Mike's Picks (5 Live)
Statistically, there is lttle separating these fine teams. Keep in mind that Miami carved out its lofty rankings against an ACC schedule, while A&M's numbers were etched in the more formidable SEC. Home-field advantage is usually negligible. Perhaps not so in this case, where the Aggies' 12th Man is hardly a myth. These fans can be disruptive. They won't impede the A&M offense, which scored at least 31 points in the seven games prior to a season-closing clunker against Texas. Ace RB Le'Veon Bell is expected to return after rehabbing an injury through the back half of the season.
Western Michigan took its lumps with season-opening setbacks to a gauntlet of opponents -- Michigan State, North Texas (in OT), Illinois. That set up the Broncos to blow through their MAC schedule, losing just once SU. Their calling card is defense. The unit yields just 18.2 ppg, 14th best in FBS, and the yardage allowance is 15th. On offense, QB Broc Lowry is a dual threat, with six rushing and no passing TDs in the past four games -- all victories. Kennesaw State has lived a charmed life this season after winning twice outright a year ago. Fairy tales usually end, and the Owls' wondrous journey should close out with a loss.
Let's go with continuity here. Missouri State is missing coach Ryan Beard, off to Coastal Carolina -- and replaced by OC Nick Petrino (son of Bobby), who has yet to serve as a head coach. The Bears also bid adieu to five impactful transfers, notably WR Tristian Gardner, who tied for the team lead for TD receptions. Arkansas State is pretty much impact, and veteran coach Butch Jones has won five of his last six bowls SU. Though both offenses are potent, they tend to produce more points in home games. Neither side enjoys the luxury here, and the Red Wolves' defense is marginally superior.
It's not uncommon for a QB to bypass a bowl game. In this unusual case, both starters are sitting out. For USF, Byrum Brown is serving as an unofficial assistant coach as he mulls over his playing future. Replacement Gaston Moore makes his first career start, with the same number of interceptions and TD passes (three) this season in reserve. For Old Dominion, freshman Quinn Henicle, who has tossed 15 passes, steps in for the transferring Colton Joseph. The Monarchs allow a fraction less than 20 ppg, while the Bulls’ yield is a bit higher because opponents have trailed by large margins throughout the year. The defenses should do their part to deliver an Under.
Low as it might seem, this total is higher than it's been in several seasons. It is not high enough. Army has picked up the pace on offense, with a No. 67 ranking for snaps per game. Navy has picked up the scoring pace and forged a No. 31 ranking with 32 ppg. Midshipman QB Blake Horvath airs it out 12 times a game and is hitting on 62% with nine TDs. The rivals might not have quite entered the 21st century for offense but have booked a departure out of the 20th. Unless the coaches go scared conservative on play-calling, this matchup should easily find the 40s in points.
While Rhode Island squeaked past a four-loss opponent last Saturday in the first round of the FCS playoffs, UC Davis kicked back for some R&R with a bye after navigating its rugged Big Sky schedule. The Aggies own just one SU loss at home as freshman QB Caden Pinnick developed on a fast track in his first college season. The Rams get stuck with a late kckoff -- 10 p.m. (ET) their time -- following a 2,600-mile commute. This spread belongs at a full TD.
Three weeks ago, Virginia trounced Duke in a game the Cavaliers led 31-3 entering the fourth quarter. The win was the ninth over the Blue Devils in the last 10 meetings. UVA stands 8-4 ATS this season. If those numbers aren't persuasive enough, consider that WR Cam Ross and OLT McKale Boley were cleared to play Friday after their status was in doubt. The Cavs' calling card on offense is the ground game, which Duke is ineffective at stopping. Would have preferred a three-point spot given that Vrginia does not score much, but the hook is not a major concern.
Home field matters sometimes in these conference title games. After an overtime loss in Week Two against Group of Five powerhouse North Texas State, Western Michigan took down five straight visitors. Miami's season rescue by QB Thomas Gotskowski after Dequan Finn abruptly quit to prepare for the NFL draft is laudable. Still, this is just Gostkowski's third start -- in a league championship game, no less. He likes to tuck it and run, and the Broncos defense is geared to stop such tactics.
North Texas has been a money-maker for ATS backers, having won 10 games. Why stop now? The Mean Green have piled up a minimum of 52 points in all but one of their last half-dozen games behind in-the-groove QB Drew Mestemaker. The defense ranks sixth in the 14-team AAC. Tulane owns a .500 record ATS, with three consecutive setbacks at home. Though Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall sticks around for the game, he could have one eye on the Kentucky job that he accepted this week.
This spread keeps climbing based largely on the perception that James Madison might pour it on to impress the playoff committee. Yet Troy sports the third stingiest Sun Belt defense based on points allowed. QB Goose Crowder is back in form with two weeks of action after a broken collarbone waylaid him. Coach Bob Chesney remains on duty but surely has been distracted by trying to salvage the small recruiting class at his next gig --UCLA. Conference title game odds do not get bigger than this one, and a cover is more than doable.