Green Bay
Packers
GB
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-2
ATS1-3
O/U2-2-0
FINAL SCORE
22
-
39
Minnesota
Vikings
MIN
Last 5 ATS
W/L4-0
ATS3-1
O/U1-3-0
Last 5 ATS
2-2
Win /Loss
4-0
1-3
Spread
3-1
2-2-0
Over / Under
1-3-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Jones carried the ball 20 times for 94 yards and caught four of eight targets for 34 yards in Sunday's 15-10 win over the Dolphins.
Lloyd rushed seven times for 13 yards and brought in all five targets for 36 yards in the Packers' 17-14 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Golden brought in three of seven targets for 21 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 17-14 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday. He also rushed once for six yards.
Love completed 22 of 30 passes for 197 yards with two touchdowns and one interception and rushed four times for minus-8 yards in the Packers' 17-14 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Darrisaw (head) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against Miami.
Kraft brought in six of seven targets for 42 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 17-14 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday. He also rushed once for three yards.
Darrisaw (neck) has returned to Sunday's matchup with Miami, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports.
Watson secured all three targets for 47 yards in the Packers' 17-14 win over the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Darrisaw (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against Miami.
Jackson (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's contest against the Dolphins.
The Green Bay Packers have been well known for their in house development via the draft. Matthew Golden ended last year with a showcase playoff performance against the Bears. He had 84 yards with a touchdown, and we saw the Packers move on from Doubbs and Wicks. As stingy as the Vikings defense can be look for one deep ball to Golden to break his yardage prop in week one.
The Packers are going to improve as the season progresses, but in Week 1, there are too many questions. Kyler Murray is a serviceable quarterback that provides Kevin O’Connell with an additional rushing threat, and the star wide receivers are fully healthy at home with some intriguing supplemental rushing options. There is some concern with new Green Bay defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon knowing how to attack Murray, Brian Flores on the other side should give Jordan Love & Co. plenty of problems. This is a small price for the more composed team entering the season with fewer issues.
Caesar’s. With Josh Jacobs landing on the commissioner’s exempt list, MarShawn Lloyd will earn his long awaited NFL look. The 2024 third-round pick has exactly seven NFL touches to his name having missed almost all his service time due to injury. The Packers have hinted at a committee approach, and with the trade for Kaleb Johnson – I just don’t see Lloyd getting high-volume touches out of the gate, given his history. Minnesota not only ranked within the top nine of FTN’s DVOA metric against the run and running backs in the passing game last season, but they also had the fifth lowest explosive run percentage allowed (and fourth in 2024). Given the brutal matchup, I have Lloyd projected around 52 combined yards.
Kyler Murray is a significant upgrade at quarterback for the Vikings. The home-field advantage should be enough to help this defense put the offense in a position to succeed. This price point is right on my fair value number at 55%, but this is one I’m comfortable leaning into.
The Green Bay Packers have been a big time run funnel the past few seasons and I don’t expect that to change in Week 1 against Kyler Murray making his first start under center for the Vikings. Murray has averaged significantly fewer pass attempts in wins versus losses both throughout his career, as well over his last 20 starts. I expect HC Kevin O’Connell to call a somewhat conservative gameplan as Kyler Murray has reportedly been inconsistent through the offseason. I do not expect an aggressive gameplan for Murray and Minnesota’s passing offense and in a game that projects to be competitive, I don’t think Murray will have heavy exposure in the majority of game environments.
Yes, the Packers made the postseason last year and the Vikings didn't. But entering Wild Card weekend, if you asked me which team I'd rather have, it would've been the Vikings, who ended the year with 5 straight wins, while the Packers limped in with four straight losses and then promptly lost to the Bears in the WC round. Now fast-forward to 2026 and I am not sure anything has changed other than the Vikings getting Kyler Murray and the Packers losing Josh Jacobs for the beginning of the year. It's Week 1 and I think the Vikings are the better team and are in better shape entering the opening contest.
This line has flipped over the summer to the Vikings being favored, thanks to Kyler Murray being named QB and Josh Jacobs becoming sidelined indefinitely. This was always going to be a tough matchup for the Green Bay offense against Brian Flores' unit, which has benefited from muffed punts and short fields in recent games against Minnesota but has otherwise not looked great. With a new left tackle in place, the Packers' offense should struggle on the road here.
A scoreless draw between these Bears rivals would be nice, but the Packers already are kinda thin without Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs. Top tight end Tucker Kraft says he will play but how much off a major injury? And he's unhappy about his contract. Not making this play, though, if it was JJ McCarthy still as the Minny starter under center, but Kyler Murray should be a pretty substantial upgrade. Just get the ball plenty to Justin Jefferson, and we should be good.
I trust Kevin O’Connell to design an offense around Kyler Murray’s strengths. While Murray’s acquisition dominated offseason coverage, Minnesota made a defensive move that could prove almost as important, signing James Pierre. The former Steeler graded out last season as the NFL’s top cover corner, per PFF. The Packers could get off to a slow start until their offensive line comes together and Micah Parsons returns.
With Josh Jacobs out indefinitely, the Packers offense may need to rely more on the passing game. However, that's bad news for this matchup against a Vikings defense that should attack new left tackle Jordan Morgan relentlessly in this game. With Jeff Hafley moving on and Micah Parsons sidelined, the Packers defense also faces a tough test trying to slow down a Vikings offense that gained Kyler Murray this offseason and has Christian Darrisaw back to full health. The Vikings are the better team here and this line should be 3.
The Vikings will play their first Week 1 home game in three years, and U.S. Bank Stadium is a tough place for any team to start the season. Minnesota has won seven of its last ten Week 1 home games. Right now, the Vikings have an advantage on both the offensive and defensive lines. Backing defensive coordinator Brian Flores with extra time to scheme creative blitz packages seems right. Minnesota is favored by 1.5 points at most sportsbooks. Since 2000, home favorites in Week 1 who face teams that finished above .500 or made the playoffs the year before are 50-30-5 ATS. Since the Vikings are underdogs at MGM, I have to mention that Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 24-6 ATS since 2009.
