Sportsline

This plus-odds player prop line has hit in three of four of Jared Jones’ starts. …

Fernando Tatis Jr. is out for San Diego. ...

Tampa Bay's Nick Martinez is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA at the Trop this year. ...

Will Cabo Verde pull another upset? ...

Nathan Eovaldi has a 82% player prop trend that fits the criteria for today’s matchup. …

Arizona got pummeled on Saturday. ....

Robert Gasser’s .187 xBA has him in the 97th percentile. …

A major mismatch in starting pitchers between Chase Burns and Elmer Rodriguez. ...

Over 3.5 goals paid off in both games featuring these teams on Matchday 1. ...

Argentina looks formidable right now. ...

Fade Conor McGregor after a 5-year layoff?...

Unfortunately, Japan are going to be without Takefusa Kubo for this match, but I still don’t think that’s enough to slow this side down. Tunisia have been downright terrible. So bad that they fired their manager and brought in Hervé Renard. This one is pretty simple for me. Tunisia have lost three straight matches and have been outscored 11-1 in those games. They’ve conceded five goals in back-to-back matches, made Sweden look like a World Cup winning side, and we just saw what the Dutch did to Sweden. This line has moved a ton, but I still think there’s a little value left on Japan -1 if you act fast.

The main argument I'm seeing in favor of Tunisia is that they'll have a "new manager bump" after dismissing their former match following their thrashing by Sweden. I don't believe in this bump for the national team, as this team continues to struggle with problems both on and off the pitch. Japan are the better team here and it's not close. Tunisia lost 5-1 to Sweden and at this time Sweden are losing 4-1 to Netherlands. Japan tied Netherlands 2-2. They are the better team, with better attack and better depth, and I expect them to get the job done.

FanDuel (+137). I like this as a sneaky spot for Taj Bradley. The Twins righty has cleared this line in 8/13 starts. While the Diamondbacks are tough to strikeout on paper, they are surprisingly playing into Bradley’s better split by starting six lefty hitters - Bradley has a 27.8% K% and .234 xBA against the reverse platoon. And six of the D-Backs have at least a 20% K% against righties this season. Additionally, Arizona is not hitting, with just a .647 OPS over the last two weeks against righties.

Zac Gallen has allowed three runs, or more, in eight of his last nine starts with a 1.53 WHIP on the season. Taj Bradley is the more dependable arm, currently, despite allowing four runs, or more, in all four of his last starts. The Twins have won five of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a loss. Arizona has lost five of their last six night games following a home win.

Huge number, yep, but absolutely, positively Arizona should not be getting this. So I'll throw the Marlins money into this one and at worst an even for the day. Although yeah I think this wins. I don't really understand the pricing to be honest and obviously I am paying out the nose for that insurance. I'm fine with it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are home favorites tonight based on being nine games above .500 at home. They also have their team leaders red hot at the plate with Ketel Marte extending his hit streak to eight games last night. Corbin Caroll just in his last two games has hit a grand slam, and went 4 for 4 Friday night. Yet, I expect the Dbacks to extend Zac Gallen one inning to many off of yesterday’s extended bullpen usage with Michael Soroka exiting early. Tail the Twins.

Reid Detmers is throwing well for the Angels right now. But the Athletics own a 1.070 OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks, so they should plate some runs. The Angels also should against Jack Perkins, who owns a 7.62 ERA as a starter. The A’s bullpen boasts a 6.95 ERA in the last two weeks, too.

Paul Skenes will be on the mound tonight for the Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado. Ironically, Colorado was the last win he has had, as the Pirates have lost each of his last six starts. In the original series last month, Skenes shut down the Rockies lineup to just two hits through eight innings. In the lead off spot that game was Edouard Julien who went 0 for 3 that night. Tonight he is batting further down the order, which hopefully will get us two at bats against the Pirates bullpen. As since that eight inning performance Skenes has not went more than six innings on the mound. Value prop on Julien’s total bases/hitting combination line.

I am definitely getting better at domestic soccer because I know where to look. The WC is a bit trickier but I'm a tad surprised being offered 3.5. Ecuador is a defensive dynamo that had 13 clean sheets in qualifying and then allowed the one in an opening WC loss to the Ivory Coast. That's all I got ... have been to Ecuador if it matters, albeit briefly on the way to somewhere else in South America. I'd love to see Curacao, which is off the coast of Venezuela.

Germany brutally exposed Curaçao's limitations by thrashing the Caribbean nation 7-1 at the weekend. The winning margin could easily have been higher, as the Germans created chances at will. Curaçao is the smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup - and it showed. Ecuador will be disappointed to lose 1-0 to Ivory Coast on Matchday 1, as they were the better team and hit the woodwork a couple of times, but they should bounce back with a comfortable win against this weak Curaçao team.

Spencer Arrighetti gets a left handed heavy lineup and despite some added potential for regression in the runs allowed department, the strikeout stuff looks solid specifically against left handed batters. I'm taking the 6th strikeout at this price, one that I'm finding at least 15-20 cents of value on now with the confirmed lineup. He will need to avoid getting blown up and/or laboring through some deep counts, but Khalil Watson is in there tonight along with Petey Halpin, two lefties with little MLB experience this year, and batters that could get Arrighetti over the hump for Ks tonight.

Eli White has had a significant increase in playing time over the last week, with Atlanta dealing with players on the injured list. He actually had his best game of the season last Saturday with two doubles, and a home run. After going 0 for 3 yesterday with three strikeouts, I expect White to redeem himself. This is a circled regression spot for Kyle Harrison who is coming off cashing as a home underdog against Philadelphia, and has seen Milwaukee win his last ten starts. Play White over on his hitting combination line.

The xERA for Trevor McDonald is 4.29 in 42 innings since the start of May, while Max Meyer is sitting at 3.44 in 55 innings in that time. Miami is projecting to run six lefties in the lineup, and McDonald has been far worse in that split, allowing a .314 avg and four homers in 20 innings. He's allowed righties to hit just .169 without a homer in a similar span so it'll be on the lefty sluggers for the Marlins to get it done here. The biggest difference between these teams is the bullpen though, as Miami quietly have been one of the best bullpens in baseball over the last month, with a 3.35 xERA while San Fran's bullpen has been horrendous.

Holy Moly, I need to argue with the missus and storm out angry more often to Mom's as I raked Friday. Funny how when you don't check pitch-by-pitch do well as opposed I don't think I have ever checked a game live where the team I am betting against has not immediately scored. Don't get me started on OT/extra innings. But an optimism Train to Busan today, although that train didn't work out (great flick). I could walk up to 10 people on South Beach and ask them if they know who Marlins pitcher Max Meyer (7-0, 2.85 ERA) is and four would speak German (wearing brown socks), four would say "no comprendo" and the other two punch me. Meyer has been awesome.

Caesar’s. Well, I was on Nathan Eovaldi’s strikeouts in this matchup, before he was scratched earlier today. Mackenzie Gore will make the start instead, and even though he’s on four days rest, his preparation for the week could have been geared towards an expected extra day. Either way, the Padres bats have slowly come around against lefties, and have noticeably taken a more patient approach of late. Over the last two weeks, the Padres have a bottom ten chase rate and swing rate and overall this season see the eighth most pitches per plate appearance. As is, Gore is under this line in nine of 14 full appearances this season.