Ole Miss battled Georgia, with both teams exceeding 70 plays—a significant amount of time on the field for both units. The schedule did the Rebels no favors by scheduling this game for Thursday instead of Friday. Miami has advantages in point differential, third-down defense, red zone offense and defense, run defense, opponent passer rating, net yards per pass defense, and sack differential. Against fellow bowl opponents, the Hurricanes hold the edge in net yards per play, net yards per rush, net yards per pass, and net yards per point on both offense and defense. Miami controlled the line of scrimmage vs Ohio State; this is repeatable against Ole Miss. If you find -2.5 at -115 or better, consider making it a 1-unit play.

Iowa has an elite defense (15.2 ppg allowed) and is perfectly built to stifle a Vanderbilt offense missing its MVP, TE Eli Stowers, who opted out. Without Stowers, QB Diego Pavia loses his primary safety valve, forcing him into difficult 3rd-and-long situations against Iowa’s top-10 secondary. Iowa is nearly at full strength. While Vanderbilt’s path to 10 wins depended on volatile, high-risk plays, Iowa’s four defeats came by a mere 15 points combined—with no single loss exceeding 5 points—demonstrating the Hawkeyes are stronger than their 8-4 record suggests. In a low-scoring, physical game, getting 5.5 points with the better defense is simply too much value to pass up. The Hawkeyes went 7-0 ATS vs winning teams this season. More of the same.

Bowl games are often decided by who wants to be there. Houston is playing for a 10-win season in their home city (NRG Stadium is 10 mins from campus). LSU is playing with an interim coach, a backup QB, and a depleted roster. Houston QB Conner Weigman (64.6 QBR) is a legit starter and confirmed to play. LSU starting backup QB Michael Van Buren Jr. (31.9 QBR) against a complex defense is a recipe for 3-and-outs. Even if LSU moves the ball, they are ranked #108 in Red Zone scoring with their starters. McKenzie Agnello will start at Center after Demetrius Hunter left the Cougars. At New Mexico, Agnello posted a strong PFF run-blocking grade (73.8), which ranked 9th among all FBS centers that season.

New Mexico’s opponents have a .728 win percentage against fellow bowl teams. The Lobos posted a 4-2 SU record, 5-1 ATS, and finished 3-3 in the stats. Minnesota opponent's win percentage is .545. The Golden Gophers went 1-5 SU, were outgained in four of five games, and had a -141 YPGD. Minnesota went 0-5 on the road, and with the Bowl being played in Arizona, the crowd is expected to strongly favor New Mexico. Jason Eck’s remarkable turnaround at New Mexico has generated significant momentum for the program. The Lobos are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 and have won six straight games. Eager for their 10th win, the Lobos are driven to make a statement by defeating a Big Ten opponent.

Hawaii’s coaching staff is steady, while Cal’s is unsettled. Timmy Chang has turned Hawaii around, going from three wins in 2022 to 8-4 this season. Against other bowl teams, Hawaii nearly matched its opponents in yardage, while Cal struggled, being outgained by 54 yards per game. Special teams is a big advantage for Hawaii: they convert 95.6% of field goals (Cal just 73.3%) and rank 26th in punting (Cal is 125th). The Rainbow Warriors are better on both lines, rank 3rd in red-zone scoring compared to Cal’s 73rd, and the strength of schedule is closer than you might think. The home team has a +3.6 point differential, while Cal is -4.7. My model has Hawaii winning 62.1% of the time, even without WR Jackson Harris.

Jacksonville State's most glaring advantage is the combination of the nation's elite rushing attack and Troy's historically poor run defense. Cam Cook leads all of college football with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, with Jacksonville State ranking 4th nationally in rushing offense at 258.2 yards per game. The Trojans rank 112th in rushing yards allowed per game at 182.3 yards, and their rushing defense ranks 115th overall at 4.8 yards per rush allowed. The Gamecocks are better in the trenches and have three wins against quality fellow Bowl teams. Troy mostly beat up on weak Bowl teams, and they will be without starting RB Tae Meadows. Jacksonville State ranks 6th in consistency, while Troy checks in at 50th. My model has JS winning outright.

Critical injuries to leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and safety Bud Clark hamper TCU. Cincinnati enters full strength with an offense averaging a dominant 6.6 yards per play (vs. TCU’s 5.8). The biggest mismatch is the Red Zone. Cincinnati is elite at finishing drives (89% scoring rate) and forcing stops (77% allowed), while TCU ranks 115th offensively and allows points on 85% of defensive trips. The Bearcats own the better offensive and defensive lines, as Cincinnati has a +1.2 sack differential (#1 in pressure rate allowed) while TCU is at 0.0. They are on a mission to end their losing skid in this revenge game, where they outgained TCU last year. My model has the wrong team favored.

Temple has two weeks to prepare for their revenge game against Tulane, which defeated the Owls 52-6 last year. This will be Tulane's third road game in the last four weeks. Tulane lost to UTSA 48-26 on the road, its most lopsided defeat. Temple defeated UTSA as 6-point home underdogs, and the Owls are 7-3 ATS this season. They need a victory to secure a Bowl birth. While they may not win, getting 8.5 points seems like an inflated line. Tulane has multiple players listed as questionable. Running back Maurice Turner, wide receiver Garrett Mmahat, and tight end Leron Husbands are all dealing with undisclosed injuries. Twelve players from the Green Wave are currently listed as questionable. I have the game Temple +7.

Jacksonville State's running game, ranked 4th in yards per game, is designed to exploit Kennesaw State's defensive weaknesses. If the Gamecocks dominate time of possession and control the tempo, they can limit Kennesaw State's offensive opportunities. The Gamecocks have built a historical home-field advantage tradition, maintaining a .731 winning percentage all-time at AmFirst Stadium. Kennesaw State has struggled away from the friendly confines of Georgia, posting a 2-2 record. My model indicates that the wrong team is favored, and Jacksonville State should be favored by -2.3 points. Look for the home team to defeat the Owls for the third straight time and improve to 4-0 ATS as home dogs of late.

Matt Zollers is a four-star prospect ranked 72nd nationally and 8th among quarterbacks in the 2025 class. In an emergency backup role against Vanderbilt, he completed 14 of 23 passes for 138 yards and 1 touchdown against a top-10 defense. Missouri relies heavily on Ahmad Hardy's rushing attack, averaging 244.9 yards per game, with Hardy providing over 50% of their offense. Zollers should focus on 15-20 short/intermediate passes rather than 30+. The Aggies defeated Missouri 41-10 last season and should be motivated at a sold-out Faurot Field. Both teams are coming off extended rest. The bye is not ideal for undefeated teams in November as the pressure mounts. SEC home teams are 51-33 against the spread this season. I like the home team.

This line seems super inflated. Duke is in the middle of a Clemson/Virginia conference sandwich. UConn's defense allows just 32.6% third-down conversions (vs Duke's 43.1%) and only 58.8% red zone scores (vs Duke's 93.5%, ranked 125th). Duke's discipline ranks 124th in FBS, averaging 78 penalty yards per game, whereas UConn ranks 24th with an average of 40.5 yards. Despite facing a more demanding schedule (ranked 43rd compared to UConn's 135th), the Blue Devils' defensive weaknesses against stronger teams are concerning. Allowing opponents to score on 93.5% of their red zone trips is a significant issue, regardless of the competition. UConn's defensive structure, ball security, home-field advantage (14-7 ATS at home under Mora Jr.), and senior QB Joe Fagnano should keep the game close.

Buffalo holds major edges in nearly every major statistical category, particularly in the critical pass defense matchup, where Bowling Green ranks 130th nationally (8.6 YPA allowed). Bowling Green allows scores on 91.3% of red zone possessions, which is among the worst rates in college football. The Bulls score on 75% of their red zone trips, setting up a favorable scoring environment. With my computer model projecting Buffalo as a 3-point favorite and the market pricing Bowling Green as a 2.5-point favorite, there's a 5.5-point swing in Buffalo's direction. I like the road team in this spot.

Arizona State comes off an upset win over top-10 Texas Tech, where they stormed the field. This is a spot to fade teams. The Cougars have one of the Big 12's best defenses, allowing just 19.0 points per game (30th nationally). I prefer our quarterback, Conner Weigman, who has a rating of 148.7, compared to Sam Leavitt's rating of 129.8. Houston has been efficient in key moments, converting 41.5% of third downs and boasting a red zone scoring percentage of 95.4%, which ranks second in the Big 12. They score touchdowns on 57.8% of red zone trips. The Sun Devils will miss star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who is out with a hamstring injury sustained against Texas Tech. The back door is open as well.

Vandebilt has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. They have a +2.3 net yards per play while playing the 24th-hardest schedule. LSU has a +0.9 NYPP and has played the 15th-toughest schedule. Vanderbilt's offensive line has been among the SEC's best in pass protection, conceding only 0.67 sacks per game. The Tigers have struggled with points per quality drive (ranked 124th nationally), suffering from critical red zone turnovers. The Commodores have significantly improved their scoring margin, offensive efficiency, third-down performance, and defensive consistency compared to last year's squad. With an impressive 82.5 QBR (ranked 14th), Diego Pavia and company look to end their 10-game skid against LSU.

Alabama's road performance under head coach Kalen DeBoer has not been great. They are 2-5 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium since DeBoer took over, with four of those five losses coming against unranked opponents. The Tigers have won convincingly in all five games, including impressive victories over Kansas and South Carolina. Their bye week before this game and revenge from last year's shutout loss provide additional motivation. Quarterback Beau Pribula has been outstanding, completing 75.9% of his passes for 1,203 yards with nine touchdowns and just three interceptions. His mobility adds another dimension, contributing 121 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Crimson Tide is coming off two consecutive physical games. Take the points in this spot.