Buffalo
Bills
BUF
Last 5 ATS
W/L7-1
ATS6-2
O/U5-3-0
FINAL SCORE
23
-
6
Minnesota
Vikings
MIN
Last 5 ATS
W/L6-2
ATS4-4
O/U1-7-0
Last 5 ATS
7-1
Win /Loss
6-2
6-2
Spread
4-4
5-3-0
Over / Under
1-7-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Caesar’s. Don’t look at Josh Metellus’ box scores, because he’s only cleared this line in 2/7 games. But do look at the Bills box scores, because opposing hybrid safeties have been soaring over their tackle lines. Metellus is deployed all over the field and should be active both against the run (he’s second on the Vikings in run tackling) and on pass plays/Josh Allen scrambles. I like him against the run today specifically, because his average depth of tackle (5.6 yards) likely comes into play - James Cook averages 5+ yards on man/gap runs, and that’s the one defensive area where the Vikings have struggled (5+ yards per carry allowed). I also don’t have faith in the Carson Wentz-led Vikings offense to sustain drives.
A version of this game was played Sunday night. The difference? The Bills will not turn it over as much as the Bears. Josh Allen, for all of his faults, generally protects the ball better than he did early in his career. The Bucs kept the game close due to extra possessions; Chicago should have run away with it. Buffalo will fall into a similar rhythm if it runs directly at Brian Flores’ defense, keeping Minnesota honest and allowing Allen time to work. The Vikings may flash a bit with Carson Wentz behind center, but it’s tough to see them going shot for shot with the Bills. Getting or buying -3 is crucial as we want that protection in what could be a tight battle.
Minnesota gives up an NFL-low 3.1 completions per game to opposing tight ends. Only Juwan Johnson in Week 5 was able to snag four completions against the Vikings. With Dalton Kincaid sharing time with Dawson Knox as well as Jackson Hawes, I bet Kincaid to stay Under on receptions even if he breaks a big play or two.
James Cook III has played in seven games, and he has 707 rushing yards along with seven touchdowns scored in his last six games. He's gone over 95 yards in four of the seven games. The total for this game is 87.5 yards. But the number that keeps popping up in my head is his carries for the game at 18.5. He's gone over that total in his last three games and five of his seven games. The Vikings have the No. 16 rush defense, holding opponents to 116 yards per game. I think the Bills will run Cook at least 21 times in this game for a yardage variance between 65 and 130 yards. I'm on the over for carries at 18.5.
What happens when the top-ranked offense collides with the top-ranked defense? Not many points, we believe. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores, mastermind of the league's blitzing-est team, will unleash the dogs on Josh Allen, who is surprisingly human against extra rushers. Entering the weekend, his passer rating was 20th best among starters in such situations. Injured Vikings QB Kyler Murray gives way to Carson Wentz, who doesn't throw much. In a previous start this season, he attempted 20 passes. The Vikes are kings of the hill for points allowed (13.3 average). Look for plenty of Wentz handoffs to keep Allen on the sideline.
Josh Allen is up against one of the most dangerous defenses in the league, and I expect Joe Brady will want to give him a chance to get the ball out quickly with consistent pressure expected. Ty Johnson will be key in blitz pickup but I also expect him to find opportunities to win on routes despite the Vikings allowing just 18.4 RB receiving yards per game. The Ravens lead the league in that stat and Johnson still managed three catches for 19 yards last week, his fourth time in five games getting over this number. I think you can play this up to that same number and expect he'll be north of 20 receiving yards on Monday.
The Vikings' defense has a tough test ahead, facing the top-scoring offense in the league, and even at home, I think they'll only be able to do so much. However, one area I expect they'll have success is causing at least 1-2 turnovers. Josh Allen tends to put the ball in danger against tougher opponents, with his only pickless games this season coming against the Raiders, Lions and a struggling Texans defense in Week 1 (though he threw a ball right at a Houston defender in the end zone late). The elite Vikings defense should be able to get to him for at least one interception, and I'd take this prop all the way up to -125.
The Bills are the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL at 33.3 points per game, while the Vikings are the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing only 13.3 points per game. They clash on Monday night in Minnesota, and I'm leaning toward the Over because the Bills allow 25.9 points per game. That's an average of 59.2 points per game that the Bills produce. They also allow 352 yards per game, which is good enough for 24th in the league, and I think Carson Wentz can expose them at home a little. The Bills have gone over all five games when the total is 50 or less. Over is the play.
There's no question that Carson Wentz is an upgrade for the Vikings, but I still don't think it's enough to beat and cover against the Bills. The one potential weakness for this Vikings defense is stopping the run and I think James Cook and Josh Allen will be able to run the ball. It's also notable that while the Vikings defense is great, they haven't faced the best set of offenses in the first half of the season (with one or two exceptions). Yes, the Bills have been giving up some points, but I think they do just enough to get out of Minnesota with a win and a cover.
Are you aware that favorites are 13-1 SU in Week 9 and unbeaten away? The lone loser was New England at home vs. Green Bay. So it figures that to be the weekly trend one of the rare times I like a dog. Actually, Buffalo winning by a field goal would be perfect but apparently non-Bears NFC North teams just don't lose, dang it. The Bills have some offensive line injury concerns ahead of their matchup against the NFL's top defense. And that Kyler Murray is hurt might be a blessing in disguise for the Vikings, who have won six straight at home and held opponents to single-digit points five times.
DraftKings. The Vikings have had a backup tight end catch a pass in all but one game this season. Right now, that backup is Ben Yurosek, who has two catches in the last three games. Playing 40-50% of the snaps and running 20-25% of the routes, Yurosek should catch a pass in a very plus matchup. The Bills allow the ninth-most catches to tight ends per game, and are in the bottom five of opponent target rate to in-line and backfield looks (Yurosek will occasionally line up as a fullback). Plus, with Jauan Jennings ruled out, the Vikings could lean more into 12-personnel.
The Lions beat the Vikings last week by running the ball 39 times for 230 yards. Led by James Cook and Josh Allen, Buffalo has the weapons to try a similar approach. It makes sense, too, because Minnesota owns the NFL's top pass defense by EPA and leads the league in pressure rate. The Vikings also allow the fewest completions per game (16.3). At home that number drops to 14.3 per game. Look for a run-focused attack from Buffalo as Josh Allen completes 20 or fewer passes.
Carson Wentz returns to the starting quarterback role for the Vikings on Monday night. In the season opener, when Kyler Murray exited the game, Wentz threw three touchdown passes on relatively low volume. The Bills rank 22nd in opponent passing TD rate allowed with a 5.6% touchdown rate. They allow the sixth-most passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (15 passing TDs). We know the Bills are a defense to attack through the air. And of course, the Vikings' best weapons are their receivers. Look for Wentz to find Justin Jefferson & Co. at least twice. And I love that we get plus money for this bet!
In terms of EPA, the Vikings rank No. 1 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. Brian Flores' defense also leads the NFL in sack rate (10.2 percent) and points per drive allowed (1.18). If any defense can slow down Josh Allen, it is Minnesota's. Carson Wentz taking over for Kyler Murray might be an upgrade, as Murray has compiled the lowest passing success rate of his career. The Bills are playing a high rate of man coverage -- a look Murray has been terrible against. Look for a thriller down to the wire and grab the points.
Caesars. This is a sneaky spot for Khalil Shakir. The slot receiver has functioned as a safety blanket for Josh Allen throughout his career, and this season is no different. Shakir has been targeted on 15 of his 51 routes when Allen has been blitzed, catching 11 of those passes -- his 0.29 targets per route run leads the Bills. The Vikings blitz a ton -- 69%, almost double that of any other team. And their two-high safety/zone-heavy scheme is conducive to Shakir’s route tree.
The Bills vs. Vikings matchup is similar to last week's Lions vs. Vikings one in that it matches up a great offense (Buffalo is second in total offense, first in scoring) vs. a great defense (Minnesota is second in total defense and first in scoring) and a bad offense vs. a bad defense. And I expect similar results to the Lions' win. Buffalo's defense is also better than the Lions unit that held the Vikings in check. We don't know what the move to Carson Wentz will do for Minnesota's offense, but not sure it matters. Brian Flores' defense blitzes more than anyone in football. Josh Allen has been very effective against the blitz in 2026, particularly by EPA per dropback (second in the NFL).
Carson Wentz will be under center on MNF when the Bills take on the Vikings. This is good news for Justin Jefferson as the pair has shown very good chemistry. This is an excellent matchup in what should be a competitive game environment. This number is moving quickly so I would pounce on this ASAP! Tune into the Friday Prop show for additional analysis.
I have been a seller of the Vikings all year; the team is one-dimensional and built on a defense that creates havoc at an incredible rate under Brian Flores. The offense is limited, but against the Bills there are avenues to success regardless of who plays QB. This game was priced at Buffalo -2.5 on the lookahead, and honestly, I came away more impressed with the Vikings' fight in Detroit than I was with Buffalo posting garbage points against a third-string Ravens QB. Look for the Vikes' run defense to be challenged this week in practice and provide a better tackling effort. My lone concern? Christian Darrisaw's sore shoulder along the Vikings' offensive line, but I wanted us to have the hook in pocket.
The Bills' biggest game of the season turned into a clunker with Lamar Jackson hurt on his first snap, and you can't tell much about the defense facing an emergency QB. But the Vikings offense is coming off two uninspiring efforts against questionable defenses, and the unit has managed just six offensive TDs since Week 2. That's not going to cut it against the best scoring offense in the league, even with the best scoring defense on the other side of the ball. The Bills have scored 24+ in every game, 26+ when not turning the ball over five times and 33+ in five of seven games. A good Lions defense got to 19 against Minnesota, and the Bills should reach 20 and cover.
