FanDuel. I highlighted the role reversal with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeon Henderson last week, with Stevenson usurping the rookie as the Patriots lead back, especially on passing downs. The rang true against the Chargers, with Stevenson on the field for 74% of passing snaps, notching three catches on four targets. Overall, Stevenson has now cleared this line in four of the last six games, and should be in line for target volume today. The Texans stingy defense allows the ninth highest target rate to the backfield (17%), and the fifth highest catch share (21%, per Fantasy Points). With the Texans high pressure rate, I expect Stevenson to remain the featured back on passing downs and any potential hurry up situations.

This is a low total with a chance of snow in this one. Both teams will lead with their defenses but each team has been shown that they can put up puts on above average defenses. Houston still got to 30 points despite three turnovers and averaging 29 points over their last five while the Patriots have averaged a little over 28 points all season long. This could be a lower scoring first half and then some offensive firepower down the stretch.

Welcome to the AFC Championship Game, one week early. With Bo Nix down and the defensive quality of the Patriots and Texans, it should be smooth sailing to the Super Bowl. However, this matchup will be anything but easy. Houston’s pass rush should have its way with New England. Unlike the Chargers, the Pats can spread the field and be multiple in the running game. With Nico Collins out and Christian Gonzalez back, the hosts should be even stronger defensively. That’s not to mention home-field advantage and outdoor success. C.J. Stroud’s implosion last week was concerning, but even if he tightens up, the Texans have limited weaponry. If trading punts all game, the Pats have the firepower to break through a bit more often.

Unders burned me in yesterday’s divisional round games, but I still feel they were the right plays despite the results. We saw the Patriots play to a low scoring 16-3 game agains the Chargers. The Texans-Steelers matchup also went under this 41 mark, in a game that was 7-6 entering the 4th quarter before Houston’s defensive TDs blew it open. The Texans will be without star WR1 Nico Collins, and the Patriots defensive line has been playing great ball with DE Milton Williams healthy again. 17-13 final score prediction.

I’m taking Drake Maye to go over on his rushing yards and rush attempts. Maye led all QBs in the NFL in scramble yards, and should be on the move against a Texans defensive front that ranked 3rd in pressure rate this season. As a result of that constant QB pressure, they also gave up the 4th most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs.

Drake Maye has used his wheels effectively all season, and continued to do so in the first round of the playoffs. Maye was under duress against the Chargers, and ran 10 times for 66 yards. He will now face the Texans vaunted pass rush, and will likely be forced to take off. Houston can get after the quarterback, but they were bottom 10 in the league defending against QB scrambles. Maye has 7+ rush attempts in 9 games this season. New England’s O-line surrendered 52 sacks, 4th most in the NFL. I expect Maye to trust his instincts, and look to alleviate Houston’s pressure with his own rushing attack. I like the over on Maye’s rush attempts and rushing yards props.

Very important to get the +3.5 here and not just a flat 3. We saw what the Chargers defense did to Drake Maye and New England and this defense is better. I also believe that many will remember what they saw last out of CJ Stroud and the Houston offense and overplay the loss of Nico Collins. If all of that is so awful, why is the line only a field goal? I believe the Texans offense will be far better than it was last week and the defense will be excellent. I definitely see them staying within the 3.5 and I do believe they have a good chance to win the game outright.

Drake Maye ripped off a 37-yard run last week, the fourth time in five games he has cleared this prop total. Now he's facing the NFL's scariest pass rush, which should force some scrambles. Since Week 13, Houston has allowed the ninth-most yards per attempt and fourth-highest EPA per carry on QB runs. When he faced NFL sack leader Myles Garrett and the Browns, Maye got loose for a 28-yard run.

DraftKings. Jayden Higgins is under this line in 10/17 games this season, including five of the last six. While Nico Collins won’t be suiting up, I’m not buying the inflated line in a brutal matchup. Higgins catch rate on throws with 15+ air yards, on 1.2 targets per game (CJ Stroud is at 38% overall). The Patriots allow 35% completions on 15+ air yards to receivers aligned out wide (since Christian Gonzalez’ season debut) - with only 17 completions over 14 games. Xavier Hutchinson will see deep targets, as will Christian Kirk who is coming off a massive game. So despite no Collins, I’ll be fading the rookie. I’d bet this line in a dome, let alone with the snow that’s expected.

The Texans' defense is truly scary, but it won't be as easy to stymie New England as it was Pittsburgh. Drake Maye is very elusive and the Pats' offense is far more imaginative. Maye went 11 of 14 for 173 yards and a touchdown in the second half of the Wild Card win. The Pats' defense looked healthy and stout in shutting down the Chargers. With Christian Gonzalez cleared, the Pats should be able to hold down a Houston attack missing Nico Collins.

No one doubts the Texans having enough defense to advance. Yet do they have enough offense? Open to debate even after the Wild Card win over the Steelers, a 7-6 game into the 4th Q before two Houston defensive TDs broke open the game. The offense bordered on disaster much of the night, especially QB CJ Stroud, who fumbled the ball five (five!) times and was fortunate to lose only two. Mike Vrabel's Patriots completely bottled the Chargers and Justin Herbert last Sunday, limiting the Bolts to 207 total yards. MVP candidate Drake Maye didn't have a big night, but did author a decisive 4th quarter TD drive. Wins in 14 of 15, regardless the opposition, presents a compelling New England case. Play Patriots

The most impactful injury this weekend might be to Texans WR Nico Collins (concussion). Houston is left with an unimposing group of pass-catchers. And if QB C.J. Stroud continues to have the shakes, which nearly poisoned the Texans in their wild-card win, points will be hard to come by versus the league’s 10th-rated defense. Houston’s defense has no peer, but its one shortcoming is corralling scrambling QBs, a category in which it ranks last. Wouldn’t you know that the Pats’ Drake Maye compiled more runs off scrambles than anyone and ranked third in yards gained. In the divisional set of postseason games, Houston stands 0-6 SU. That’s a cross to bear against a foe that owns a decent lifetime record in this round.

With Nico Collins out, Christian Kirk should be the primary downfield threat for CJ Stroud and Kirk blew up in the WC win in Pittsburgh with 144 yards on nine targets and that was with Collins playing a chunk of that game before leaving with a concussion. Our model has Kirk at 45 yards -- he had a 46-yard catch vs. the Steelers. The Pats may not have Pro Bowl corner Christian Gonzalez.

In the two games Xavier Hutchinson ran the most routes in, Weeks 6 and 17, Nico Collins was out. And in both games he saw six-plus targets and caught five balls for at least 69 yards in each. As long as Collins is out, I fully expect Hutchinson to reprise his role as the Texans primary perimeter receiver. It'll mean he'll see some of Christian Gonzalez in coverage, but I'd be shocked if the Patriots dedicated serious resources to Hutchinson. Tack on concerns I have about Houston being able to run the ball, and I'd take advantage of these lines before the steam up. I would not play over 3.5 receptions whatsoever, and I would hesitate to go any higher than 34.5 yards.

In the two games Xavier Hutchinson ran the most routes in, Weeks 6 and 17, Nico Collins was out. And in both games he saw six-plus targets and caught five balls for at least 69 yards in each. As long as Collins is out, I fully expect Hutchinson to reprise his role as the Texans primary perimeter receiver. It'll mean he'll see some of Christian Gonzalez in coverage, but I'd be shocked if the Patriots dedicated serious resources to Hutchinson. Tack on concerns I have about Houston being able to run the ball, and I'd take advantage of these lines before the steam up. I would not play over 3.5 receptions whatsoever, and I would hesitate to go any higher than 34.5 yards.

Nico Collins is unlikely to play in this game as he remains in concussion protocol as of Thursday, and while Christian Kirk and the rushing attack helped cover his absence post-injury against the Chargers, the team only continued its run of 20-point games due to two defensive touchdowns. The Patriots may be one of their toughest defensive matchups of the season with Milton Williams, Harold Landry and Robert Spillane back in action, and Christian Gonzalez may be cleared from concussion protocol after practicing Wednesday. Defensive playcaller Zak Kuhr worked the Chargers and their poor O-line last week, and he could do the same here and keep C.J. Stroud hurried and panicking for a second straight week. Back the Pats defense.

BetMGM opened this Stefon Diggs prop at 51.5 and that number is now gone, but DK still has it at 50.5 (I would play this under as low as 48.5). The Patriot receiver group has a tough matchup against the Texans and I think Diggs is likely to get plenty of attention from the Texans top two corners. The Patriots like to utilize all of their receiving weapons and that includes the likes of Chism, Williams, Douglas, Henry, Boutte and the running backs. With a tough matchup in mind and the fact that Maye is likely to spread it thin across his plethora of pass catchers, I don't see Diggs having enough big splash plays to hit this over.

When you watch how the Houston Texans can dominate a game, you can't help but see how special of a unit they have. Now, the Patriots have a very good defense as well and will be facing a Texans offense potentially without Nico Collins. Will all of that being said, I trust the Texans passing attack more so than the Patriots vs a very good defense.

Defense will rule the day in Foxboro come Sunday afternoon and we're going to bank on both teams leaning into their stop units in a game of this magnitude. Both head coaches lean into their defensive DNA to run the rock and I think that continues here behind two stout stop units. Houston has been great generating pressure without blitzing and will need to protect against the explosive and Maye's legs. Meanwhile for the Texans it appears the passing attack is going to be down their alpha in Nico Collins which poses a big problem with generating chunk yardage. Lets get a fast moving run heavy 1st half in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.

C.J. Stroud was bad on Monday night and he’s potentially without his star wide receiver Nico Collins on Sunday due to a concussion. Not good for Houston. Plus, teams coming off the Monday night playoff win have never won another game in the playoffs. But there’s always a first for everything. Behind the strength of a tremendous defense and five Ka’imi Fairbairn field goals, Houston’s offense does just enough to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time ever. Drake Maye will have better days as will his Patriots. Texans 22, Patriots 17.

Stevenson has seen a ton of snaps over the last few weeks and was the focal point for the Patriots offense against the Chargers. He's not normally considered a receiving back, per se, but his targets are way up over the last month plus. He has 20 targets in his last six games, all of which have seen him go north of 21 receiving yards. When Stevenson is out on the field, defenses are typically geared up to stop the run and he's able to slip out, catch a quick pass from Drake Maye and pick up good yardage.

Both these teams put together dominant wins led by their defenses in the wild card round, but considering the opposition I was more impressed by what the Patriots did. They now look to have a legitimate pass rush that I expect will make life difficult for C.J. Stroud, who may not have top wideout Nico Collins (concussion) for this game. Drake Maye wasn't as his best dealing with pressure last week, so Houston may be able to limit Patriots points, but I believe the matchup on the other side of the ball along with home-field advantage should make this line at least 3, and my ratings would put it even higher in the 5-point range.