Duel-threat QBs tend to thrive against defenses that do not excel against the rush and the pass. Penn State’s is superb at stopping the run, which could force so-so thrower Riley Leonard to challenge an above-average pass defense more than he would prefer. The Fighting Irish were afforded two fewer days than Penn Stare for R&R and prep time. Notre Dame’s main statistical concern is a low conversion rate in the red zone, an area in which the Nittany Lions are super-strong. Notre Dame is dealing with a flu outbreak. While most of the affected players reportedly are not starters, its depth could be compromised.

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Pick the side that is almost untouched by transfer defects over the opponent that has been hit hard. The Bulls enter with minimal erasures on their roster. The Flames do not have a lot, but the goners are key: QB Kaidon Salter, top RB Quinton Cooley and three offensive linemen. The fill-ins must deal with LBs Shaun Dolan and Red Murdock, who amazingly are the top two tacklers in the FBS. Buffalo owns the edge in momentum, too, having closed with four straight-up wins. The betting public all season has overestimated the Flames, who stand 3-8 ATS.

Laying nearly double-digits with a favorite whose offense is hardly explosive carries risk. However, there is enough evidence to justify it. Chiefly, the difference in impact from injuries and the transfer portal is vast. Minnesota’s roster remains largely intact while Virginia Tech's is down two-dozen players, notably its QB and three starters in the secondary. The Gophers’ formidable defense ranks 10th in the FBS in points allowed and should keep Tech out of the end zone. Gophers coach P.J. Fleck is 5-0 straight-up in bowl games, and Minnesota has won seven bowls in a row, which indicates the Gophers take them seriously. They enter on a 7-1 ATS streak this season as well. In P.J., we trust.

The original favored team is now the underdog because of mass opt-outs. LSU was giving points while at nearly full strength. Meantime, the Tigers have said sayonara to four primary pass receivers, including the top two, plus assorted pass protectors, which has flipped the odds. Esteemed QB Garrett Nussmeier will miss his pals. Baylor owns the momentum, having closed with six wins by an average of nearly 15 points. Bears coach Dave Aranda will be locked in as LSU's former defensive coordinator. Motivation in bowls is challenging to gauge, but LSU's motor might not be fully running in this third-tier postseason game.

Quite an odds flip on this matchup, with Washington going from a clear underdog to a narrow favorite. Both rosters have been stripped of opt-out players, most significantly Louisville QB Tyler Shough. However, fill-in Harrison Bailey did start at Tennessee (albeit four seasons ago) and did complete every pass this year (albeit only eight attempts). Cardinals coach Jeff Brohm is somewhat of a quarterback whisperer. Washington averaged just 22.5 ppg, 110th in FBS. Its pass defense is da bomb but, with Shough departed, the Cardinals likely will adhere to the ground game. The Huskies' wins total away from home: zero.

Louisiana Tech had closed the book on its season after finishing 5-7, then had to reopen it while replacing Marshall in this bowl. It is reasonable to wonder if the Bulldogs will be fully engaged. They must hurriedly prepare for Army's triple-option offense without three of their main defenders who bowed out. Their offense is among the worst in FBS at converting possessions into points. One might also wonder if the Black Knights can recover from the beatdown by Navy, but indications are they wish to rinse out the bad taste from that loss. They were afforded two weeks to bounce back and tend to take bowls seriously, having won five of the past six straight-up.

This number makes sense given that both teams' games averaged 60 points. A few factors suggest that this one will fall short of five-dozen. Three impact WRs -- Winston Wright Jr. and Chase Sowell for East Carolina, KC Concepcion for N.C. State -- will bypass the bowl. Plus, rain is expected throughout the day in Annapolis, which could further impede both passing attacks. Both sides might do more handing off than usual, which likely would generate an Under.

These spreads with a hook are tough to resist, especially when the underdog is streaking and the favorite is slumping. B.C. has covered five in a row while Nebraska has fallen straight-up in five of six. Slumping in tandem with his team is QB Dylan Raiola, who is at risk here. The Eagles' 16 interceptions is the 10th most in FBS. They have lost fewer pivotal players to the portal. The Huskers' defense has been hit hard, a welcome development for B.C QB Grayson James in his fourth start.

UConn has come a long way since recently ranking among the dregs of FBS programs. Here is doubting the Huskies have come far enough to trip up North Carolina, even with Mack Brown gone as head coach. UConn failed to beat three ACC squads on its schedule and has a 20 percent lifetime success rate against the league. The Heels gained some continuity with interim Freddie Kitchens being retained on new/old coach Bill Belichick's staff. UNC, not surprisingly, was hit by opt-outs but retains enough depth to handle this challenge.

The list of missing players says it all. For USC, gone are 19 in the portal and three to the NFL draft, with the RB group particularly short-handed. For A&M, not nearly as many, though the D-line has thinned out. USC QB Jayden Maiava was decent in his three starts, but he was surrounded by more help. The Aggies finished second in the SEC, the Trojans tied for ninth in the Big Ten. Quite a difference. A&M limped to the finish line in the regular season. Now refreshed, it should show out against the decimated Trojans.

The law of gravity has been defied with this spread. It opened at less than a touchdown and has kept going up, up, up. Reason is, Washington State has not only lost nearly 30 players to the portal, including 10 starters, but its head coach and both coordinators also are gone. Still, given the unpredictability of bowls, perhaps none should carry a line this high. Syracuse was involved in nine games decided by one score and has covered as a favorite in one of the last six outings. Replacement Cougars QB Zevi Eckhaus was a standout in his past life, albeit at FCS member Bryant. An Orange crush might occur, but this inflated spread is unwarranted.

Most mid-level bowls seem to be missing a least one starting QB. Not this one. Tech's Haynes King and Vandy's Diego Pavia are dynamic, able to move the chains with their feet as well as their right arm, and could deliver a points fest. The number of impactful defensive players sitting out is higher than those on offense, which should enhance the scoring. The Yellow Jackets average 29.1 ppg, the Commodores 26.7. No reason the total should not eclipse the 50-point mark.

Perhaps no bowl spread has nose-dived like this one. As Oklahoma has shed players left and right, the number has plunged so deeply that Navy is flirting with favoritism. At last count, the Sooners had lost 28 players to the portal, chiefly at wide receiver, where the lone survivors have gotten little game action. Good luck throwing against the Midshipmen, whose 17 interceptions are tied for fourth most in FBS. The formidable defense also has been stripped nearly bare of standouts, and the Midshipmen's triple option offense led by crafty QB Blake Horvath could befuddle it. The Middies have covered in eight of the last 11 and have had two weeks to come down from the clouds after running roughshod over Army.

This spread has soared from just over a TD into double-digits. The lone impetus appears to be stellar TE Harold Fannin Jr. electing to play after speculation had him sitting. Should a tight end impact the line this much? Though Arkansas State has a defense made of tissue, let's trust veteran coach Butch Jones to whip up an effective game plan. His teams are 6-2 straight-up in bowls. (Bowling Green's Scott Loeffler, conversely, is 0-2.) The underdogs can score, having averaged 30.3 ppg. The Over is tempting, but a spot that has climbed above a TD-plus-FG is too alluring to pass up.

Both teams' offenses revolved around RBs -- D.J. Giddens (K-State), Kyle Monangai (Rutgers). Both teams must audible with their cornerstones sitting out. Here is a vote for Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano, who is 6-2 outright in bowls and does not need to worry about yanking his team out of a late-season slump, as his counterpart does. One stat stands out: Rutgers has committed eight turnovers, second fewest in FBS. The Knights flexed more offensive muscle than usual, averaging 27.9 ppg. The Wildcats possesses the talent edge, but a team that once had designs on a Big 12 title might need to dig digger for inspiration than their opponents will.