Little went 3-for-3 on field-goal tries and his only PAT during Sunday's 22-17 win over the Bengals.
Thomas secured both targets for 17 yards and a touchdown in the Jaguars' 22-17 win over the Bengals on Sunday.
Washington secured one of three targets for seven yards, rushed once for three yards and returned one punt for three yards in the Jaguars' 22-17 win over the Bengals on Sunday.
Lawrence completed 18 of 23 passes for 227 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions while adding three carries for no gain in the Jaguars' 22-17 win over the Bengals on Sunday.
Tuten rushed 17 times for 73 yards and brought in both targets for 18 yards in the Jaguars' 22-17 win over the Bengals on Sunday.
Murray (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Bengals, Demetrius Harvey of The Florida Times-Union reports.
Ransaw (knee) is questionable to return to Sunday's clash against Cincinnati.
Regis (elbow) is active against the Bengals on Sunday.
Braswell (knee) is inactive against the Bengals on Sunday.
Brown (hamstring) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Bengals.
Another uncomfortable click incoming, and full disclosure here: while I have this at 7.5 in the simulations, my motivation here is significantly more tied to my survivor portfolio, which is substantial in terms of buy-in ($10K+). This is sort of a pseudo-hedge against a relatively large Week 1 position on Jacksonville in contests. If you’re looking to just play a single game, this could be one to skip. I’m always looking at everything I do as a portfolio across all of my DFS exposure, contests, etc. GL!
The Cleveland Browns made the questionable decision to start the year with DeShaun Watson as the starting quarterback. The caliber of quarterback we saw years ago with Houston is no more, as he has made just thirteen starts over the prior three seasons. Ironically his only win as a starter since 2024 was on the road at Jacksonville, in an 18 to 13 win. Not calling for an outright win but Jacksonville has had issues scoring in the second half of week one games the prior two seasons. In 2024 they were shutout in the second half against Miami, and last season scored just six second half points against Carolina. Playing the big number here on the Browns side.
I strongly considered the under on Trevor Lawrence's pass attempts but pivoted to this because Cleveland's defensive backs are still good enough to make some plays on the ball and erase some completions. Lawrence was under this total in 10 of the 17 games he didn't leave early last season, and of the 10, eight were wins. The Browns new coaching staff figures to install a defensive scheme that should still be able to get pressure on the quarterback with those quality corners behind them, but it's the Cleveland offense that might not keep up its end of the bargain and ultimately put the defense in bad spots, leaving the Jaguars with the ability to stay balanced offensively.
The Jaguars had the top rush defense in the NFL last year, holding teams to 85.6 yards per game. I faded RBs on a weekly basis against them and with the terrible QB situation in Cleveland, I expect them to stack the box against Judkins and make Watson beat them. Not to mention the Browns rushed for 97 yards a game last year, 27th in the NFL. Judkins only hit this mark twice over the last eight games last season, against much worse rush defenses and this will be a negative game script in the second half.
DraftKings. Chris Rodriguez was brought to Jacksonville this offseason to complement second-year speedster Bhayshul Tuten in the backfield. With both listed atop the depth chart, Rodriguez’s early season role is to handle short-yardage and goal-line work, making this attempts prop appealing. Jaguars coach Liam Coen, who coached Rodriguez at Kentucky, has lamented the Jaguars struggles with yards after contact, a metric Rodriguez excelled in last season. With the emphasis being on a committee approach this season, the Jags seem poised to split the 22 RB totes per game they averaged last season more evenly. Against the Browns, I expect the Jags to win the time of possession battle, and to remain in a positive gamescript throughout.
I expect a bounceback season for Brian Thomas Jr., and I believe it starts Week 1. Thomas was playing through injuries last season, in a disappointing year. He's now fully recovered from those injuries. And beat reporters this summer said Thomas looks back to his 2024 self. I know the receiver room is crowded in Jacksonville. Thomas doesn't even need to get back to his 2024 form to soar past this line. He could exceed this in one or two catches. Even in a "down" year in 2025, Thomas went over this line 11 times. I expect him to fly past this line to kickoff the 2026 season.
Even I could come up with a gameplan for Jacksonville's defense this week. Stack the box to slow Cleveland's rushing attack and at the same time, make Deshaun Watson beat them (which he won't) with a young receiving core. Running behind a subpar offensive line on paper, Quinshon Judkins won't be the beneficiary this week. Last year, Judkins had the fourth fewest yards before contact per attempt. With game flow likely to work against him, I have a hard time seeing Judkins get more than 15 carries on Sunday, so getting to 60 yards seems like a stretch behind that offensive line.
Parker Washington is set for a big role and is likely to function as Trevor Lawrence’s top target. The former 6th round pick is a slot receiver which is an extremely valuable role in Liam Cohens high powered offense. I expect this prop likely to settle between 65.5-69.5 by Week 3 so I’ll be happily playing anything in this range regardless of opponent. Look for Washington to have a strong Week 1 performance out of the gate.
A new Browns era begins with Myles Garrett dealt in the offseason, and Cleveland is a team I'm looking to fade early in the season as I think they're overvalued. I have no confidence in Deshaun Watson and think the young Cleveland receiver corps will take time to make an impact. On the other side of the ball, a Garrett-less defense with questions on the back end should have a tough time containing the Jaguars' diverse set of weapons in the passing game. I expect the Jags to build an early lead and I don't see the Browns as capable of back-dooring a cover. I'd make this line double digits.
