6 Expert Picks
Two 8-4 teams meet in the Veterans Bowl...
Will we see a different Alabama team in the CFP?...
Is the wrong team favored? ...
Will LSU be motivated to play in the Texas Bowl?...
Will Bryce Underwood play for Michigan? ...
Will Cincinnati's late season slide continue in the Liberty Bowl?...
Low as it might seem, this total is higher than it's been in several seasons. It is not high enough. Army has picked up the pace on offense, with a No. 67 ranking for snaps per game. Navy has picked up the scoring pace and forged a No. 31 ranking with 32 ppg. Midshipman QB Blake Horvath airs it out 12 times a game and is hitting on 62% with nine TDs. The rivals might not have quite entered the 21st century for offense but have booked a departure out of the 20th. Unless the coaches go scared conservative on play-calling, this matchup should easily find the 40s in points.
Though the Commander-in-Chief Under trend hasn't been quite as compelling in the past few years, the fundamentals still suggest it be the first angle explored in these service academy games. So overwhelming had the trend been for years that we saw this matchup posted at a mere 28 (!) total two years ago. Dueling options almost mirroring one another keep the clock and usually the chains moving, and while Navy might be able to deviate slightly more with the more-accomplished Blake Horvath at QB, we doubt the Mids get to 31 points like they did a year ago. Unders are 16-2-1 in the last 19 Army-Navy games (though over last year)! Play Army-Navy Under (at Baltimore)
I think this game is one that features two teams that are mirror images of each other. Both are solid along the offensive line and both can run the ball WHEN they want to. Defensively they are fundamentally sound and do a great job of minimize the big play. 5.5 points is a bit too much for me, when the matchup says it should be close to a pick'em.
While Rhode Island squeaked past a four-loss opponent last Saturday in the first round of the FCS playoffs, UC Davis kicked back for some R&R with a bye after navigating its rugged Big Sky schedule. The Aggies own just one SU loss at home as freshman QB Caden Pinnick developed on a fast track in his first college season. The Rams get stuck with a late kckoff -- 10 p.m. (ET) their time -- following a 2,600-mile commute. This spread belongs at a full TD.
There's no shade on the Hoosiers coming from this side. Indiana beat Oregon on the road in rather decisive fashion and wrecked lesser opponents all season. That's precisely the problem, though. IU has not truly been tested, and in games when it faced adversity -- Iowa and Penn State -- it only pulled off marginal wins. Ohio State has only allowed two (two!) opponents to score more than two touchdowns in a game. It is 11-1 ATS with the lone failure being a 24-point victory (-29.5). No doubt Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers raring to go, but against this Buckeyes defense, for a team that has not played a ranked opponent in two months, it is a believe-it-when-I-see-it situation.
The Cavaliers have played excellent offense this year, but their defensive efforts are the reason why they are in this position to punch their ticket to the postseason. Look for them to be able to get both key and timely stops against the Blue Devils offense en route to running into the postseason.
With the spread being only four points, I actually think that's giving a nod and some respect to Indiana. The problem is that I don't think the Hoosiers can find enough points to successfully cover this spread. Ohio State's passing offense is going to be the reason why they are able to get to cover town vs Indiana.
Three weeks ago, Virginia trounced Duke in a game the Cavaliers led 31-3 entering the fourth quarter. The win was the ninth over the Blue Devils in the last 10 meetings. UVA stands 8-4 ATS this season. If those numbers aren't persuasive enough, consider that WR Cam Ross and OLT McKale Boley were cleared to play Friday after their status was in doubt. The Cavs' calling card on offense is the ground game, which Duke is ineffective at stopping. Would have preferred a three-point spot given that Vrginia does not score much, but the hook is not a major concern.
Ohio State’s dominance this year is in question due to their Big Ten schedule overall. We saw the defense have their issues early on last week against Michigan, where the Wolverines red zone non execution resulted in two field goals. Indiana has been waiting for this moment and I expect a tight finish, where the victory is decided by three points or less. Grab Indiana.