Early kickoff for the “Holy War”: 10:00 AM local time...

BYU heads to Orlando after a dramatic 28–24 win over Notre Dame, a victory that vaulted them to No. 2 in the AP poll. Next up: the Knights’ Homecoming game, where BYU will need to stay sharp under the warm Florida sun (low to mid 80s) without stud running back LJ Martin. UCF brings a top-15 rushing attack and could test a BYU defense that just spent over 70 snaps on the field last week. Head coach Scott Frost is known for creative rushing plays and will look to exploit any signs of fatigue. The Knights are also dangerous in the red zone, converting 21 of 22 chances. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins is coming off a four-touchdown performance and will get the start. Take the points.

Alabama faces a tough road matchup after a draining three-point loss to Georgia. The Tide will miss top receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, removing their main deep threat on late downs and in the red zone. Tennessee’s defense is among the nation’s best, ranking top five in EPA/play allowed and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 94.8 rating (5.2 net yards per pass). Tennessee’s defensive line wins 82% of its pass-rush battles, and with Alabama’s offensive line posting a 74% pass-block win rate, expect steady pressure in front of a raucous Neyland Stadium crowd. It won’t matter who starts at quarterback for Tennessee. The Volunteers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which should help limit possessions. Alabama has played the tougher schedule, but this line is inflated.

Nebraska boasts a stronger pass-block win rate (57% vs. 48%) and pass-rush win rate (58% vs. 51%) compared to Indiana. The Cornhuskers’ +9 sack differential (compared to Indiana’s +3) reflects this edge. Nebraska also leads in net yards per play (+1.12 vs. +0.88), while playing a slightly easier schedule. The Hoosiers will play consecutive road games following a trip to Rutgers last week. Memorial Stadium will be buzzing for Big Noon kickoff, and that energy could give Nebraska the push they need to not only stay competitive, but possibly pull off the upset. My model suggests the current line significantly undervalues Nebraska, projecting them as 6-point home chalk. Take the points and sprinkle some on the plus-money line for sure.

Florida is coming off a huge win over Ole Miss, which makes this a classic letdown spot. Teams that pull off big upsets and are then favored on the road often slip up. Missouri’s defensive line is healthy up the middle, which matches up perfectly against Florida’s run game. The Tigers are giving up only 2.21 line yards per carry and 2.82 yards per carry on early downs. On the other side, Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons should have more time and space to work with against a Florida defense that could be worn down after last week. The market has Florida favored by 5.5 points, but my numbers say this is basically a toss-up (Florida -0.6). I’d grab the points with Missouri.

Michigan’s offense has struggled to find its rhythm in the first month, averaging just 323.3 yards per game (118th in the FBS) and converting only 30.4% of its third-down attempts. Now, they face an Iowa defensive front that is the best in the nation against the run, giving up just 66 yards per game and 2.2 yards per carry. Iowa’s interior line is especially tough, stopping opponents behind the line on 28.4% of run plays. According to my model, Iowa holds the edge in 14 out of 15 key predictive categories—including point differential (+18.4 net margin), trench play, EPA per play, success rate, special teams, and, perhaps most importantly, strength of schedule. My model’s true line is Michigan -1. Take the points.

Delaware’s stats against Vanderbilt look better than they should because they padded them during late fourth-quarter garbage time. On regular downs, Delaware gave up pressure on more than 40% of pass attempts and couldn’t get their run game going between the tackles. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina not only held their own at West Virginia, but also rolled over Fordham. The Chanticleers have a +0.75 Net YPP, a 68% pass-blocking win rate, and a +2 sack differential. Delaware lags behind with a +0.15 Net YPP, a 59% pass-blocking win rate, and a -4 sack differential. When adjusting for strength of schedule, Coastal Carolina’s control at the line of scrimmage stands out even more. I’d also take a shot on the Chanticleers to win outright.

Julian Sayin put up strong passing numbers from a clean pocket against Ball State, but he was sacked twice on just four pressured dropbacks. Arch Manning completed all three of his pressured throws for 57 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.43 seconds per throw and avoiding risky mistakes. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp kept his creative defensive looks under wraps in Week 1, and those could make a big difference here. Texas is also motivated by last year's 14-7 loss, a game in which the Longhorns outgained the Buckeyes 336-203. With Ohio State breaking in new starters in the secondary and having to play in Austin's tough mid-to-upper 90s heat, Texas' strength up front should wear down the Buckeyes as the game goes on.

Hawaii is my top pick for Week 0, fitting the system profile as an underdog of four or more points with superior line play. Meanwhile, Stanford faces significant changes, from a new coaching staff to heavy roster turnover—especially in the secondary. That could spell trouble against Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang’s run-and-shoot attack, led by sophomore quarterback Micah Alejado, who completed nearly 70% of his throws in defeating Stanford by three points last year. Stanford’s new quarterback, Davis Warren, hasn’t taken a regular-season snap in two years. The Cardinal opened as three-point favorites, largely on perceived home-field advantage and Power Five reputation. The long flight for Hawaii doesn’t bother me in the first game of the season. Grab the points.

Ole Miss battled Georgia, with both teams exceeding 70 plays—a significant amount of time on the field for both units. The schedule did the Rebels no favors by scheduling this game for Thursday instead of Friday. Miami has advantages in point differential, third-down defense, red zone offense and defense, run defense, opponent passer rating, net yards per pass defense, and sack differential. Against fellow bowl opponents, the Hurricanes hold the edge in net yards per play, net yards per rush, net yards per pass, and net yards per point on both offense and defense. Miami controlled the line of scrimmage vs Ohio State; this is repeatable against Ole Miss. If you find -2.5 at -115 or better, consider making it a 1-unit play.

Iowa has an elite defense (15.2 ppg allowed) and is perfectly built to stifle a Vanderbilt offense missing its MVP, TE Eli Stowers, who opted out. Without Stowers, QB Diego Pavia loses his primary safety valve, forcing him into difficult 3rd-and-long situations against Iowa’s top-10 secondary. Iowa is nearly at full strength. While Vanderbilt’s path to 10 wins depended on volatile, high-risk plays, Iowa’s four defeats came by a mere 15 points combined—with no single loss exceeding 5 points—demonstrating the Hawkeyes are stronger than their 8-4 record suggests. In a low-scoring, physical game, getting 5.5 points with the better defense is simply too much value to pass up. The Hawkeyes went 7-0 ATS vs winning teams this season. More of the same.

Bowl games are often decided by who wants to be there. Houston is playing for a 10-win season in their home city (NRG Stadium is 10 mins from campus). LSU is playing with an interim coach, a backup QB, and a depleted roster. Houston QB Conner Weigman (64.6 QBR) is a legit starter and confirmed to play. LSU starting backup QB Michael Van Buren Jr. (31.9 QBR) against a complex defense is a recipe for 3-and-outs. Even if LSU moves the ball, they are ranked #108 in Red Zone scoring with their starters. McKenzie Agnello will start at Center after Demetrius Hunter left the Cougars. At New Mexico, Agnello posted a strong PFF run-blocking grade (73.8), which ranked 9th among all FBS centers that season.

New Mexico’s opponents have a .728 win percentage against fellow bowl teams. The Lobos posted a 4-2 SU record, 5-1 ATS, and finished 3-3 in the stats. Minnesota opponent's win percentage is .545. The Golden Gophers went 1-5 SU, were outgained in four of five games, and had a -141 YPGD. Minnesota went 0-5 on the road, and with the Bowl being played in Arizona, the crowd is expected to strongly favor New Mexico. Jason Eck’s remarkable turnaround at New Mexico has generated significant momentum for the program. The Lobos are bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 and have won six straight games. Eager for their 10th win, the Lobos are driven to make a statement by defeating a Big Ten opponent.

Hawaii’s coaching staff is steady, while Cal’s is unsettled. Timmy Chang has turned Hawaii around, going from three wins in 2022 to 8-4 this season. Against other bowl teams, Hawaii nearly matched its opponents in yardage, while Cal struggled, being outgained by 54 yards per game. Special teams is a big advantage for Hawaii: they convert 95.6% of field goals (Cal just 73.3%) and rank 26th in punting (Cal is 125th). The Rainbow Warriors are better on both lines, rank 3rd in red-zone scoring compared to Cal’s 73rd, and the strength of schedule is closer than you might think. The home team has a +3.6 point differential, while Cal is -4.7. My model has Hawaii winning 62.1% of the time, even without WR Jackson Harris.

Jacksonville State's most glaring advantage is the combination of the nation's elite rushing attack and Troy's historically poor run defense. Cam Cook leads all of college football with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, with Jacksonville State ranking 4th nationally in rushing offense at 258.2 yards per game. The Trojans rank 112th in rushing yards allowed per game at 182.3 yards, and their rushing defense ranks 115th overall at 4.8 yards per rush allowed. The Gamecocks are better in the trenches and have three wins against quality fellow Bowl teams. Troy mostly beat up on weak Bowl teams, and they will be without starting RB Tae Meadows. Jacksonville State ranks 6th in consistency, while Troy checks in at 50th. My model has JS winning outright.