Jon's Past Picks
There are 36 teams participating in the Champions League this season, and out of all these teams, there is one that has been frustratingly good at defense: Inter Milan. Inter have played seven matches, and are the only team that has seen less than 10 combined goals in those matches. With eight goals scored and only a single goal conceded, this is a team that thrives in physically frustrating and breaking down their opponents. Monaco struggles on the road, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this match not only go under 2.5 goals, but 1.5 goals as well, with neither team wanting to drop points.
RB Salzburg has been one of, if not the most embarrassing team in Champions League play this season. This is an Austrian staple in European competitions, and they've turned into the punching bag of all teams. They have the second most goals conceded, being outscored four goals to 23. They have nothing to play for, meanwhile Atletico Madrid will be going for all three points on the road. This over 2.5 goals could and should be covered by Atletico Madrid themselves, as they are one of the more dominant offensive teams in this competition.
There are currently only two match days left for the group stage of Champions League. There are only three points separating third on the table Arsenal from 19th on the table Club Brugge. This means any team between those spots will be fighting like mad to finish in the top eight. Aston Villa and Monaco fall in this category. Monaco have been struggling defensively both in league play and UCL. A well-managed and fierce attacking Aston Villa side will look to strike on the road. Aston Villa are coming off a 2-2 draw against Arsenal and are unbeaten in their last five. They'll look to take three points off a Monaco side that has been limping through league play in the last month.
I'm our resident Bundesliga supporter and literally have the Bayern Munich crest tattooed on my leg. With that being said, I do not feel confident in my squad right now. VIncent Kompany's team looked incredible… for about two months. They're consistently coming into matches as massive favorites and barely putting together sloppy and broken victories. The Bavarian giants will be looking for a big bounce-back victory, and as almost -700 favorites you would think that would happen. I just don’t trust them. Shakhtar are tough at home and I believe they'll find the scoresheet. While I do think Bayern Munich will win, a 2.5-goal spread is brutal for a team that will be missing its best scorer, Harry Kane.
I think this Over could be covered by PSV by themselves. Look to play things like PSV Over 1.5 TT as well, because I believe with all my heart that Stade Brest’s incredible start to the UCL is going to come to an abrupt halt. PSV have been on a rampage, both domestically and in their recent UCL fixtures. They beat Girona 4-0 and Shakhtar 3-2 in UCL, while beating Utrecht 5-2, Groningen 5-0, and Twente 6-1, all in their last five matches. This team doesn’t know how to slow down, and even if Stade Brest doesn’t contribute to the goal count, I like this Over just as much.
Stade Brest were a team that started off this competition in amazing form, but were exposed by Barcelona in the last matchday. Stade Brest is a team that historically struggles against Dutch sides, which will work perfectly for a PSV side that hasn’t lost against French sides in years. PSV has started off slow, but have way too much attack for a Brest side that prefers a more defensive approach. PSV, with American talent Ricardo Pepi, did well to pull a 1-1 draw against PSG (the best French side) already this season, and I’m expecting them to take all three points against Brest in France.
Sporting are in crisis mode right now. Their manager took the call and moved to Manchester to coach the Red Devils, and since he left Sporting have lost three matches in a row. While the team still possess all the same talent that they dominated with, they’re just going through some growing pains, and a defensively weak Brugge side will be the perfect opponent for Viktor Gyokeres and Sporting to find their groove once again. These are two teams with tremendous goal-scoring talent, two teams that need three points, and two teams going for goals. I love Over 2.5 here and don’t hate Over 3.5 as well.
If the Over is too juicy for you, I’d consider taking the Sporting money line. This is a nice plus odds number for everyone who doesn’t mind a bit more risk. I’m aware that Sporting are in a rut right now since manager Ruben Amorim left to manage Manchester United, but this team just has so much talent. Most noticeably the striker and leader Viktor Gyokeres (ATGS +100), but also they have Francisco Trincao and Daniel Braganca to back him up. I’m expecting a bounce-back game here for the visitors.
This is going to be a massively controversial play, but I’m sticking to my guns here! Atalanta should not be underdogs at home against anyone right now. Atalanta are currently top of the Serie A table, while also being one of the only three teams who are yet to lose a match in Champions League this season. They have Charles De Ketelaere, Ademola Lookman, Mateo Retegui, and more. This is a team that is unstoppable, and even against the “Kings of Champions League,” Real Madrid, I expect the hosts to persevere and get all three points. Real Madrid are struggling massively right now, and while I think they’ll turn things around eventually, they'll need to wait another week to do that.
Frankly I think this match ends in a draw. Inter are one of the three clubs, along with Liverpool and Atalanta, who have not lost a match yet. They are also the only club that hasn’t conceded in UCL. That’s right, they've scored seven goals in their five matches and haven’t conceded a single time. While Leverkusen are a good side, especially when playing at home, this is one of those classic matchups where neither side would be upset walking away with a point. Both clubs are in the top eight and will do anything to prevent dropping points. Leverkusen have not lost in their last six matches across all competitions, while Inter haven’t lost in their last 13. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match.
I know this is a juicy line and definitely is not for everyone, but I would consider using this as a parlay piece if you don’t want to take it as a straight bet. Liverpool ML, even at -225, is something I don’t mind playing considering how much of an absolute rampage Arne Slot and the Reds are on. This is the club that is not only atop the table in UCL play, but also is leading the English Premier League. They boast one of the best offenses, one of the best defenses, and are hands down the best road team in Europe right now. I expect Liverpool not only to win, but by multiple goals in this fixture.
Dinamo Zagreb and Celtic both find themselves in peculiar positions entering Matchday 6 of Champions League play. Both teams are currently in play-off positions, but are nowhere near safe enough to slow down if they want to remain there. Dimano having seven points and Celtic having eight means that I'm expecting the same thing we've seen from both sides all competition -- goals. Celtic matches are averaging four goals in UCL play, while Dinamo matches are averaging five. There's no reason to take anything other than the Over in this fixture!
There are very few certainties in life. Death and taxes come to mind, and close behind are goals at Celtic Park. The environment created by supporters and the players alike make forward-facing football the only way to play. Looking at their UCL matches so far, Celtic have scored a tremendous nine goals, averaging over two per match, while conceding the same amount. While Club Brugge would like to keep this game close, they’re not in a position where they can sit back. Both sides will be out for three points, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Over 2.5 goals is covered by the hosts alone.
There are very few things scarier than Celtic at home. They’ve played two home matches so far in this competition and outscored their opponents 8-2 in the process. They defeated Slovan Bratislava 5-1, which wasn’t the biggest shock in the world, but their dismantling of RB Leipzig 3-1 was a bit more of a shock. Celtic have too many powerful strikers at their disposal. Callum McGregor, Kyogo Furuhashi, Nicolas-Gerrit Kuhn, Alistair Johnstone and more will be looking to make a big impression as they take on Club Brugge, which has a worse defense than the Leipzig side that already took a beating. I’m expecting goals in this match, but specifically, more goals from Celtic. This is too good to pass up at plus odds.
Sturm Graz are currently first in the Austrian Bundesliga and are almost last in Champions League. They are one of the five clubs yet to pick up a single point going into the fifth matchday. They’ve been struggling with split focus, injuries, and a non-existent attack in European competition. While Girona haven’t been doing well in this competition, they are at least fixing things after the international break and finally seeing their litany of injured players start to return. I’m expecting the better LaLiga side to fight like mad to pick up three points and do just that. It might not be a clean win, but the visitors should escape with three points and a second victory.