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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
Last 35 WCS
+1158.5
RECORD: 24-8-3
# 1 WCS EXPERT
+1158.5
24-8-3 in Last 35 WCS Picks

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Matt's Past Picks
Jul 19 2026, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Spain
1
vs Argentina
0
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+121
4-1 Last 5 WCS O/U
Analysis:

I was hoping it was England's year but hard to beat the unstoppable Lionel Messi in his final WC game against the impenetrable Spanish defense. It’s the first time since the FIFA rankings began in 1992 that the top-two teams in the world will meet in the World Cup final. Spain is the first team to get this far since Italy in 2006 while only allowing one goal in the entire tournament. The final is usually low scoring (cautious clubs in the first half) .... just not the past two. But those each involved France.

Pick Made: Jul 16, 10:40 am UTC on FanDuel
Jul 14 2026, 7:00 pm UTC
League
France
0
vs Spain
2
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

What a wonderful semifinal matchup outside Dallas on Tuesday. The only countries in the event yet to trail. So evenly matched that I almost passed but I'm gonna want a rooting interest so here we are. Spain won the last meeting 5-4 in the 2025 Nations League Final. I'm pretty darn sure we will not see nine goals Tuesday, although that would be fantastic. And I am going to lean Les Bleus simply as they have more offensive firepower. La Roja have looked a little ragged at times in that regard but are dynamic defensively. France won the lone WC meeting in 2006.

Pick Made: Jul 12, 8:05 pm UTC on FanDuel
Jul 12 2026, 1:00 am UTC
League
Argentina
3
vs Switzerland
1
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

I will not sit here and not have a rooting nor betting interest. No way. FIFA has become a joke. So lets put it this way: Lionel Messi will get the Jordan Rules but in a good way.

Pick Made: Jul 12, 12:35 am UTC on FanDuel
Jul 11 2026, 9:00 pm UTC
League
Norway
1
vs England
2
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

I consider this the moneyline through extra time but not to qualify -- I'm noticing at books that you have to pay a fair amount more to have that shot in PKs. I doubt this goes to PKs. Like many Americans, I have become a huge fan of Erling Haaland and Norway in particular. Obviously I knew Haaland but never watched him this frequently. Amazing player. And that Viking Row thing. Wonderful. So while Haaland may steal this himself, England is the better overall club. The Three Lions are unbeaten in all 13 competitive matches under Thomas Tuchel (12W, 1D) and had the audacity to win at Estadio Azteca last time out. Playing in Miami will feel like Boise compared.

Pick Made: Jul 10, 4:43 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jul 10 2026, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Spain
2
vs Belgium
1
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

Don't we have to see Spain-France in the semifinals? I'd use that to plan my next trip to the winning country instead of a coin flip. Meanwhile, is Belgium 4-1 good or is the United States simply that many years away from being a legit World Cup contender? I'd probably say 80% the latter. That was sad to watch. Also, and forgive me as I am relatively new to soccer domination, but you do have to score to win right? Spain hasn't allowed a goal in this tournament. Keeper Unai Simón has gone a WC-record 609 minutes without conceding a goal with six straight clean sheets dating to the 2022 Round of 16.

Pick Made: Jul 09, 10:23 pm UTC on bet365
Jul 09 2026, 8:00 pm UTC
League
France
2
vs Morocco
0
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

This number has gone up and up I'm not exactly surprised with France as the tournament favorite and looking largely stellar led by its Fab Four of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola. Les Bleus are unbeaten in 12 straight competitive matches (one draw) and try to become only the third nation to reach three consecutive World Cup semifinals. World No. 6 Morocco is certainly capable but tournament leading scorer Ismael Saibari (three goals) is in question after getting hurt in the R16. Morocco's last meeting vs. France was in the 2022 WC semifinals, and the French prevailed 2-0.

Pick Made: Jul 07, 4:00 pm UTC on BetRivers
Jul 07 2026, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Switzerland
0
vs Colombia
0
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+121
4-1 Last 5 WCS O/U
Analysis:

This is the last match of the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals and also the last played outside the USA, taking part in Vancouver Tuesday. Switzerland has one loss in its past 18 total matches, and Colombia is unbeaten in seven straight World Cup games. It has outscored foes 10-2 in those and kept a whopping five clean sheets -- including three straight entering Tuesday. It has allowed a single goal this year. The Swiss have totaled nine goals in this tournament -- but they haven't allowed more than one goal in any match and all three allowed beyond the 50th minute. Two of those were nearly clean sheets, and the Swiss did have one in beating Algeria 2-0 in the Round of 32.

Pick Made: Jul 06, 10:11 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jul 07 2026, 12:00 am UTC
League
United States
1
vs Belgium
4
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

Well, well, well. I wasn't going to play this game with USA star Folarin Balogun suspended for a red card from the last match. They said that wasn't appealable but FIFA announced Sunday in a stunner that it "suspended" that perhaps because the White House got involved. OK then. Suspension of a suspension. Huge news obviously as Balogun is our top scorer with three goals. The U.S. seeks its first appearance in a World Cup quarterfinal since 2002. Understandably, Belgian officials are apoplectic over all this. They are getting a raw deal, but we'll take it.

Pick Made: Jul 05, 5:28 pm UTC on Caesars
Jul 06 2026, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Portugal
0
vs Spain
1
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

The Iberian Derby. Is Monday the last World Cup game in the career of Portugal star Cristiano Ronaldo? I believe so. With France and Argentina both nearly being upset in the knockout rounds, we'd have to now say Spain has probably looked the best of any country thus far (that opening Cape Verde draw doesn't look so bad now). It has outshot its opponents 78-19 and not allowed a goal in four matches. Again, I am considering this play through extra time, but that's priced 50 cents higher at DraftKings. Fine by me.

Pick Made: Jul 05, 3:14 pm UTC on bet365
Jul 04 2026, 5:00 pm UTC
League
Canada
0
vs Morocco
3
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

This pains me a little because I root for Canada in almost every international competition if not playing the USA. And if this match were in Canada, then no bueno. But it's in Houston. I don't think there is really much argument that Morocco is better (24 spots higher in world rankings), it's just a matter of whether we get stung with a regulation draw. But I really can't justify Canada +0.5, either. Note that I am considering this a moneyline play through extra time (to avoid said sting) and not 90 minutes.

Pick Made: Jul 04, 3:44 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jul 04 2026, 9:00 pm UTC
League
Paraguay
0
vs France
1
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+268
5-2 Last 7 WCS ATS
Analysis:

I will bump this up to +2.25 to avoid the push on a two-goal Paraguay loss, which is kinda what I am leaning. France has looked truly awesome, but we saw Argentina have issues in the knockout rounds on Friday -- there is no benefit now for goal differential, so I think that matters a bit; just survive and advance like the NCAA Tournament -- and have had only a couple games overall this week see a team win by at least three goals, although France has done so in all three matches thus far. I think Les Bleus are now my favorite non-USA team. Very entertaining but I expect a defensive shell from Paraguay so hopefully we get 1-0 or the like.

Pick Made: Jul 04, 3:06 pm UTC on BetRivers
Jul 03 2026, 10:00 pm UTC
League
Argentina
3
vs Cabo Verde
2
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+268
5-2 Last 7 WCS ATS
Analysis:

Look, this is not the group stage. It does not matter whether Argentina wins by 1 or 5. Do I have a minor man-crush on Cabo Verde? Definitely do as it looks amazing there. For giggles I checked flights from Miami to (like I know the Cabo Verde capital name): If I left Monday, it would only take two days, being stuffed in a trunk via Indiana Jones and $2900 in gold coins given to a warlord who is oddly named Jimmy and wearing a Laverne & Shirley T-shirt. Think I'll pass. How fun would an upset be, though? I'll take a 2-0 loss.

Pick Made: Jul 03, 6:31 am UTC on BetRivers
Jul 03 2026, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Australia
1
vs Egypt
1
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

Neither country has won a knockout round match with Egypt in one for the first time. Mohamed Saleh apparently has been cleared from injury suffered in the group finale to play. He is one of five goalscorers for the Pharaohs thus far. Midfielder Hamdy Fathy missed the group finale but also will play. The Socceroos managed only two goals in the group stage -- both against Turkey (I'll spell that the new way when they also change salami spelling) when Australia managed a scant 28.4% possession.

Pick Made: Jul 02, 6:00 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jul 03 2026, 3:00 am UTC
League
Switzerland
2
vs Algeria
0
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+1042
14-2-3 Last 19 WCS ML
Analysis:

The Swiss are ranked 13 spots higher in the world than Algeria, and it has been a tough Round of 32 so far for the African nations other than Morocco. Current Algeria coach Vladimir Petkovic coached Switzerland from July 2014 to 2021. Led by Johan Manzambi, Switzerland didn't lose in group play, while Algeria got pounded by Argentina and allowed three goals in a draw against Austria. Algeria has never won a knockout round match. The Fennecs are winless in their last nine World Cup matches against European opposition (five losses).

Pick Made: Jul 02, 12:08 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jul 06 2026, 1:00 am UTC
League
Mexico
2
vs England
3
+1158.5
24-8-3 Last 35 WCS
+268
5-2 Last 7 WCS ATS
Analysis:

This is easily my most anticipated game of the tournament thus far to reach the quarters. England was my pick to win the World Cup entering the event but now I don't think so having to play in the cauldron that is Estadio Azteca -- and lucky to even advance past the DR Congo in the Round of 32 due to some Harry Kane magic. That building in Mexico City opened in 1966. Mexico has lost just twice in it. That's insane. I simply want a regulation draw and then enjoy extra time as a fan with that +0.25 having cashed (then I'll root for the Three Lions). Would so love to be there Sunday night.

Pick Made: Jul 01, 10:56 pm UTC on bet365
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