Most difficult call of Wild Card Weekend for good reason. The Steelers are dominant on MNF under Mike Tomlin, who is one of the best underdog winners. However, they have been unsuccessful in the playoffs, and they barely deserved to be in the field. The Texans are far better indoors yet going outdoors – in the cold – in an exceedingly difficult environment against a team that fought for this spot. Aaron Rodgers has more experience and guile than CJ Stroud, and with DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh can compete. However, Houston has won nine straight, its only losses since Week 3 are to No. 1 seeds and defense travels. Rodgers is going to be pressured all night, and the Texans will put up just enough points.

Pittsburgh really shouldn’t be in this position but they are. The Steelers have won 23 straight home games on MNF, going back to 1992 and Mike Tomlin is a perfect 11-0 SU. Teams that play in a dome are 1-14 SU in playoff games with the temperature under 35 degrees, 30 degrees at kick. The Texans have yet to win a road playoff game in franchise history as well. Pittsburgh gets back DK Metcalf which will open up the over receivers and the backs out the backfield. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since January 2017 and playing on Monday Night with Aaron Rodgers seems all too perfect to end that streak.

Winning on the road sometimes requires less risk offensively, and relying on your defense. That’s been the recipe for the Houston Texans on their nine game winning streak. Expect minimal opportunities for Cade Stover who had just twelve catches on the year for seventy six yards, but I do believe he gets a target or two with the Texans running safe offense. Take Stover’s over.

Jaylen Warren caught all five of his targets last week and in this matchup, he should be involved as a receiver. The Texans have given up 20 catches to opposing backs over the past four games. They force QBs to get rid of the ball quickly. I would also play this Over 2.5 for plus money.

This is a value-heavy ML price on the Texans, whose stifling defense could easily lead them to the AFC title game. The Steelers' rollercoaster season ended with a wild and fortunate finish against the rival Ravens, sending their once-iconic coach to the unemployment line, a fate Mike Tomlin might have faced if the roles were reversed. It's fair to say Pittsburgh played slightly above expectation this season, but its season will end in familiar fashion with a seventh consecutive playoff defeat.

We have seen mostly higher scores in the Wild Card round, with only the Chargers' failure to react to anything the Patriots were doing defensively last night helping hold down that scoreline at Gillette Stadium. Otherwise, each previous wild card game had scorelines higher than this 38. The Houston defense is rugged but Aaron Rodgers remains nothing if not resourceful, and gets top target DK Metcalf back from suspension tonight. Meanwhile, there are playmakers on the Houston side led by CJ Stroud. There doesn't have to be a lot of action to get this scoreline above 38 tonight. Play Texans-Steelers Over.

I think Pittsburgh is getting too much love. If not for a Tyler Loop missed FG and a comedy of errors from Baltimore (in BOTH matchups down the stretch of the season), we wouldn’t even be talking about the Steelers. Their offense ranked 25th in yards per game, and will be up against the best defense in the NFL with both of their elite CBs healthy. The Texans defend short passes well, which the Steelers offense relies on. Against top 10 defenses this year, Rodgers threw 5 TD/4 INT. Stroud might struggle in a hostile outdoor environment, but I actually like the Steelers man coverage-heavy matchup for him. The game total is down to 38, so I’m backing the better defense here.

We saw on Sunday that results history is no guarantee of future results: Buffalo hadn't won a road playoff game since the 1992 AFC title game at Miami yet won at Jacksonville. Now we look at Pittsburgh, which hasn't lost a Monday night game as host since Chuck Noll was still coaching in 1991...but also has six straight playoff losses. As usual, history will play little part in what happens tonight, though there is more resourcefulness on this Steelers side than recent playoff exits thanks to Aaron Rodgers, whose savvy should come in handy vs. the Texans' defense. Houston has won the past two years in this round but both games were at home, can CJ Stroud extend the margin over Rodgers? Play Steelers.

C.J Stroud was a runner early this season, and cleared this rushing yards mark in 7 of the first 8 games. He has 9 games with 10+ rushing yards. In 2 playoff games last season, Stroud had exactly 6 rushes for 42 yards in each game. He’s scrambled less as of late, but he will likely be forced to against a loaded Steelers defensive line. T.J Watt, Alex Highsmith, and a long list of Pittsburgh pass rushers will make Stroud uncomfortable in the pocket. If the blitz is getting home and Stroud takes some early sacks, look for him to use his legs.

The return of WR DK Metcalf from a potentially disastrous two-game suspension gives us pause. But of the four units (offense/defense), how many are elite? Yep, just one. The Texans permitted the fewest yards. They amassed 19 interceptions, creating a plus-17 edge in turnovers. Their pass rushers, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, teamed up for 29.5 sacks. While QB Aaron Rodgers has been crafty enough to lift Pittsburgh over lesser defenses, reduced arm strength and mobility could be exposed by this magnificent D — even with Metcalf out of football jail. A nine-game SU streak alone speaks volumes. Add in the fact that Houston's only setbacks since the bye was to top seeds Denver and Seattle, and the momentum rests with the guests.

FanDuel. DK Metcalf returns for the Steelers after his two game suspension at the end of the regular season. He was under this line in 11/15 games this season, including nine of his last ten. Lining up outside on 81% of his snaps, he’ll have a brutal matchup against both Texans star cornerbacks, Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter. Excluding Week 18, when the Texans rested their starters in the second half, Houston allowed the fewest receptions (5.9), second fewest yards (82.3 per game), third fewest yards per route run (1.71) and the lowest catch rate (54%) to outside receivers (all per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this down to under 53.5 yards.

The Texans' run game has been a work in progress all season, and after Jawhar Jordan emerged late as a capable RB2, he's now been ruled out for this game. That gives a rested Nick Chubb a chance to resume RB2 duties, and he may even be leaned on a little more than usual as the veteran presence in a playoff setting. While the Texans' rushing attack is 29th in yards per carry this year, they stay committed to it enough that the volume has resulted in 75 rushing yards in all but one game. The Steelers are middle of the road in defending the run, so this is a game where Chubb should get over this total if he can get 4-5 carries.

Kenneth Gainwell has arguably been Aaron Rodgers most trusted target, particularly recently after DK Metcalf was suspended for the final two games of the regular season. While Gainwell is a savvy sure handed veteran, this is a line typically reserved for Christian McCaffrey, in addition to Metcalf returning to the lineup. This game projects to be a low scoring defensive battle that could feature a few less dropback for Pittsburgh’s passing offense. Regardless of gamescript I like fading Gainwell picking up a 6th reception. I would pass on this line at 4.5.

FanDuel. I’ll start backward here - I expect the Steelers offense to struggle. The immobile Aaron Rodgers will face the tenacious Texans defensive line. DK Metcalf will go toe-to-toe with stud cornerback Derrick Stingley, and the Steelers running backs have to deal with the Texans second best run defense by DVOA, and third best pass defense against the position (per FTN). All of this to get to my point - the Texans should dominate time of possession. Woody Marks hasn’t been efficient, but he’s emerged as the guy for the Texans backfield. He’s cleared this attempts line in each of his last five full games. The Texans have the sixth highest neutral gamescript rush rate since Week 12. I have Marks closer to 18 attempts.

We saw the explosive plays that the Steelers' secondary gave up to Zay Flowers in Week 18. Now we have Nico Collins in position to feast against this Steelers' secondary, which allows a 48.9% completion rate on throws 20 or more yards to receivers (31st). Collins has 37% of the Texans' air yards this season. He has gone over this longest reception prop in over half the games this season. I believe he is in a position to go over this line again on Monday night.

Houston’s defense faltered a little down the stretch and, overall, wasn’t as dominant on the road. Aaron Rodgers will get rid of the ball quickly, somewhat negating the Texans’ pass rush. The Texans are more comfortable playing indoors. I’m expecting a game that goes down to the wire and love grabbing a full field goal with the home dog.

Aaron Rodgers has taken total control over the Steelers offense, that much is obvious over the last three weeks when he's attempted at least 39 passes in each game! This week he'll get challenged by a Texans defense that's great everywhere, including against the run. That should force the Steelers to abandon the run. And because the Texans pass rush is so strong even when they don't blitz, Rodgers will have to get the ball out quickly, which he's done all season. In the eight games the Steelers have had 19 or fewer RB runs, Rodgers has had 34-plus attempts in five games, and that includes a game Rodgers got hurt in, so it's more like five of seven.

The difference between the Texans and the Ravens is in their ability to consistently bring pressure all throughout the game. They are also one of the better open field tackling teams in the league. Offensively speaking, Houston can attack you with four different options in the passing game, making this a very difficult matchup across the board for the Steelers.

The Texans are built for speed and thrive in the controlled environment of NRG Stadium. However, traveling to Pittsburgh presents a stark contrast, with freezing temperatures and possible precipitation in the forecast. These harsh conditions slow down Houston’s quick receivers and diminish their athletic advantage. Since Week 10, the Pittsburgh Steelers possess elite offensive efficiency (12.4 Yards per point—best among AFC teams except Jacksonville) combined with solid defensive performance (16.0 OPP YPP—SUPERIOR to Houston's 15.5). The Steelers' AFC North championship victory over Baltimore creates a significant matchup with Houston at the #5 seed, where the Steelers' elite offense (12.4 YPP) and better defense (16.0 vs. 15.5 OPP YPP) create a +3.04 yard-per-point combined efficiency edge. My model makes Houston a -1.7 favorite. Grab the hook.

The Texans play at Pittsburgh on Monday night in a Wild Card game, and the early forecast shows that it will be partly cloudy at 33° with the wind blowing at 7 mph and 11% chance of precipitation. That sounds like defensive football. Actually, wherever the Texans play is defensive football weather, as they've gone under 11 times in 17 games this year. The Texans have the No. 1-ranked defense, allowing 277 yards per game and allowing only 17.4 points per game. Aaron Rodgers has played better lately, inspired play, but I don't expect him to fare well against the best defense in football. Under is the play.

The Steelers are in the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, and the market is treating them as DOA. But I'm not underrating a team that scored 25+ points in nine of its last 12 games, even managing it in the finale without DK Metcalf. He's back, as is T.J. Watt, and when you throw in Mike Tomlin as one of the best coaches in football, the current version of Pittsburgh rates above average for me. The Texans' elite defense gave up 30 points to Riley Leonard and the offense has been inconsistent, getting shut down in Week 16 by the Raiders of all teams. Pittsburgh is live for the win here at home against an indoors team playing in a tough road environment.

I can’t believe Aaron Rodgers found a way in the playoffs yet again. I have to think this is it for him either way. The Texans' defense should overwhelm the future Hall of Famer and hold Pittsburgh fairly in check. Entering the playoffs on a nine game winning streak and facing a team who I believe is a class below them, I think Houston’s offense does enough to win, including relying on the leg of reliable kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn. The Texans’ kicker has converted multiple field goals in 14 of 15 games he’s played in this season. Texans 23, Steelers 10.