Atlanta
Falcons
ATL
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-2
ATS2-2
O/U2-2-0
FINAL SCORE
45
-
24
New Orleans
Saints
NO
Last 5 ATS
W/L1-3
ATS2-2
O/U3-1-0
Last 5 ATS
2-2
Win /Loss
1-3
2-2
Spread
2-2
2-2-0
Over / Under
3-1-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Shepherd (illness) is now questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
The Saints elevated Tillman from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Smith (concussion/neck) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.
Godchaux (groin) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Fant (abdomen) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Vikings.
Matthews (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
Wright (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Abdullah (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
Jennings (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Smith (concussion/neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.
The Michael Penix-Drake London connection is back and we are here for it. In 13 games in which Penix started, London averages 7.0 receptions and 104.3 yards per game on 11 targets per game. He had 9-194 on 10 targets last week at Green Bay. In the 19 games he has played without Penix, it's 5.2 receptions, 63.6 yards per game on 8 targets a game.
The Falcons have proven to be an elite run defense so far, and the Saints are missing their top running back. Look for a pass-heavy game script from New Orleans and go Over on Tyler Shough’s pass attempts.
The Falcons and Saints have stayed under the total in their last three meetings, but I don't think that’ll be the case tonight. New Orleans has a quarterback in Tyler Shough, but we just found out last week that Atlanta has a quarterback that we may have overlooked: Michael Penix Jr., who beat the Packers in Green Bay 35-14. He actually looked pretty good for a guy who's been out almost a year. The Falcons had a balanced offense with 242 yards rushing along with 256 yards passing. The Saints are celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Falcons meeting the Saints after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. I'd be happy with a bet on either side, but what I like the most is the over.
Bijan Robinson has cleared this number just once this season, but the context is different now. With Michael Penix under center, defenses can't stack the box against Robinson like they did early on. The Saints' run defense has been a mess. They rank 30th in EPA per rush allowed (+0.05) and dead last in rushing success rate allowed, with opponents succeeding on 52% of their carries. They're also giving up big chunks on the ground. Robinson is coming off a 194-yard performance, and one 30-plus-yard run gets him most of the way there.
Atlanta's run D is legit, and the Saints haven't been able to run on anyone. That means Shough must answer the bell. The Falcons have given up plenty through the air. Bryce Young threw for 287 yards against them, and Jordan Love followed with 312. To be fair, some of Love's yards came late with Atlanta in prevent. The concern is a Falcons pass rush that might be the league's best, and Shough hasn't been great under pressure. Still, when he's kept clean, he's one of the league's most efficient. This line feels close to the top end of my projections so the margin for error is slim. However, with no running game to lean on, 300-plus is a real possibility.
The Saints head into this one without Travis Etienne at RB, and that should in theory pave the way for a throwback game from Kamara. I'm skeptical, given that Kamara is 31 and has dealt with injuries himself this season. Can he really handle double-digit carries? Even if he does, it's no guarantee he gets over this number, as the Falcons have the No. 1 defense in yards per rush this year, holding the Packers to 17 rushing yards last week. We could also see Kamara deployed more in the passing game while Kendre Miller is leaned on as a ball-carrier. I like fading Kamara in this prop as I see multiple scenarios where it cashes, from injury potential to defensive matchup to timeshare concerns.
DraftKings. Dating back to last season, Mike Hughes has cleared this line in nine of his last ten full games. As a cornerback, this is a solid spot for him to rack up the tackles against a pass-happy Saints offense. New Orleans has the sixth highest pass play percentage (64%), a mark that could go up as they’re without running back Travis Etienne. And their passing game is centered around wide-outs Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele, who command a combined 44% target share. I have Hughes notching six combined stops tonight.
Davaughn Vele's role in the offense has also been very steady and he’s a full time player in an offense that is dropping back a ton. This lends itself to a matchup against a Falcons defense that’s profiling as a major pass funnel. The Saints have the second fastest situation neutral pace. They are also the third-fastest team with a lead so I expect plenty of dropbacks, especially when considering the Saints RB depth chart, coupled with how their opponents are going out of their way to avoid it. All three Falcons opponents have posted an above-average pass rate with at least a 4% PROE. Look for Vele to handle 5-8 targets in a game that could feature plenty of passing volume.
The Saints are down three key members of their front seven, including defensive signal caller Kaden Elliss. His backup, LB Pete Werner, is questionable after not practicing all week due to a shoulder injury. It doesn't bode well for a Saints team giving up 4.7 yards per carry (26th). Bijan Robinson had 10 days off since exploding at Green Bay, and I like him to run wild again Monday night.
DraftKings. Drake London is fresh off a nine reception game (10 targets) - his first outing this season with competent quarterback play. In fact, he’s cleared this line in 10/15 career games he’s played with Michael Penix Jr. Between Bijan Robinson and maybe Kyle Pitts, this Falcons offense is incredibly lean in terms of ball distribution. And the matchup is great, as the Saints are ill-equipped to defend London. New Orleans is allowing 14 catches per game to opposing first reads (seventh most). London should feast against the Saints perimeter cornerbacks who both run five inches shorter than the 6’4’’ receiver.
Atlanta played in Week 3 like I thought the New Orleans would and vice versa. The Falcons absolutely dominated Green Bay, while the Saints gagged away their home opener against the Raiders. Though they have injury concerns, including two significant offensive weapons in Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson, I was confident enough to pick the Saints to win the weak NFC South Division at the start of the year. Tyler Shough has accounted for nine total touchdowns this season for New Orleans and I think he adds three more in a high-scoring victory. Don't underestimate the raucous home crowd either. New Orleans 31, Atlanta 26.
The Falcons offense got back on track with Michael Penix last week, and with several Saints defenders injured, I can see why this line is coming down. I still want to be on the Saints, a team that has been competitive in three straight games against teams that are a combined 7-2. Tyler Shough has largely been up to the challenge in those shootouts, while the Falcons defense has gotten to play two flawed offenses in the Steelers and Packers, plus a Panthers offense that dominated from the jump. In this Katrina anniversary game, the crowd should be electric backing the home team, and in a projected close contest, that could be the edge.
Bijan Robinson has had a long rest after a massive game on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. And now he gets another great matchup on Monday night against the Saints. Nearly 60% of Robinson's rushes are outside zone runs. Per Sharp Football, against outside zone runs, the Saints have allowed 5 yards per carry and are last in success rate against outside zone runs. Robinson has cleared this longest rush prop in two of three games to start the season. Another explosive running back, Jahmyr Gibbs, cleared this longest rush prop against the Saints in Week 1. Longest rush is always a fun sweat, and one that I believe we'll get home Monday night.
It's mighty early in the season for the Saints' defense to be ravaged by injuries. Not good timing when facing peerless RB Bijan Robinson, who lights up when playing under the lights. Robinson boasts three prime-time games in which he has exceeded 200 yards from scrimmage. New Orleans is permitting a generous 4.7 yards per carry. Scratched are edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings, plus LB Kaden Elliss. A fourth starter, LB Pete Werner, might join them in absentia. Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. was sharp in his season opener last Thursday. His team is blessed with additional days to get ready for this game.
DraftKings. Alvin Kamara will presumably take on a larger role in the absence of Travis Etienne, but I still see this as a very high line for the 31-year old. As a runner, Kamara is only managing 2.8 yards per carry, with a long of 11 yards. The Falcons defense not only allows a league best 2.75 yards per carry, but also. 1.9% explosive run rate (thanks to the newly extended Gervon Dexter Jr.). And the Falcons defense limits running backs in the passing game with their single-high, cover 3 scheme. Kamara will split work with Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson as is - Tyler Shough is not as nearly reliant on checkdowns as Saints QBs of the past. Bet this down to under 54.5.
The Saints will be without Travis Etienne: Alvin Kamara is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. That will make things easier on a Falcons defense that has surprisingly generated pressure despite losing their top two edge rushers before the season. Atlanta is a completely different offense with Michael Penix starting instead of Cooper Rush. Grab the full field goal before it disappears.
