3 Expert Picks
Indiana's defense has allowed more than 20 points only twice all season...
Expect few points in Indiana-Miami. ...
Indiana, Miami collide in the CFP National Championship. ...
I’ve been way off in the College Football Playoff games as evidenced by me liking Texas Tech and Alabama on New Year’s Day. Both of these Big Ten teams were awesome and their defenses looked impenetrable. Indiana shockingly won in Eugene in October, 30-20, so I lean towards Oregon in the rematch. Like Miami, Indiana hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game this season, but I have to think that Ducks' OC Will Stein will make the necessary adjustments to succeed. I have continued to doubt the Hoosiers, but their offense led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is impressive. Either way, I think this one is decided by four points or less, something like 27-24 Ducks.
It’s quite tough to beat a top 10 college football team twice in one season. Remembering that Indiana beat Oregon at its own place by 10 points tells you the first result was no fluke. What’s been most impressive about the Hoosiers is how they have completely snuffed out most opponents, including holding Ohio State and Alabama to a combined 13 points. The win over the Tide was a shock to the system, but there’s no doubt that the Ducks present a far greater challenge given their playmaking talent. The Hoosiers’ size on both lines coupled with Curt Cignetti’s magic has them as the rightful favorite in the College Football Playoff. Now that the line is down to a field goal, it’s time to play.
When you look at rematch games, it always comes down to what little adjustments teams make over the previous matchup. When facing Indiana, it really is about discipline and execution, which is tough to game plan for and adjust to. The Hoosiers simply do not make mistakes and this spread is close enough to definitely reflect that notion.
Amnesia helps here. Forget that Indiana was recently the losingest program in FBS. These Hoosiers are the best team this season, and it's not debatable. They have not lost a fumble since their opener and have committed just eight turnovers. Only one team has been assessed fewer penalty yards. They lead everyone in third-down conversion success. They have dropped just a half-dozen passes. They amassed twice as many sacks as their opponents. Their TD advantage: a staggering 76-13. If such overwhelming evidence is not enough, they beat Oregon 30-20 in Eugene. Wish the hook would go away, but we are fine with laying 3.5.
Indiana has burned me quite often this year so maybe I should just pass, but it's so hard to beat a really good team twice in one season in this sport. Ask Georgia. Or Alabama (vs. Georgia in the SEC title game). In four of the five total College Football Playoff rematches, the team that lost the earlier matchup came out on top. Indiana can win by 4, though, that's fine by me.
This national semifinal game should probably be the national championship matchup. The storyline from the first meeting was that Oregon only got 81 yards on 30 rushes and was also sacked six times. Indiana took the game over in the 4th quarter, a sign of things to come from head coach Curt Cignetti, who has taken Indiana to a 25-2 record in his two seasons. Cignetti is a stone-cold winner. In this recent era of NIL signings, there is no better example of changing a program into a winner than Cignetti. The SEC had control of the college football landscape, but now the Big Ten is going for its third straight championship. I think Indiana is the team to win from the Big Ten.
I'm looking at the Peach Bowl total over 46.5, with Oregon being the key to the game getting over. My thinking is that Indiana will control the tempo, and Oregon's going to have to catch up. Oregon dominated Texas Tech 23-0 last week, but the week before, against James Madison, it was 51-34. They let the Dukes back in. Oregon went 7-7 to the over this season. Indiana went 8-6 to the over, scored 30 points at Oregon on October 11th, and scored 41.6 points a game this season, which was fifth in the nation. Over is the play.
The "revenge factor" from the regular season has been worth noting since conference championship weekend, as six times in eight, the losing team from the first meeting has won the rematch. A trend that would favor the Webfoots atoning for the 30-20 October loss at home to the Hoosiers. Worth noting how IU's bread-and-butter ground game was kept in check by Iowa, Penn State, and Oregon during the regular season, and from there is where the Hoosiers derive their KO power. The earlier clash was a split-decision in IU's favor, not a knockout, and it is highly unlikely the Hoosiers bully Oregon the way they did Alabama last week. The Ducks' manhandling of Texas Tech suggests a real chance tonight. Play Oregon (at Atlanta)
No surprise if we get a rock-fight here not too dissimilar from the Big Ten title game at Indy between the Hoosiers and Ohio State. Maybe even a bit slower-paced than the October meeting between these two at Eugene that ended in a split decision for Indiana, 30-20, two late picks off of Dante Moore finally deciding the outcome. Indiana's punishing infantry, which set up Fernando Mendoza's Heisman campaign thru the air, only gained 3 ypc at Autzen Stadium, and the Ducks just blanked a Texas Tech side that couldn't score after entering Miami scoring at nearly 44 ppg. The IU defense, however, also made going difficult for Oregon in October, and this rematch might be played in the teens. Play Oregon-Indiana Under (at Atlanta)
When these teams met in October, Oregon held the Hoosiers to their co-lowest yardage total (326) of the season, and Indiana still won by 10. That game also was in Eugene. The Hoosiers are a team that doesn't beat itself and has few, if any, weaknesses. Meanwhile running back depth could be an issue for the Ducks. Leading rusher Noah Whittington is listed as questionable, and backup Jordon Davison is out. Oregon rushed for just 81 yards in the first meeting. Now that this line has dipped to -3 from -4, I'll gladly take Indiana.
As someone with annual Fiesta Bowl tickets, I was thrilled at the possibility of an Ohio State-Georgia semifinal game on Thursday night. But Miami’s domination of the line of scrimmage against the Buckeyes and Trinidad Chambliss’ theatrics vs. the Bulldogs changed that. This game should be a barn burner regardless, but I lean towards the Hurricanes for two reasons: Their physicality against Texas A&M and Ohio State was superior, plus the continuing uncertainty around the Rebels’ coaching staff can be a distraction. Interesting streaks on the line here: Ole Miss has scored 30+ points in eight straight games, while Miami hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in regulation all season. Give me the Hurricanes, 28-21.
Initial expectation was that Ole Miss' us-against-the-world mentality would fizzle out after its first-round win. Could not have been more incorrect seeing the way it went up and down the field against Georgia. The Rebels have somehow overcome the coaching distraction with Trinidad Chambliss fully establishing himself as perhaps the most electirc player in these playoffs. Ole Miss should stand up better against Miami's defensive front than the Hurricanes' first two opponents, and it's tough to see how UM has enough firepower to match the underdogs shot-for-shot. Playing Ole Miss and the points -- with a sprinkle on an outright victory and the under (if so inclined) -- is the best move.