I want to thank Louisville for collapsing and allowing South Florida to backdoor an incredible cover on Thursday afternoon. If the Bulls shot better than 4 of 33 from three-point range, they likely would have beaten the Cardinals. Now Louisville, already without their best player, faces a Michigan State team who excels on defense and should dominate in the interior. Give me Tom Izzo's team by double-digits in this matinee on Saturday afternoon.

Michigan State loves to hunt transition opportunities and with Louisville’s pace and shot volume there should be chances to get out and run. The Spartans’ defense also started to slide a little bit at the end of the regular season, contributing to a run that saw the over hit 9 times in Michigan State’s last 11 games. Louisville had a good offensive rhythm in the first round before USF began its panic pressure in the second half and forcing turnovers, but that again contributed to the Cards’ game going over the closing total of 160.5. Sparty’s average pace on the season is slower than what they’ve shown in recent weeks, providing some value on the over.