Martin's Past Picks
Atletico Madrid will aim to pile more misery on RB Salzburg when the teams meet in Austria this week. Salzburg have lost six out of seven Champions League games so far this season and have been eliminated from making the knockout stage. They suffered a humiliating 5-1 defeat to Real Madrid last week, meaning they have now conceded 23 goals in seven games. The players are rusty, as the Austrian Bundesliga is on pause for a two-month winter break, and they could be outclassed by a slick Atletico Madrid team.
Borussia Dortmund fired manager Nuri Sahin after a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Bologna in their last Champions League game. However, Der BVB are still on course to qualify for the knockout stage, and they could clinch a coveted top-eight finish if they secure a home win against Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday. Shakhtar have lost four out of seven Champions League games this season, and their chances of qualifying for the next round are miniscule. They lost 5-1 to Bayern Munich earlier in the campaign, and they could suffer another comprehensive defeat to a German heavyweight this week.
Man City looked back to their brilliant best when they thrashed Ipswich 6-0 on Sunday. Pep Guardiola’s men have picked up four wins and a draw in their last five games, and they appear to have turned a corner following a dismal run of results in November and December. They have only won two of their six Champions League games this season, and their chances of reaching the knockout stage are in jeopardy. City desperately need to beat PSG on Wednesday, and they could get the better of Luis Enrique’s inexperienced team.
Liverpool should make short work of Lille when the teams clash at Anfield. The Reds are top of the Champions League table, with six wins from six games so far. They have scored 13 goals and conceded just once in that time. Victory in this game would ensure automatic qualification for the Round of 16, so the players should be highly motivated. Lille have impressed in the Champions League this season, with four wins from six games, but they could be outclassed at Anfield.
PSV Eindhoven will aim to capitalize on Red Star Belgrade’s defensive frailties when the teams meet in Serbia this week. Red Star have conceded 19 goals in six Champions League matches so far, which equates to 3.17 goals per game. They have lost five out of six matches, and their chances of reaching the knockout stage are slim. By contrast, PSV are currently on course to make the next stage, but they cannot afford to drop points in Belgrade. They will be highly motivated, and they look capable of securing a narrow win.
This should prove to be an entertaining game. Bologna’s forwards are in excellent form right now, but the defense has been struggling. Over 2.5 goals has paid off in each of their last four games – a 3-2 defeat to Verona, a 2-2 draw with Roma, another 2-2 draw with Inter Milan, and then a 3-1 victory over Monza on Saturday. Five of Dortmund’s last six games have seen over 2.5 goals, and their defense is leaking goals. They haven’t kept a clean sheet since November, but they also boast several talented forwards.
Borussia Dortmund are currently fourth in the Champions League table, with four wins and one defeat in five games. They won both of their home games in convincing fashion, so they should be highly competitive when they host Barcelona. Barça are level on points with Dortmund, but their away record is not overly impressive: one win and one loss in two road trips so far. They have won just two of their last six games in all competitions, and they may view a draw as a good result in this game, so backing Dortmund +0.5 looks appealing.
Slovan Bratislava look out of their depth in the Champions League. The Slovak champions have lost all five games so far, scoring just four goals and conceding 18. That leaves them with a -14 goal difference. They lost 5-1 to Celtic, 4-0 to Manchester City and 4-1 at home to Dinamo Zagreb, which does not augur well for their chances against a rampant Atlético Madrid team. Atlético have banged in 18 goals in their last four matches, including a 6-0 win against Sparta Prague in their last Champions League game, so they could run riot here.
This has been a disastrous Champions League campaign for RB Leipzig, who have lost all five games so far. They have scored four goals and conceded 10, so their games have seen an average of 2.8 goals. However, over the past two weeks, Leipzig beat Eintracht Frankfurt (3-0) and Holstein Kiel (2-0). Aston Villa have been solid on defense so far, however, they have not kept a single clean sheet in seven away games in the Premier League this season. Over 2.5 goals looks appealing.
Girona slipped down to ninth in La Liga after suffering a 3-0 home defeat to Real Madrid last weekend. They are winless in their last four games, which does not bode well for their chances of beating an in-form Liverpool team on Tuesday. Liverpool were due to face local rivals Everton last weekend, but the game was postponed due to a storm. That means the players will be fresh and raring to go by the time they arrive in Catalonia for this game, and they could overrun Girona.
Real Madrid will aim to secure a third consecutive win when they take on Liverpool at Anfield this week. Los Blancos were firing on all cylinders when they beat Leganes 3-0 on Sunday. Star players Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham all looked sharp, which bodes well for Real Madrid’s chances of getting a result against Liverpool. Los Blancos are the clear underdogs for this game, but they have the quality to cause problems for a Liverpool defense that conceded twice against struggling Southampton at the weekend. Real Madrid could leave Merseyside with a point.
This could prove to be a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has paid off in each of Juventus’ last four games, as the Bianconeri are solid defensively, but they lack dynamism in attack. Their last two Champions League matches also went Under 2.5 goals: a 1-0 defeat to Stuttgart and a 1-1 draw with Lille. Aston Villa’s Champions League games have seen an average of just 1.75 goals so far this season, so Under 2.5 goals looks like an appealing bet in this game.
Arsenal looked back to their brilliant best when they beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 at the weekend. Captain Martin Ødegaard is back in the team after recovering from an injury that kept him sidelined for two months, and his creativity has proved transformative. Now the Gunners face a stern test of their mettle when they face Sporting Lisbon in the Portuguese capital. However, Sporting may be a little unmoored after manager Ruben Amorim left for Manchester United, and this revitalized Arsenal team could capitalize.
Bayer Leverkusen should be too strong for RB Salzburg when the teams meet at BayArena on Tuesday. Xabi Alonso’s men will have the wind in their sails after thumping Heidenheim 5-2 at the weekend. They are currently on course to qualify for the knockout stage of the Champions League, but they cannot afford to drop points in this game. Salzburg have lost three out of four Champions League games so far. They are also having a poor season in the Austrian Bundesliga and could be outclassed in this game.
This could prove to be a tight, low-scoring game between two evenly matched teams. Inter Milan have not conceded a goal in three Champions League games this season. The Nerazzurri held Manchester City to a 0-0 draw at the San Siro, before beating Red Star Belgrade 4-0 and Young Boys 1-0. Arsenal also boast a perfect defensive record after drawing 0-0 with Atalanta, beating PSG 2-0 and then scraping a 1-0 win against Shakhtar Donetsk. The Gunners are missing playmaker Martin Ødegaard, and they could struggle to create chances, so under 2.5 goals looks appealing.