I’ve doubted Indiana long enough and now I’m done. This team is absolutely for real and they’re going to prove it in Miami’s home stadium on Monday night. The Hoosiers’ defense has only given up more than 20 points twice: at Penn State and in garbage time against Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Don’t expect Miami to find a ton of success against that unit. On the other side, I think the Hurricanes will keep the game close before Fernando Mendoza leads Indiana to two fourth quarter touchdowns and an improbable National Championship to say the least. Indiana 27, Miami 17.
MIAMI GARDENS – The actual line of this game is a full point lower (-7.5) in the hours and minutes leading up to kickoff, which is what we are picking here. Indiana has been the best team this season by margin. Miami may be the hottest team running into the national championship. While UM is at home, the crowd is not be as green-and-orange dominant as most expect – not that it will matter to IU either way, but it has at least a 65-35 advantage. It’s tough to see the Hoosiers suddenly falling apart in this spot, though the way the Hurricanes played Ohio State certainly gives pause. With the line coming down into a reasonable zone (buy -7, -120), the move is Indiana.
Look for the Hurricanes to lean into the one component in this matchup where they have the advantage, and that's the offensive line. In the trenches Miami has a huge size difference, which means they'll try to shrink the game there with Mark Fletcher and their run game. Expect the Canes to chew up a lot of clock, with the ability to keep this game under that 8.5 number.
Indiana allows 11.1 ppg, second fewest in FBS. Miami grants 14.0 ppg, fifth lowest. The defense also rate highly for sacks, with Miami No. 1 and Indiana tied for second. If these are not ingredients enough for a defense-dominated game, consider that Miami's massive D-line should be able to control the Hoosiers' modestly sized O-line. Unders have done well with these teams, with both 4-2 below the total in their last six outings. Indiana's affection for long, clock-eating drives clinches this pick.
Did you really think I wouldn't back my Canes? Now simply deciding whether to call in a favor or two and get tickets. If it wasn't on a Monday night I might. Wish it was on a Saturday night. I'm surprised at this number especially playing on UM's pseudo-home field -- although I'm sure it will be half Indiana fans on Jan. 19. Miami's defense is so good, and Indiana's equally so, that there may not be 20 total points scored. So heck yeah I'm taking 8.5 to where now in theory a two-point conversion can't beat me.
Indiana has emerged onto the scene and shocked the norms of college football by going undefeated this season, beating Alabama and Oregon in the playoff games by a combined score of 94-25. Do you think they can cover against Miami laying nine points or less? I knew in the Big Ten championship game that we were seeing a special kind of team when they knocked off the best defense I've ever seen in Ohio State. Coach Curt Cignetti has been at Indiana for 2 years, and he's 26-2. His coaching reminds me of Nick Saban, who has all angles covered for his team, and he demands excellence. One fumble lost all season is one of the minor details Cignetti has preached. Indiana for the win.
The temptation to simply side with rampant Indiana at whatever the price is understandable, given the dominating form over Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs, seen off a combined 94-25. Yet we recall struggles vs. Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State in the Big Ten final; the Buckeyes are the only common foe with the Canes, and Miami arguably was more impressive in its 24-14 Cotton Bowl win over OSU. Indiana has been a bully most of this season, and the script could flip on the Hoosiers if Miami holds its nerve, establishes the punishing ground game that has helped it get to the final, and QB Carson Beck meets the moment. Not impossible! Play Miami-Fla (at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami).
Indiana is not a team that beats itself. The Hoosiers lead the country in turnover margin (1.40 per game) and rank second in penalty yards per game (26.9). Meanwhile, the Hurricanes can be their own worst enemy. They average 57.1 penalty yards per game (84th in the nation) and are coming off a 10-penalty game in the CFP semifinal. And that doesn't include drops, turnovers and game management issues that we've seen with coach Mario Cristobal's squad. Miami needs to play a clean game against a disciplined Indiana team, and I don't know if the Hurricanes are capable of that. In addition, Miami's ailing cornerbacks looked vulnerable against the Rebels, and I fully expect Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza to take advantage if they're not healthy.
I’ve been way off in the College Football Playoff games as evidenced by me liking Texas Tech and Alabama on New Year’s Day. Both of these Big Ten teams were awesome and their defenses looked impenetrable. Indiana shockingly won in Eugene in October, 30-20, so I lean towards Oregon in the rematch. Like Miami, Indiana hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game this season, but I have to think that Ducks' OC Will Stein will make the necessary adjustments to succeed. I have continued to doubt the Hoosiers, but their offense led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is impressive. Either way, I think this one is decided by four points or less, something like 27-24 Ducks.
It’s quite tough to beat a top 10 college football team twice in one season. Remembering that Indiana beat Oregon at its own place by 10 points tells you the first result was no fluke. What’s been most impressive about the Hoosiers is how they have completely snuffed out most opponents, including holding Ohio State and Alabama to a combined 13 points. The win over the Tide was a shock to the system, but there’s no doubt that the Ducks present a far greater challenge given their playmaking talent. The Hoosiers’ size on both lines coupled with Curt Cignetti’s magic has them as the rightful favorite in the College Football Playoff. Now that the line is down to a field goal, it’s time to play.
When you look at rematch games, it always comes down to what little adjustments teams make over the previous matchup. When facing Indiana, it really is about discipline and execution, which is tough to game plan for and adjust to. The Hoosiers simply do not make mistakes and this spread is close enough to definitely reflect that notion.
Amnesia helps here. Forget that Indiana was recently the losingest program in FBS. These Hoosiers are the best team this season, and it's not debatable. They have not lost a fumble since their opener and have committed just eight turnovers. Only one team has been assessed fewer penalty yards. They lead everyone in third-down conversion success. They have dropped just a half-dozen passes. They amassed twice as many sacks as their opponents. Their TD advantage: a staggering 76-13. If such overwhelming evidence is not enough, they beat Oregon 30-20 in Eugene. Wish the hook would go away, but we are fine with laying 3.5.
Indiana has burned me quite often this year so maybe I should just pass, but it's so hard to beat a really good team twice in one season in this sport. Ask Georgia. Or Alabama (vs. Georgia in the SEC title game). In four of the five total College Football Playoff rematches, the team that lost the earlier matchup came out on top. Indiana can win by 4, though, that's fine by me.
This national semifinal game should probably be the national championship matchup. The storyline from the first meeting was that Oregon only got 81 yards on 30 rushes and was also sacked six times. Indiana took the game over in the 4th quarter, a sign of things to come from head coach Curt Cignetti, who has taken Indiana to a 25-2 record in his two seasons. Cignetti is a stone-cold winner. In this recent era of NIL signings, there is no better example of changing a program into a winner than Cignetti. The SEC had control of the college football landscape, but now the Big Ten is going for its third straight championship. I think Indiana is the team to win from the Big Ten.
I'm looking at the Peach Bowl total over 46.5, with Oregon being the key to the game getting over. My thinking is that Indiana will control the tempo, and Oregon's going to have to catch up. Oregon dominated Texas Tech 23-0 last week, but the week before, against James Madison, it was 51-34. They let the Dukes back in. Oregon went 7-7 to the over this season. Indiana went 8-6 to the over, scored 30 points at Oregon on October 11th, and scored 41.6 points a game this season, which was fifth in the nation. Over is the play.