Detroit
Lions
DET
Last 5 ATS
W/L1-1
ATS0-2
O/U2-0-0
FINAL SCORE
31
-
41
Buffalo
Bills
BUF
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-0
ATS2-0
O/U2-0-0
Last 5 ATS
1-1
Win /Loss
2-0
0-2
Spread
2-0
2-0-0
Over / Under
2-0-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Maddox will undergo season-ending surgery for a left foot injury that he sustained during the Lions' 41-31 loss to the Bills on Thursday, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Oliver (hip) is considered day-to-day and could be available for the Bills' Week 3 tilt against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
The Bills are treating Moore as day-to-day after he was diagnosed with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder after exiting Thursday's 41-31 win over the Lions, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Hutchinson logged three tackles (two solo), including 1.0 sacks, during the Lions' 41-31 loss to the Bills on Thursday night.
Bishop logged six tackles (five solo) in the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions on Thursday night.
Chubb logged four tackles (two solo), including 1.5 sacks, in the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions on Thursday night.
Bernard logged five tackles (three solo) and a pass defensed in the Bills' 41-31 win over the Lions last Thursday night.
Campbell made six tackles (two solo) in the Lions' 41-31 loss to the Bills last Thursday night.
Rousseau logged three solo tackles for two sacks in Thursday night's 41-31 win over the Lions.
Tale of two teams last week with the Lions coughing up a massive advantage at home only to barely survive, while the Bills rallied on the road. In both cases, offense dominated and defense disappointed, though Buffalo flashed more on the latter end with its new attacking style. Opening a new stadium will give the Bills some extra juice early, but that should dissipate as the game advances. The Lions do not perform as well outdoors, but the elements Thursday will be less problematic. Significant underdogs on short turnarounds in Week 2 generally perform well, and Detroit’s rushing success should keep this close, even with a banged-up line. Though +6 never came officially, you should buy it up to -115 or so, if possible.
I do believe this game gets loose late, but as noted above, the expectation is a lot of running in the first half. And based on the usage from Sunday, I don't necessarily think we see that much from the other backs in Detroit, not at least while Jahmyr Gibbs is healthy. It's a short week so maybe that changes and we see a little more Sione Vaki, but this is a monster matchup for the Lions and Gibbs should be full go.
I'm expecting a high-scoring game, and I think the Lions are going to attack Buffalo's defense with the ground game. The Texans had a lot of success with it last week and held the ball for 36:17 minutes in the game and only 23:43 minutes for the Bills. The Texans rushed the ball 30 times for 124 yards. The Lions have a great running back in Jahmyr Gibbs, who rushed 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-30 win over the Saints. I think Gibbs gets over 90 yards. Over the total is the play.
If the Lions have any shot tonight, and I think they do, then they surely have to get to at least 24. The last time the teams played, even 44 wouldn't have been enough to beat the Bills. Our model has Detroit with 27 points. Buffalo's defense left much to be desired last week in Houston. All of our other books have this listed 24.5 so right in the sweet spot would be swell.
The Lions will be without two starters on the O-line with Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany ruled out. That's on top of losing center Cade Mays prior to the start of the season. That should make things more difficult for Gibbs on the ground, particularly with the game script expected to be much different from last week when Detroit went up 21-0. Gibbs rushed for 90+ yards in just five games last year, and the Bills held former running mate David Montgomery to 3 yards per carry in their opener. I expect Gibbs will be needed more as a receiver in this one with the Lions a moderate underdog, and unless he rips off a big gain (always a possibility), he'll stay under this number.
I have ZERO interest in getting in front of this full game under because these teams are so explosive, but I do think we see these teams start a little slow. Both of them love to run the ball (Buffalo attempted two passes in its first two drives in Week 1) and are willing to control the ball and milk the clock some. I think we see a ton of James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs early in this game, which lends itself to a lack of scoring before a second-half outburst. The line is telling too that the books aren't offering the key number of 28 and still juicing it to the under.
Both the Lions and Bills scored 30 points in Week 1. They also both allowed 30 points. Detroit got gashed for over 400 yards by Tyler Shough and the Saints. But you know Dan Campbell will have the Lions at a higher level of focus for this one. Buffalo was one-dimensional offensively; Campbell can exploit. Jared Goff went off for 494 yards and five TDs vs. the Bills in 2024. We’ll take the points in what should be a back-and-forth affair.
Not one, but two different New Orleans tight ends scored against the Bills on Sunday in the Saints furious second-half comeback. Meanwhile, Dalton Kincaid was busy finally producing a result we've been expecting on a regular basis. With D.J. Moore in town to distract defenses, Kincaid got to eat in Week 1 and as long as he's healthy, he's very much a viable option to find the end zone. We're getting good value here on a guy who will be able to leak out easily in the red zone with Detroit's defense collapsing to stop Josh Allen from running.
I'm a big "Jamo in Primetime" guy generally speaking but this matchup is tailor made for the speedy former first-round pick who is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. A ridiculous FOUR different receivers had 20+ yard catches against the Bills. They can be exploited down the field. I have concerns about the Lions pass protection and how long Jared Goff will be able to hold the ball before getting pressured, but we're getting 2-1 on Jamo here in a big spot where he'll be featured in the downfield passing attack.
This looks like a great spot to back the best QB in the NFL who gets a tasty matchup against the Detroit Lions. This game has shootout written all over it and features the highest projected total so far this season. I was encouraged by Allen’s usage with new HC Joe Brady at the helm. The Lions are certainly capable of pushing Buffalo into a pass heavy gamescript. Allen is capable of getting home even if that isn’t the case.
It’s official Dalton Kincaid Szn at PropStarz HQ and I’m all in on the stud Tight End who had a hyper efficient Week 1 performance. I expect the good times to keep rolling with new HC Joe Brady who has said Kincaid is not on any kind of snap count and we got a glimpse of that against the Texans. Now he gets to face a Detroit defense that just conceded 400+ yards to New Orleans pass catchers. Detroit is also capable of pushing Buffalo and this game has the highest projected total on this weeks slate. It certainly helps that Kincaid has the best QB in the NFL throwing him passes and I like his chances of having another big performance on TNF.
Despite playing extremely limited snaps the previous two seasons, Dalton Kincaid has quietly been one of the most efficient Tight Ends in the NFL. Kincaid played 42-of-57 snaps in Week 1, a 73% rate he never came close to hitting in any game last year. With new Head Coach Joe Brady at the helm and Kincaid no longer being shackled by Sean McDermott and Brian Daboll, I expect Kinkaid to continue thriving considering he has the best QB in the league throwing him passes. This is an excellent matchup as it presents an opponent capable of pushing Buffalo. I am double dipping on Kincaid’s yards as well.
We've got ideal football weather in Buffalo on Thursday night at 68° with 4 mph winds and only a 3% chance of rain. It's a new stadium for the Bills; welcome to Highmark Stadium, but it's the same defenses for both teams. The Lions allowed 30 points to the Saints last week, as the Bills allowed 31 points to the Texans. I think this is a back-and-forth game with both offenses doing pretty much everything they set out to do. It'll be an entertaining first game for Buffalo's new stadium. Over is the best play.
We saw both offenses really answer the call last weekend, scoring 30 points in each matchup. We're looking forward to seeing which defense will be more than likely showing up to play better in Week 2. I believe with both teams being able to score offensively, this game will come down to a field goal.
It's a pretty big number for a WR2 who is also contending with pass catchers at the TE and RB position, but the Lions will be chasing points and they're likely to feed their big gamebreaker Jameson Williams. It was a pedestrian box score for Williams last week, but that was mostly due to inefficiency on plenty of targets (caught 4 of 9 for 45 yards). Look for him to bounce back with another big target share and air yard share in an anticipated shootout. Notable that I don't mind his over receptions (4.5) at plus money or his longest reception of 24.5.
The Bills were a middle of the road passing team last year, 15th of 32 teams at 216.6 yards per game. In Week 1 under Joe Brady, Josh Allen threw for 334 yards against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Lions defense looked Super Bowl worthy in the first half vs. the Saints, holding Tyler Shough to 85 yards and the Saints to 111 total yards. Then the second half happened. Saints ended up with 469 yards, Shough had NFL-high 410 and Chris Olave 10-182. D.J. Moore's debut, going against Derek Stingley, had a team-high 8 targets, which he got exactly zero times last season with Caleb Williams.
DJ Moore might not be a prototypical No. 1 receiver, but he is unquestionably the Bills' top wideout. And this Lions' defense just gave up 182 receiving yards to Chris Olave. The Lions remain without safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, and on Tuesday they added corner D.J. Reed to the injury report, listing him as limited with a foot injury. Even if he suits up, I love Moore to notch 60-plus receiving yards in what should be a shootout.
TeSlaa anytime touchdown is one of my favorite long-shot plays for Week 2. The Week 1 box score says zero catches, but the usage was encouraging. He played 68% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, and Dan Campbell said this week that TeSlaa has “earned the right” to get more targets. The bigger reason I like it is his red-zone role. TeSlaa caught only 16 passes as a rookie, but six went for touchdowns. Five of his six receptions inside the opponent’s 20 also resulted in scores. At 6-foot-4, he gives Jared Goff a massive target near the goal line. After Amon-Ra St. Brown’s huge Week 1, Buffalo should give him plenty of attention in the red zone. That could create opportunity for TeSlaa.
I’m not letting the Week 1 box score scare me away from Williams. He finished with just 45 yards, but his usage was perfect for attacking this over. Williams saw nine targets, ran a route on 37 of Jared Goff’s 40 dropbacks and commanded 128 air yards, accounting for 56% of Detroit’s total air yards. His 23% target share was also second on the team. The bigger story was the drops. Williams had two credited drops, including one on a perfectly placed deep ball that could have turned into a long touchdown. The opportunities could be there, especially in a favorable script.
These two teams both scored and allowed 30 points in Week 1, though it took OT for Detroit. Even taking out overtime, the Lions were torched by Tyler Shough, who finished with 410 yards. Josh Allen had 334 yards himself last week against a tough defense while leaning on DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid, and I expect him to look for those big gains again, playing a team that can run up the score in the Lions. I think this one is worth laddering to 300+ yards, and my only worry is the state of the field in Highmark Stadium's first regular-season game.
DraftKings. I’m buying DJ Moore’s big debut as a Bill. He put up 100 yards in what was a brutal matchup on paper against the Texans defense. He’ll now face the Lions who allowed the fifth most receiving yards to first reads last season (170 yards per game) and the third most yards to outside receivers (121 per game). In Week 1, they were torched by Chris Olave for 182 yards (29% first read rate). Moore had a 33% first read rate and aligned out wide for 71% of his snaps against Houston. I like the notion that we are buying into Josh Allen’s WR1 in a smash spot (all stats via Fantasy Points Data). I’d bet this to over 64.5 yards.
