Texas Tech, Houston collide in key early-season Big 12 showdown. ...

The Wolverines managed just seven points and 229 total yards before the controversial, game-ending Hail Mary. A week is not enough time to fix all of their issues before facing a fast and aggressive Oklahoma defense. Meanwhile the Sooners have had to do some shuffling on the offensive line with left tackle Michael Fasusi reportedly out. They won't have things easy against a Michigan defense that played well last week. This game feels like 22-9.

This line moved dramatically toward the Sooners after Michigan's poor offensive showing and controversial win over Western Michigan last week. But the number has since reverted a bit. I expect the Wolverines to play better on Saturday, but this nasty Oklahoma defense is the wrong team to get well against. I still don't know how Michigan scores; the Sooners limited the Wolverines to 13 points last season. Michigan's defense played well last week and has a chance to slow John Mateer & Co., but at some point the dam will break.

I liked the Mustangs in this matchup even before the Seminoles struggled closing out New Mexico State in last week's ugly 34-17 win. SMU enters the season with continuity at the most important positions. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is one of the winningest and most prolific signal callers in the country (18-6 over the last two seasons). Over that time, he has passed for 6,886 yards (third in the FBS) and 49 touchdowns (tied for eighth). He has four starters back on the offensive line, led by All-ACC tackle PJ Williams. With a front-loaded schedule, Mustangs coach Rhett Lashlee knew his team did not have time to ease into the season. He will have his team ready for tonight.

The Longhorns host the Bobcats one week before one of the biggest games of the season: No. 1 Ohio State at No. 5 Texas on Sept. 12. With that enormous matchup looming, the Longhorns, who already are dealing with all-America left tackle Trevor Goosby's bone bruise in his left knee, will emphasize two things against Texas State once the outcome of the game is no longer in doubt: 1) getting out of it healthy and 2) getting it over. Texas also has loads of depth on defense, especially on the line and off the edge, so the Bobcats aren't likely to get any cheap garbage time scores. I could see this as a 45-10 game early in the fourth quarter that never reaches 60 points.

New Spartans coach Pat Fitzgerald performed miracles at Northwestern, but that seems like ages ago. In his last four seasons in Evanston, he went 14-31, including a 4-20 mark over his last two years. He also hasn't coached since 2022 when the landscape of college football was much different. And, unlike other coaches in the first year at a school, Fitzgerald did not have the benefit of a previous school from which to mine transfer talent. Though Toledo will be under a new coach also, Mike Jacobs brings several players from Mercer after taking the Bears to the FCS playoffs the last two seasons. Those include FCS defensive player of the year Andrew Zock. I don't hate a money line sprinkle on Toledo either.

This is the kind of game the Trojans usually win in a blowout. Since coach Lincoln Riley's first season at USC in 2022, in the Trojans' first game of the season against a non-Power 4 team, USC has won by an average score of 61-14. Ironically, the team that played the Trojans the best was the Spartans who, in 2023, lost by "only" 28 points. But that ended up being a pretty good San Jose State team that went 7-6. This year's Spartans are coming off a 3-9 season and returning just two starters. Meanwhile USC has the most returning starters in the nation, with 15, including quarterback Jayden Maiava. This one will get ugly in a hurry.

I don't like the direction of the UNC program under Bill Belichick, whose team went 4-8 last season, looking inept in multiple games. There is no indication that the talent has improved significantly, and the team will be without defensive coordinator Steve Belichick. Meanwhile TCU is a much more stable program under Sonny Dykes, who is 36-17 in four seasons in Fort Worth and has won nine games in each of the last two seasons. This year's offense will have a new coordinator, Gordon Sammis, who guided UConn to the 15th best scoring offense in the country last year. Transfer quarterback Jaden Craig of Harvard (5,299 yards, 48 touchdowns, 10 interceptions the last two seasons) gives TCU a smart, steady hand behind center.

Indiana is not a team that beats itself. The Hoosiers lead the country in turnover margin (1.40 per game) and rank second in penalty yards per game (26.9). Meanwhile, the Hurricanes can be their own worst enemy. They average 57.1 penalty yards per game (84th in the nation) and are coming off a 10-penalty game in the CFP semifinal. And that doesn't include drops, turnovers and game management issues that we've seen with coach Mario Cristobal's squad. Miami needs to play a clean game against a disciplined Indiana team, and I don't know if the Hurricanes are capable of that. In addition, Miami's ailing cornerbacks looked vulnerable against the Rebels, and I fully expect Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza to take advantage if they're not healthy.

When these teams met in October, Oregon held the Hoosiers to their co-lowest yardage total (326) of the season, and Indiana still won by 10. That game also was in Eugene. The Hoosiers are a team that doesn't beat itself and has few, if any, weaknesses. Meanwhile running back depth could be an issue for the Ducks. Leading rusher Noah Whittington is listed as questionable, and backup Jordon Davison is out. Oregon rushed for just 81 yards in the first meeting. Now that this line has dipped to -3 from -4, I'll gladly take Indiana.

When these teams met on Oct. 18 in Athens, Ole Miss played a whale of a game and still lost by eight. Georgia scored on each of its first eight drives before taking a knee to run out the clock on its last drive. A lot has happened since then. The Rebels famously lost their coach, Lane Kiffin, to LSU, and I think that his absence will play a bigger factor in the Sugar Bowl than it did during the first round game against Tulane. Meanwhile the Bulldogs defense has really locked down since that Ole Miss matchup, allowing 11.7 points per game. Georgia has the edge in coaching and in the trenches and is playing its best ball of the season.

I realize the Ducks' haven't had the toughest schedule in the country, but it has been much tougher than what the Red Raiders have faced. I'm sorry, but two blowout wins over highly overrated BYU and another win over Utah aren't enough to convince me Texas Tech is better than Oregon. I also like that the Ducks already have played in the playoffs this season, while the Red Raiders have been sitting since the Big 12 Championship Game. Going back to last season, the teams with a bye in the CFP are 0-5. Oregon covers.

Now that this line is Ohio State -7.5 (-110), I have to take a shot. The Buckeyes are giving up just 8.2 points per game this season, which is tied with the 2011 Alabama defense for the best since at least 1995. I love the matchup of Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia against mistake-prone Miami quarterback Carson Beck. Meanwhile, I trust that Buckeyes coach Ryan Day has addressed the offense's pass protection issues over the team's extended break since the Big Ten Championship Game. I don't expect Ohio State will need to score a ton of points to cover.

The Longhorns defense will be under an interim play caller as Pete Kwiatkowski was fired after the season. Maybe more importantly the unit will be without six starters who opted out, including linebacker Anthony Hill, safety Michael Taaffe and cornerback Malik Muhammad. Meanwhile defensive ends Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham have opted out for the Wolverines. If Michigan can't generate a pass rush, Arch Manning could be in store for a big day. Give me the Over.

Warning: I've been wrong on Oklahoma all season. I keep fading the Sooners because of their pop gun offense, but their elite defense keeps bailing them out. In their narrow 23-21 win over Alabama one month ago, they were outgained 406 yards to 212 but turned three Crimson Tide turnovers into 17 points. But can Oklahoma's defense do it again on Friday? I'm going to say no. I realize that Alabama's offense failed to move the ball in the SEC Championship Game, but all it needs to do on Friday is not turn the ball over because the Tide defense should give the offense opportunities. Give me the plus-money on Alabama in what's a coin-flip game.