has stayed under in four of its last six games and 20 overall on the season. The under.
Illinois and UConn are both more than happy to play a game that’s mostly decided in the half court, and with the patience of the Huskies’ offense in particular there’s a good chance that this is a lower-possession game. The issue is that Illinois has been playing these kind of games and doing so at a high level, holding three straight opponents under 60 points and beating a pair of teams in Houston and Iowa that also play at a snail’s pace. The defensive improvement we’ve seen from Illinois should travel to Indianapolis, leading to a tough scoring night for the Huskies.
I think the wrong team is favored here. UConn already won this matchup by 13 in November and enters off one of the most stunning victories any of us have ever seen. Tarris Reed Jr. has been an absolute beast down low and picking against Dan Hurley in the Tournament is always a losing idea. He's now 14-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, which is truly incredible. With that said, the Huskies have encountered a much more difficult path than the Fighting Illini and I also believe they're the better team top to bottom. Like the last matchup, I'm not sure this game will be all that close. UConn 74, Illinois 65.
Last play of the CBB season. I think both Final Four games will be tight but like getting 2.5 with UConn here. I bet this game earlier in the season when the Huskies were slight favorites and won 74-61. Both teams are a lot different now, but I don't think this is the worst matchup for UConn and its physical style. Hopefully the officials don't have a quick whistle and let the teams play. Good luck and thanks for following this season!
