Mike's Picks (1 Live)
While Rhode Island squeaked past a four-loss opponent last Saturday in the first round of the FCS playoffs, UC Davis kicked back for some R&R with a bye after navigating its rugged Big Sky schedule. The Aggies own just one SU loss at home as freshman QB Caden Pinnick developed on a fast track in his first college season. The Rams get stuck with a late kckoff -- 10 p.m. (ET) their time -- following a 2,600-mile commute. This spread belongs at a full TD.
Three weeks ago, Virginia trounced Duke in a game the Cavaliers led 31-3 entering the fourth quarter. The win was the ninth over the Blue Devils in the last 10 meetings. UVA stands 8-4 ATS this season. If those numbers aren't persuasive enough, consider that WR Cam Ross and OLT McKale Boley were cleared to play Friday after their status was in doubt. The Cavs' calling card on offense is the ground game, which Duke is ineffective at stopping. Would have preferred a three-point spot given that Vrginia does not score much, but the hook is not a major concern.
Home field matters sometimes in these conference title games. After an overtime loss in Week Two against Group of Five powerhouse North Texas State, Western Michigan took down five straight visitors. Miami's season rescue by QB Thomas Gotskowski after Dequan Finn abruptly quit to prepare for the NFL draft is laudable. Still, this is just Gostkowski's third start -- in a league championship game, no less. He likes to tuck it and run, and the Broncos defense is geared to stop such tactics.
North Texas has been a money-maker for ATS backers, having won 10 games. Why stop now? The Mean Green have piled up a minimum of 52 points in all but one of their last half-dozen games behind in-the-groove QB Drew Mestemaker. The defense ranks sixth in the 14-team AAC. Tulane owns a .500 record ATS, with three consecutive setbacks at home. Though Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall sticks around for the game, he could have one eye on the Kentucky job that he accepted this week.
This spread keeps climbing based largely on the perception that James Madison might pour it on to impress the playoff committee. Yet Troy sports the third stingiest Sun Belt defense based on points allowed. QB Goose Crowder is back in form with two weeks of action after a broken collarbone waylaid him. Coach Bob Chesney remains on duty but surely has been distracted by trying to salvage the small recruiting class at his next gig --UCLA. Conference title game odds do not get bigger than this one, and a cover is more than doable.
Notre Dame has been on an extended weekly blowout tour, winning nine straight games by double digits -- topped by last Saturday's 70-7 spanking of Syracuse. However, opening kickoff times for those outings ranged from early afternoon to mid-evening. Let's see how they adjust to a 10:30 (ET) start out west. A rough season for Stanford has turned somewhat for the better in November. The Cardinal were competitive in defeats to Pitt and North Carolina before slamming rival Calfornia last Saturday. The Irish's latest win was bittersweet, with LBs Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and Chance Tucker lost for the season. This is a sizable number for ND to cover with the body clock set on an early Sunday morning.
Northwestern games lean toward relatvely low scores. The Wildcats do not score in bunches and prefer runnng to passing. With snow and heavy wind in the forecast, this matchup shapes up as points-starved. Illinois likes to air it out more but must alter its game plan to deal with the elements. Harsh weather can drive down the total; this one has dpped a couple of points, not enough to steer us off.
Can't ignore these numbers: 0-4, 6-0. Those are the respective SU records of Wisconsin on the road and Minnesota at home. The Badgers are playing much better than the Gophers but, being run-oriented, seem unlikely to capitalize on a soft pass defense. Wisconsin is on its fourth QB of the season, freshman Carter Smith, and he is not exactly tearing it up with his 53 percent completion rate. The percentage probably will not rise, given the expected unpleasant weather, as the Badgers have little choice but to stick to a ground game. If the home side offense can generate 20 points, that should be enough.
We can't exactly draw a line through Pitt's loss to Notre Dame, but coach Pat Narduzzi appeared to place such relatively little interest in the game in the midst of the ACC schedule that it can be discounted. Otherwise, the Panthers have won six in a row SU, scoring between 30 and 53 points in each. Now they welcome back do-it-all RB Desmond Reid, out last week wth an injury. Temperatures touching the freezng mark is a bonus for the hosts aganst the visitors from balmy south Florida. With an ACC Championship berth on the line for both, there is no motivational edge.
Sore-footed Louisville QB Miller Moss is expected to soldier on, but his usual sidekicks will be absent. It's quite enough to miss your foremost WR (Chris Bell), but your four best RBs (notably the Browns, Keyjuan and Isaac) are gone as well. A promising season has gone to seed with three conseutive SU loss entering the game. The momentum rests wth Kentucky, which was playng well before the schooling from Vanderblt last Saturday and can secure a bowl berth with a W.
The swirl of attenton around where Lane Kiffin coaches next season has knocked down this line to seven. Thank you, rumors. Ole Miss is a better team with an ideal matchup, and the Rebels players overlow with motivation. If Kiffin leaves, the CFP committee could dock its rankng, so the Rebs will seek a one-sided win. Ole Miss unleashes star RB Kewan Lacy (second in SEC rushing, frst in run TDs) against a defense ranked 15h in the league for points and yards allowed. Trinidad Chambliss is the latest in Kiffin's product line as a QB whisperer. The perception of teams motivated by needing a sixth win to qualify for a third-rate bowl is overblown. Winning the Egg Bowl is the extent of MSU's inspiration.
Washington's offense is shaky enough on the road when at full strength. Erase WRs Denzel Boston and Raiden Vines-Bright, along with O-linemen Landen Hatchett and Drew Azzopardi, with injuries, and the Huskies might be scrounging for points. They have managed just 17 in the latest two away games. UCLA got a lift on the injury front when QB Nco Iamaleava was cleared after a concussion scratched him for the Ohio State loss. The Bruins get some relief after getting hammered by the Buckeyes and Indiana, the nation's two finest teams, in recent weeks.
Five SU losses in its past six outings, and Colorado is getting less than a touchdown against a ranked opponent? Arizona State is gunning for a Big 12 title game berth. It gets an ideal matchup, with dual threat QB Jeff Sims able to chew up the Buffaloes' bottom-ranked defense in the league. Future NFL WR Jordyn Tyson seems likely to play after an injury threatened his status. On offense, the Buffaloes' beat-up O-line could struggle to protect freshman QB Julian Lewis in just his third start.
Tennessee's 10 consecutive defeats in Gainesville is the only explanation for such a tiny spread. The Volunteers own the nation's second most prolific offense. While their defense leaves much to be desired, Florida lacks the wherewithal to keep scorng pace. The Volunteers have essentially enjoyed two weeks off with a bye and a walkover win against New Mexico State. They have lineup holes in the lineup because of injuries but are far healthier than the ravaged Gators, who might also be distracted by rumors swirling around the coaching search.