Intriguing matchup in the Frisco Bowl which favors one team...

Strong selection in this first round NCAAF Playoffs matchup...

Nebraska is 1-5 in one score games this season...

Take stability over a 4th stringer.

It just doesn't feel right to pick an over in the battle for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy this year, but these two offenses have been fun in 2024. Both are averaging more than 32 points per game, but I'm especially impressed with Army, who I've faded a few times of late though they dominated last week in the AAC Championship Game. Expect another fine performance from Jeff Monken's crew, who should be singing second (alma maters after the game - the best tradition in college football). Army 27, Navy 17.

There are normally two picks to make in the Army-Navy Game: the underdog and the under. Eight of the last 10 meetings have been decided by one score, while 17 of the last 18 have gone under. The Black Knights and Midshipmen spend all season preparing for this, and that shows on the field. But a funny thing has happened under Jeff Monken: Army has pulled away. Army is 6-2 in the last eight meetings winning three of the last six by a touchdown. And this team may be better than each that preceded it. Navy is in the midst of its best year since 2019, but it's lost to the two best teams it faced by a combined 86-14. Go Army. Beat Navy.

Where the Black Knights have an advantage over Navy is in their ability to play consistently stout defense. Army's defense is one of the best in the country and does a great job of getting off the field. On the other side of the ball, they have two of the more explosive talents in QB Bryson Daily and RB Kanye Udoh.

There are trends in college football, and there is this: The last 10 Army-Navy meetings have resulted in a points total under 40. Because of the sky-high stakes, coaches turn conservative in their play-calling, and they do not throw much to begin with. The Black Knights average fewer than eight passes per game by QBs and have advanced the fewest yards by air than any FBS member. The Midshipmen might be airing it out compared to prior iterations but still average just 14 tosses per outing by QBs and rank just three spots ahead of their rivals for passing yards. The clock simply does not stop that often, which sets up another sub-40 outcome for the total.

Army has won the last two meetings against Navy and six of the last eight. They've covered eight of their 12 games this season. The most recent comparisons showing the disparity between the armed forces this year happened in their games against Tulane. When Army faced Tulane on December 6th they won 35-14. When Navy faced Tulane on November 16th they lost 35-0. Army is led by quarterback Bryson Daily who tossed eight touchdown passes but where he does his damage is in the running game where he had a 5.6 average, 29 TDs, and 1,474 yards. Army has the No. 1 rushing team in the nation averaging 314 yards per game. Army is in another class than Navy this year. Army covers.

Despite Army's American title, we don't see much separating these two. The Mids upgraded significantly this season, too, adding Wing-T elements to the offense as imported by first-year OC Drew Cronic, who arrived from A-AA Mercer (where he was head coach). Now-healthy Navy QB Blake Horvath was posting big numbers all season and making nearly as many plays as ballyhooed West Point counterpart Bryson Daily. Navy's recent win (sans Horvath) over a hot East Carolina also impressed. Upsets have been commonplace in this rivalry throughout the decades and an expected fanatical effort from Annapolis, finally playing one of these vs. Army closer to home (in Landover at the Commanders' stadium this week) might be another plus. Play Navy (at Landover, Md)

South Carolina State is well rested, and hasn't played since Nov. 23. Jackson State played on Dec. 7 (when they won the SWAC championship), but I believe the Tigers are in a much better spot heading into this game. JSU is rolling and playing its best football of the season. Since losing to Grambling in September, the Tigers have rattled off nine straight wins with all but one coming in blowout fashion. This is a team that can light up the scoreboard, and will be playing for its first HBCU national title since the 1996 season. I like Jackson State to win big in the Celebration Bowl on Saturday.

Both of these offenses are explosive and have been lighting up the scoreboard all season. This will be the toughest defensive test both offenses have faced in months, but I still expect plenty of offensive fireworks on Saturday. I see this game total going over 60 points when it's all said and done.

MEAC Champs have a slight advantage coming into the Celebration Bowl because of the fact that they don't have to play a conference championship game. That extra week of both rest and prep for the SWAC challenger has always leaned heavily in the favor of the MEAC representative. Expect that to be the case for the very strong South Carolina State Bulldogs.

I believe Drew Allar is a season away from being a really, really good Big Ten quarterback. While he has been solid this season, the only defense he's faced that's on Oregon's level is Ohio State. Allar completed 12-of-20 passes for 146 yards and an interception, and the Nittany Lions only scored 13 points against the Buckeyes. I expect a similar type of performance on Saturday.