This tournament is going like I thought with the top seeds dominating. I don't see that changing much on Sunday. Arizona was my highest rated team entering the tournament, while Utah State won a bad MWC this year. The Wildcats should own the offensive boards and live at the free throw line. Arizona also has a big edge defensively in this matchup. Mountain West teams have been horrible as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, going just 16-41-3 ATS in that role since 2001. I think the Cats win a 85-68 kind of game to advance into the Sweet 16. Lay the 11.5.
Utah State executed down the stretch to beat Villanova, but this is a totally different challenge. Arizona's size will make it tough for the Aggies to do what they usually do, score in the paint. The Wildcats barely broke a sweat against LIU and will demonstrate why they're the second favorite to win it all. The only postseason game Arizona hasn't covered came in the Big 12 semis, when the Wildcats won a virtual road game 82-80 over Iowa State as 2.5-point favorites.
I see this game in the 60s and 70s as compared to the 80s. Arizona surrenders 68.5 points per game, while Utah State is at 70.5 PPG allowed. With neither team being a three point shooting machine, I expect tough interior player and slower offenses than we saw from both teams on Friday. But I'm confident my Wildcats hold the line and advance to the Sweet 16. Arizona 78, Utah State 67.
