Jon's Past Picks
I'm our resident Bundesliga supporter and literally have the Bayern Munich crest tattooed on my leg. With that being said, I do not feel confident in my squad right now. VIncent Kompany's team looked incredible… for about two months. They're consistently coming into matches as massive favorites and barely putting together sloppy and broken victories. The Bavarian giants will be looking for a big bounce-back victory, and as almost -700 favorites you would think that would happen. I just don’t trust them. Shakhtar are tough at home and I believe they'll find the scoresheet. While I do think Bayern Munich will win, a 2.5-goal spread is brutal for a team that will be missing its best scorer, Harry Kane.
I think this Over could be covered by PSV by themselves. Look to play things like PSV Over 1.5 TT as well, because I believe with all my heart that Stade Brest’s incredible start to the UCL is going to come to an abrupt halt. PSV have been on a rampage, both domestically and in their recent UCL fixtures. They beat Girona 4-0 and Shakhtar 3-2 in UCL, while beating Utrecht 5-2, Groningen 5-0, and Twente 6-1, all in their last five matches. This team doesn’t know how to slow down, and even if Stade Brest doesn’t contribute to the goal count, I like this Over just as much.
Stade Brest were a team that started off this competition in amazing form, but were exposed by Barcelona in the last matchday. Stade Brest is a team that historically struggles against Dutch sides, which will work perfectly for a PSV side that hasn’t lost against French sides in years. PSV has started off slow, but have way too much attack for a Brest side that prefers a more defensive approach. PSV, with American talent Ricardo Pepi, did well to pull a 1-1 draw against PSG (the best French side) already this season, and I’m expecting them to take all three points against Brest in France.
Sporting are in crisis mode right now. Their manager took the call and moved to Manchester to coach the Red Devils, and since he left Sporting have lost three matches in a row. While the team still possess all the same talent that they dominated with, they’re just going through some growing pains, and a defensively weak Brugge side will be the perfect opponent for Viktor Gyokeres and Sporting to find their groove once again. These are two teams with tremendous goal-scoring talent, two teams that need three points, and two teams going for goals. I love Over 2.5 here and don’t hate Over 3.5 as well.
If the Over is too juicy for you, I’d consider taking the Sporting money line. This is a nice plus odds number for everyone who doesn’t mind a bit more risk. I’m aware that Sporting are in a rut right now since manager Ruben Amorim left to manage Manchester United, but this team just has so much talent. Most noticeably the striker and leader Viktor Gyokeres (ATGS +100), but also they have Francisco Trincao and Daniel Braganca to back him up. I’m expecting a bounce-back game here for the visitors.
This is going to be a massively controversial play, but I’m sticking to my guns here! Atalanta should not be underdogs at home against anyone right now. Atalanta are currently top of the Serie A table, while also being one of the only three teams who are yet to lose a match in Champions League this season. They have Charles De Ketelaere, Ademola Lookman, Mateo Retegui, and more. This is a team that is unstoppable, and even against the “Kings of Champions League,” Real Madrid, I expect the hosts to persevere and get all three points. Real Madrid are struggling massively right now, and while I think they’ll turn things around eventually, they'll need to wait another week to do that.
Frankly I think this match ends in a draw. Inter are one of the three clubs, along with Liverpool and Atalanta, who have not lost a match yet. They are also the only club that hasn’t conceded in UCL. That’s right, they've scored seven goals in their five matches and haven’t conceded a single time. While Leverkusen are a good side, especially when playing at home, this is one of those classic matchups where neither side would be upset walking away with a point. Both clubs are in the top eight and will do anything to prevent dropping points. Leverkusen have not lost in their last six matches across all competitions, while Inter haven’t lost in their last 13. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match.
I know this is a juicy line and definitely is not for everyone, but I would consider using this as a parlay piece if you don’t want to take it as a straight bet. Liverpool ML, even at -225, is something I don’t mind playing considering how much of an absolute rampage Arne Slot and the Reds are on. This is the club that is not only atop the table in UCL play, but also is leading the English Premier League. They boast one of the best offenses, one of the best defenses, and are hands down the best road team in Europe right now. I expect Liverpool not only to win, but by multiple goals in this fixture.
Dinamo Zagreb and Celtic both find themselves in peculiar positions entering Matchday 6 of Champions League play. Both teams are currently in play-off positions, but are nowhere near safe enough to slow down if they want to remain there. Dimano having seven points and Celtic having eight means that I'm expecting the same thing we've seen from both sides all competition -- goals. Celtic matches are averaging four goals in UCL play, while Dinamo matches are averaging five. There's no reason to take anything other than the Over in this fixture!
There are very few certainties in life. Death and taxes come to mind, and close behind are goals at Celtic Park. The environment created by supporters and the players alike make forward-facing football the only way to play. Looking at their UCL matches so far, Celtic have scored a tremendous nine goals, averaging over two per match, while conceding the same amount. While Club Brugge would like to keep this game close, they’re not in a position where they can sit back. Both sides will be out for three points, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Over 2.5 goals is covered by the hosts alone.
There are very few things scarier than Celtic at home. They’ve played two home matches so far in this competition and outscored their opponents 8-2 in the process. They defeated Slovan Bratislava 5-1, which wasn’t the biggest shock in the world, but their dismantling of RB Leipzig 3-1 was a bit more of a shock. Celtic have too many powerful strikers at their disposal. Callum McGregor, Kyogo Furuhashi, Nicolas-Gerrit Kuhn, Alistair Johnstone and more will be looking to make a big impression as they take on Club Brugge, which has a worse defense than the Leipzig side that already took a beating. I’m expecting goals in this match, but specifically, more goals from Celtic. This is too good to pass up at plus odds.
Sturm Graz are currently first in the Austrian Bundesliga and are almost last in Champions League. They are one of the five clubs yet to pick up a single point going into the fifth matchday. They’ve been struggling with split focus, injuries, and a non-existent attack in European competition. While Girona haven’t been doing well in this competition, they are at least fixing things after the international break and finally seeing their litany of injured players start to return. I’m expecting the better LaLiga side to fight like mad to pick up three points and do just that. It might not be a clean win, but the visitors should escape with three points and a second victory.
Red Star are one of those clubs you want to stay away from when they're on the road. However, when they play at home, they're a completely different team and come alive to produce goals for their home fans. They don’t always win, but the rate at which they score at home is absolutely absurd, and we’ve seen them already show that by scoring twice against Barcleona at home. While Stuttgart isn’t necessarily the most dangerous attacking side, they don’t need to be to score against Belgrade. I’m expecting goals from both sides, with the Over clearing 2.5, and possibly even 3.5 or 4.5
Why do the sportsbooks continue to disrespect Sporting? I feel like the line for Sporting has been wrong all season. This is the same Sporting that dismantled Manchester City 4-1 last matchday. This is also the same Sporting that have the most prolific goalscorer in the world right now, Viktor Gyokeres. I know that Arsenal are capable of doing some serious damage, however, the Gunners have been grinding games to a crawl, playing for low-scoring and cagey affairs, and I just don’t believe Sporting will let that happen.
There are many teams currently defying expectations so far in Champions League, but no club is doing it quite to the degree that Ligue 1 side Stade Brest are. Brest are fourth on the table and are one of only six teams that have not tasted defeat entering the fifth matchday. They are flying high with confidence, however, they have not played a team with near the ferocity or devastating attack of Barcelona. Barcelona have been rampaging through the UCL and their last couple matches have been high-scoring. A 4-1 defeat over Bayern Munich and a 5-2 win over Red Star show that this team goes for goals and doesn’t prioritize defense under manager Hansi Flick. I expect goals from both sides.