Critical injuries to leading rusher Kevorian Barnes and safety Bud Clark hamper TCU. Cincinnati enters full strength with an offense averaging a dominant 6.6 yards per play (vs. TCU’s 5.8). The biggest mismatch is the Red Zone. Cincinnati is elite at finishing drives (89% scoring rate) and forcing stops (77% allowed), while TCU ranks 115th offensively and allows points on 85% of defensive trips. The Bearcats own the better offensive and defensive lines, as Cincinnati has a +1.2 sack differential (#1 in pressure rate allowed) while TCU is at 0.0. They are on a mission to end their losing skid in this revenge game, where they outgained TCU last year. My model has the wrong team favored.

Temple has two weeks to prepare for their revenge game against Tulane, which defeated the Owls 52-6 last year. This will be Tulane's third road game in the last four weeks. Tulane lost to UTSA 48-26 on the road, its most lopsided defeat. Temple defeated UTSA as 6-point home underdogs, and the Owls are 7-3 ATS this season. They need a victory to secure a Bowl birth. While they may not win, getting 8.5 points seems like an inflated line. Tulane has multiple players listed as questionable. Running back Maurice Turner, wide receiver Garrett Mmahat, and tight end Leron Husbands are all dealing with undisclosed injuries. Twelve players from the Green Wave are currently listed as questionable. I have the game Temple +7.

Jacksonville State's running game, ranked 4th in yards per game, is designed to exploit Kennesaw State's defensive weaknesses. If the Gamecocks dominate time of possession and control the tempo, they can limit Kennesaw State's offensive opportunities. The Gamecocks have built a historical home-field advantage tradition, maintaining a .731 winning percentage all-time at AmFirst Stadium. Kennesaw State has struggled away from the friendly confines of Georgia, posting a 2-2 record. My model indicates that the wrong team is favored, and Jacksonville State should be favored by -2.3 points. Look for the home team to defeat the Owls for the third straight time and improve to 4-0 ATS as home dogs of late.

Matt Zollers is a four-star prospect ranked 72nd nationally and 8th among quarterbacks in the 2025 class. In an emergency backup role against Vanderbilt, he completed 14 of 23 passes for 138 yards and 1 touchdown against a top-10 defense. Missouri relies heavily on Ahmad Hardy's rushing attack, averaging 244.9 yards per game, with Hardy providing over 50% of their offense. Zollers should focus on 15-20 short/intermediate passes rather than 30+. The Aggies defeated Missouri 41-10 last season and should be motivated at a sold-out Faurot Field. Both teams are coming off extended rest. The bye is not ideal for undefeated teams in November as the pressure mounts. SEC home teams are 51-33 against the spread this season. I like the home team.

This line seems super inflated. Duke is in the middle of a Clemson/Virginia conference sandwich. UConn's defense allows just 32.6% third-down conversions (vs Duke's 43.1%) and only 58.8% red zone scores (vs Duke's 93.5%, ranked 125th). Duke's discipline ranks 124th in FBS, averaging 78 penalty yards per game, whereas UConn ranks 24th with an average of 40.5 yards. Despite facing a more demanding schedule (ranked 43rd compared to UConn's 135th), the Blue Devils' defensive weaknesses against stronger teams are concerning. Allowing opponents to score on 93.5% of their red zone trips is a significant issue, regardless of the competition. UConn's defensive structure, ball security, home-field advantage (14-7 ATS at home under Mora Jr.), and senior QB Joe Fagnano should keep the game close.

Buffalo holds major edges in nearly every major statistical category, particularly in the critical pass defense matchup, where Bowling Green ranks 130th nationally (8.6 YPA allowed). Bowling Green allows scores on 91.3% of red zone possessions, which is among the worst rates in college football. The Bulls score on 75% of their red zone trips, setting up a favorable scoring environment. With my computer model projecting Buffalo as a 3-point favorite and the market pricing Bowling Green as a 2.5-point favorite, there's a 5.5-point swing in Buffalo's direction. I like the road team in this spot.

Arizona State comes off an upset win over top-10 Texas Tech, where they stormed the field. This is a spot to fade teams. The Cougars have one of the Big 12's best defenses, allowing just 19.0 points per game (30th nationally). I prefer our quarterback, Conner Weigman, who has a rating of 148.7, compared to Sam Leavitt's rating of 129.8. Houston has been efficient in key moments, converting 41.5% of third downs and boasting a red zone scoring percentage of 95.4%, which ranks second in the Big 12. They score touchdowns on 57.8% of red zone trips. The Sun Devils will miss star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who is out with a hamstring injury sustained against Texas Tech. The back door is open as well.

Vandebilt has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. They have a +2.3 net yards per play while playing the 24th-hardest schedule. LSU has a +0.9 NYPP and has played the 15th-toughest schedule. Vanderbilt's offensive line has been among the SEC's best in pass protection, conceding only 0.67 sacks per game. The Tigers have struggled with points per quality drive (ranked 124th nationally), suffering from critical red zone turnovers. The Commodores have significantly improved their scoring margin, offensive efficiency, third-down performance, and defensive consistency compared to last year's squad. With an impressive 82.5 QBR (ranked 14th), Diego Pavia and company look to end their 10-game skid against LSU.

Alabama's road performance under head coach Kalen DeBoer has not been great. They are 2-5 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium since DeBoer took over, with four of those five losses coming against unranked opponents. The Tigers have won convincingly in all five games, including impressive victories over Kansas and South Carolina. Their bye week before this game and revenge from last year's shutout loss provide additional motivation. Quarterback Beau Pribula has been outstanding, completing 75.9% of his passes for 1,203 yards with nine touchdowns and just three interceptions. His mobility adds another dimension, contributing 121 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Crimson Tide is coming off two consecutive physical games. Take the points in this spot.

Troy's strong defensive play in this matchup is crucial for covering the spread. They allow 5.3 yards per play (56th in FBS) compared to South Alabama's 5.7 yards (77th). Troy's scoring defense gives up 24.0 points per game (55th nationally), while South Alabama surrenders 34.5 points, ranking 116th. South Alabama struggles particularly in run defense, ranking 117th by allowing 204.8 rushing yards per game. Troy's ability to apply pressure will challenge South Alabama's QB, as evidenced by 14 tackles for loss in their previous matchup. Before last year's defeat, Troy had won six consecutive meetings over South Alabama. With two weeks to prepare and a desire for revenge, I like the home team in this spot.

San Diego State shocked California as two-touchdown underdogs, winning 34-0 last week. They are traveling to a different time zone for the first time this season to face a Huskies team that has lost to both Maryland and Mississippi State, which together have an 8-0 record. San Diego State's only true road test this season was a 36–13 loss at Washington State, highlighting its vulnerability away from home. NIU has played a much tougher schedule, and I will ride with the home underdog in this spot.

Louisville holds a +1.4 net yards per play differential while facing the 71st toughest schedule. In contrast, the Panthers have a +2.0 net yards per play differential against the 83rd hardest schedule. Under Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh is 13-8 SU and 14-7 ATS following a bye week, which includes an impressive 6-1 ATS at home and 12-2 ATS against ACC foes. Louisville has a record of 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its first road game of late. In their loss against West Virginia two weeks ago, Pittsburgh committed 14 penalties for 118 yards. With extra preparation time and a desire for revenge from last year's defeat, I will gladly take the points in what should be a close game.

Indiana has yet to face a defense of Illinois' caliber. Their previous opponents have not provided the same level of pass rush pressure or secondary coverage that Illinois brings. The Hoosiers' offensive line will face its biggest season test against Illinois' front seven. Illinois possesses the defensive foundation and offensive balance to keep this game within a touchdown. The line seems a little fishy as I have the game close to the opener of -4. I have to trust my numbers and take the points for 1 unit.

Taylen Green has been exceptional through two games, posting numbers that rival the best in college football. Green has thrown for 10 touchdowns in just two games – the most by an Arkansas quarterback over a two-game span since Ryan Mallett in 2009. This improved offensive line should provide protection, and face an Ole Miss team with quarterback uncertainty and continued protection issues. Green's dual-threat ability gives Arkansas multiple ways to move the ball and keep this game close, while Ole Miss's offensive limitations could prevent them from pulling away. Last year, Arkansas suffered a brutal 63-31 beatdown at home. Sam Pittman has an impressive record of 16-5-1 against the spread in road games, and the Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Rocco Becht hasn't thrown a pick in 84 attempts, but the Cyclones' win over Kansas State was misleading, as they were outgained by 70 yards in Week 0. Iowa played conservatively in its opener against Albany, passing for just 48 yards and relying on RB Xavier Williams, who rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown. They were saving their best plays for this matchup. Quarterback Mark Gronowski brings valuable experience to Iowa, collecting 49 wins, two national titles at South Dakota State, and the ability to run for first downs. Last year, Iowa's only home loss was against ISU, despite leading by 13 points. The Cyclones converted a 54-yard FG with 6 seconds remaining. With Iowa's strong lines of scrimmage, getting 3.5 points feels right.