Indiana allows 11.1 ppg, second fewest in FBS. Miami grants 14.0 ppg, fifth lowest. The defense also rate highly for sacks, with Miami No. 1 and Indiana tied for second. If these are not ingredients enough for a defense-dominated game, consider that Miami's massive D-line should be able to control the Hoosiers' modestly sized O-line. Unders have done well with these teams, with both 4-2 below the total in their last six outings. Indiana's affection for long, clock-eating drives clinches this pick.
Amnesia helps here. Forget that Indiana was recently the losingest program in FBS. These Hoosiers are the best team this season, and it's not debatable. They have not lost a fumble since their opener and have committed just eight turnovers. Only one team has been assessed fewer penalty yards. They lead everyone in third-down conversion success. They have dropped just a half-dozen passes. They amassed twice as many sacks as their opponents. Their TD advantage: a staggering 76-13. If such overwhelming evidence is not enough, they beat Oregon 30-20 in Eugene. Wish the hook would go away, but we are fine with laying 3.5.
What happens when a powerful offense clashes with a powerful defense? In this case, the D prevails. Miami has yielded a microscopic 9.7 ppg during its six-game win streak. While QB Trinidad Chambliss is a major headache for any defense, the Hurricanes can contain him. They have notched a dozen sacks in the playoffs. The 'Canes offense won't knock anyone's socks off, but QB Carson Beck is playing error-free, with no picks in the postseason. Ole Miss loses two position coaches to LSU this week. On the surface, that is repairable, but their departure and the near-departures of both coordinators is an unwanted distraction at crunch time.
The presence of four-loss Illinois State in the FCS finals has delivered a double-digit spread. While the Redbirds have impressed, they are dealing with their fifth straight playoff game away from home and seventh in the last eight. The travel could take its toll. Montana State is well-rounded, ranking eighth in scoring offense and defense in FCS. The Bobcats wield an average points margin of 20 per game. Only twice have their wins come by fewer than this number. These championship games can get out of hand. Prior to last year's three-point thriller, the margin were 22, 24 and 28 points. We might have another here.
Both teams can score, with SMU ranking 24th and Arizona 26th in FBS scoring. The defense are decent, but prolific QBs Kevin Jennings (SMU) and Noah Fifita (Zona), each of whom tossed 26 TD passes, are on hand to slice and dice them. Plus, neither side is affected by transfers or opt-outs. Given all that, the total came up surprisingly small, with a traditional points-filled bowl appearing likely.
The military academies are just short of a sure thing in bowls. They have won outright nearly three-fourths over the past two decades-plus. The spread might seem daunting, but Cincy enters on a four-game SU slide and without a horde of key players, notably QB Brandon Sorsby and RB Evan Pryor. Not only is the entire starting secondary absent but some backups as well. Navy does not throw often yet is effective when doing so. Offensively, these aren't your grandad's Midshipmen. They rank 35th for points in FBS, so Navy can score enough for a cover even with the hook.
Rice, with five wins, slipped into the bowl through the backdoor. The Owl's top two QBs have departed. Texas State scores in bunches. But, 18.5 points? Really? Rice retained their RBs and are a rush-first team, so the inexperience at QB might not be super-impactful. The Bobcats' defense was porous enough, especially against the run, that the coordinator was fired. It's plausible that the favorites will not take Rice seriously. If the underdogs eat up minutes with an effective rush attack, the spread should wind up inside this massive number.
The first meeting generated 78 points. Rematches rarely unfold in the same manner as their predecessors. Georgia's last four outings ended with 45, 38, 25 and 35 points. One reason is the Bulldogs' recent reliance on the ground in lieu of QB Gunnar Stockton, who threw for fewer than 200 yards in the last three. Both defenses are formidable. Georgia's 15.9 ppg allowance was second lowest in the SEC, while Ole Miss was fifth best at 19.3. If the favored Bulldogs seize a lead, they can keep the clocking ticking late.
In a recent four-game stretch, Coastal Carolina and its opponents amassed 82, 71, 67 and 80 points. Then came the Chanticleers' two final outings, where their foes rang up 51 and 59 -- each number larger than this total. Opt-outs and injuries make predicting the ATS winner dicey. What is indisputable is that Coastal games keep the scorekeeper busy. Louisiana Tech is down to QB Trey Kukuk with two position mates injured. No prob. All he did was guide the Bulldogs to 34 points (in a one-overtime encounter) and 42, in which the opponent tallied 30.
When Appalachian State finished the season 5-7, one win below bowl eligibility, it went into offseason mode. But not enough six-win teams were available, so the Mountaineers volunteered to step in. Problem is, numerous players did not raise their hands. Both QBs, AJ Swann and JJ Kohl, fled the scene, and the remainining QBs threw a combined 39 passes, completing fewer than half. Georgia Southern won the regular season meeting by five points while dominating more than the margin suggests. The Eagles should run with ease through the worst rush defense in the Sun Belt.
Let's start with some streaky trends (or trendy streaks): Viirginia is 6-0-1 on Unders in its last seven outings, Missouri 6-2 on Unders in its last eight. The Tigers normally flex a muscular offense, but transferring QB Beau Pribula is taking a pass and offensive coordinator Kirby Moore has accepted a head coach position. With the leading rushers in their leagues -- Ahmad Hardy (Mizzou), J'Mari Taylor (UVA) -- as the headliners and a first-year freshman replacing Pribula, a fast-moving game with relatively few throws awaits.
News flash: Lane Kiffin is not coaching this game, which means LSU should be getting a field goal at minimum. Even Kiffin might not be able to pull this off. Numerous Tigers have flooded the exits -- mainly on defense, where the best pass rusher, three contributing linebackers and top two backs will bypass this bowl. The offense has been hit not as hard, though the missing include offensive coordinator Joe Sloan. Houston has almost everyone hanging around, chiefly QB Connor Weigman. The Cougars own a massive motivational edge, what with LSU eager to turn the tattered page, and get a de facto home game to boot.
North Texas head coach: gone. Mean Green offensive coordinator: gone. QB Drew Mestemaker, the foremost passer in FBS, has signed on, but he intends to transfer. Will he be fully engaged? San Diego State has suffered defections on offense yet its A-plus defense has nearly all hands on deck. The Aztecs' D is ranked fifth in FBS with a remarkable 12.6 ppg allowance. RB Lucky Sutton, who gained 100-plus ypg, will hear his name called often against a soft Mean Green rush D.
Had it not run into CFP quarterfinalist Texas Tech twice, BYU would be unbeaten SU. The Cougars were in contention for the playoffs until the finish line. Georgia Tech was in the race, too, but faded to close 1-3 outright. The Yellow Jackets enter without several injured and transferring players, whereas the Coogs kept nearly everyone onboard. Fiery QB Bear Bachmeier will make sure his teammates are engaged. Before Bachmeier showed up, they certainly took last year's bowl seriously in thrashing Colorado by 22 points.
In its three bowls between the 2016-18 seasons, Army tallied 38, 42 and 70 points. So there is precedence for plenty of scoring in the Black Knights' bowls. This season, aside from the always points-starved matchup with Navy, their scores look quite normal. UConn ranked 15th among the most productive offenses in FBS. While QB Joe Fagano and both O-tackles have departed (along with coach Jim Mora Jr.), All-America WR Skyler Bell and premier RB Cam Edwards have pledged to play -- subject to change, of course. The Huskies are unlikely to throttle down, especially with soon-to-depart offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis serving as interim boss.