8 Expert Picks
Both starting quarterbacks are out for the Cure Bowl...
Will we see a different Alabama team in the CFP?...
Is the wrong team favored? ...
Pitt thrived on the road this season...
Would anyone like to volunteer to join Clemson's
Will LSU be motivated to play in the Texas Bowl?...
Will Bryce Underwood play for Michigan? ...
Will Cincinnati's late season slide continue in the Liberty Bowl?...
Jacksonville State's most glaring advantage is the combination of the nation's elite rushing attack and Troy's historically poor run defense. Cam Cook leads all of college football with 1,659 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, with Jacksonville State ranking 4th nationally in rushing offense at 258.2 yards per game. The Trojans rank 112th in rushing yards allowed per game at 182.3 yards, and their rushing defense ranks 115th overall at 4.8 yards per rush allowed. The Gamecocks are better in the trenches and have three wins against quality fellow Bowl teams. Troy mostly beat up on weak Bowl teams, and they will be without starting RB Tae Meadows. Jacksonville State ranks 6th in consistency, while Troy checks in at 50th. My model has JS winning outright.
Troy is missing apparently its leading rusher and four starting offensive linemen due to injury, opt-outs, etc. And the Trojans can't stop the run, allowing 183.2 YPG. Thanks to the nation's leading rusher in Cam Cook and dual-threat QB Caden Creel, Jax State is fourth nationally in rushing. Half unit. Both the AL.com guys previewing the game like the Gamecocks.
Low as it might seem, this total is higher than it's been in several seasons. It is not high enough. Army has picked up the pace on offense, with a No. 67 ranking for snaps per game. Navy has picked up the scoring pace and forged a No. 31 ranking with 32 ppg. Midshipman QB Blake Horvath airs it out 12 times a game and is hitting on 62% with nine TDs. The rivals might not have quite entered the 21st century for offense but have booked a departure out of the 20th. Unless the coaches go scared conservative on play-calling, this matchup should easily find the 40s in points.
Though the Commander-in-Chief Under trend hasn't been quite as compelling in the past few years, the fundamentals still suggest it be the first angle explored in these service academy games. So overwhelming had the trend been for years that we saw this matchup posted at a mere 28 (!) total two years ago. Dueling options almost mirroring one another keep the clock and usually the chains moving, and while Navy might be able to deviate slightly more with the more-accomplished Blake Horvath at QB, we doubt the Mids get to 31 points like they did a year ago. Unders are 16-2-1 in the last 19 Army-Navy games (though over last year)! Play Army-Navy Under (at Baltimore)
I think this game is one that features two teams that are mirror images of each other. Both are solid along the offensive line and both can run the ball WHEN they want to. Defensively they are fundamentally sound and do a great job of minimize the big play. 5.5 points is a bit too much for me, when the matchup says it should be close to a pick'em.
While Rhode Island squeaked past a four-loss opponent last Saturday in the first round of the FCS playoffs, UC Davis kicked back for some R&R with a bye after navigating its rugged Big Sky schedule. The Aggies own just one SU loss at home as freshman QB Caden Pinnick developed on a fast track in his first college season. The Rams get stuck with a late kckoff -- 10 p.m. (ET) their time -- following a 2,600-mile commute. This spread belongs at a full TD.
There's no shade on the Hoosiers coming from this side. Indiana beat Oregon on the road in rather decisive fashion and wrecked lesser opponents all season. That's precisely the problem, though. IU has not truly been tested, and in games when it faced adversity -- Iowa and Penn State -- it only pulled off marginal wins. Ohio State has only allowed two (two!) opponents to score more than two touchdowns in a game. It is 11-1 ATS with the lone failure being a 24-point victory (-29.5). No doubt Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers raring to go, but against this Buckeyes defense, for a team that has not played a ranked opponent in two months, it is a believe-it-when-I-see-it situation.