FanDuel. Good on Amon-Ra St. Brown for giving it a go tonight, but this is now too low of a line for Jameson Williams. The speedster is over this line in five of his last seven games. Without tight-end Sam LaPorta over the last three games, Williams has seen his average depth of target lessen, as the Lions look for different ways to get him involved. Even if St. Brown is a full go, the Lions game planned this week for Williams to be their top pass catcher, and I’d expect some designed plays to get him the ball in space. Plus, in what should be a shootout, I like the matchup against the Cowboys secondary.

The smart play is definitely Dallas +3.5. I've never been accused of being smart. And I need the Lions to win for all my buddies being there tonight. So yeah, I definitely make picks for personal reasons other than stats-related sometimes. I was ready to play Dallas if Amon-Ra St. Brown and all those Lions O-Linemen were out, but they are all playing. Honestly surprised on ASB. Just can't trust Dallas away even if looking miles better lately. Probably a Detroit 3-point win so Cowboys +3.5 bettors win at a better price. Let's all win. But I can't do that number on the road.

Isaac TeSlaa was the talk of the combine with his rare combination of speed and athleticism. Through a limited workload this season he's been targeted in the red zone given his unique skill set. However it's a yardage total tonight I just can't buy as oddsmakers are slotting him as the #2 pass catching option for the Lions. On thanksgiving he had an 83.9% route share, 35 receiving yards, a 7.4% target share, and a 12.5% first-read. Let's see how things go but he's a fade candidate for me as a high volume option.

The most important Thursday Night Football game of 2025 arrives with an elimination backdrop. Dallas enters having won and covered three straight, while Detroit has lost two of three and only covered once since November. If you have followed me, picking the Lions at home – at any number – has been an automatic play. No longer. The hosts have failed to cover three straight at home – in large part due to failures on fourth down and an injured offensive line. The Cowboys have won close games over the Chiefs and Eagles, though both have come in Dallas. However, they are riding momentum and clearly playing better entering TNF. With the hook added, Dallas is the play with a serious sprinkle straight up.

Highest total of the season thus far. If this ends up being the shootout most expect it to be, then so be. But a 28-27 score would still cash this under. The Cowboys defense is much improved since adding DT Quinnen Williams, and getting back LB DeMarvion Overshown and FS Malik Hooker back from injury. Lions WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown status remains a ‘game time decision’ and if he doesn’t play the Lions will offense could look to go run-heavy. The Cowboys offense will be tough to slow down, so Dan Campbell might try to play the possession game and keep them off the field. I’ll take the under and hold my breath.

These two are playing so much on Thursdays that they might as well join the MAC! In the meantime, plenty of buzz about the recent form of the Cowboys, who have won three on the spin since getting humbled by the Cards on a Monday night, and while beating the Eagles and Chiefs in succession impresses, both of those wins came at home. We can't seem to get out of our mind how the Lions throttled Dallas 47-9 last season, and now some urgency on Detroit's side after recent losses has it outside the NFC playoff field. Dan Campbell's play-calling and gung-ho decision-making (especially 4th downs!) can rankle, but the Lions are equipped to outscore the Cowboys, no matter Dak Prescott's recent exploits. Play Lions

The Cowboys' biggest play on Thanksgiving didn't come from one of its biggest stars but rather Davis, who went 43 yards for a touchdown. He's seen his snap share bump up a bit in each of the last three games, and he's rewarded the Cowboys with 20+ rushing yards in three straight games while getting 3-4 carries. The Cowboys would do well to lean on him a bit more while he's playing well and save some wear and tear on Javonte Williams. The Lions have allowed just over 100 rushing yards per game on the year, but three of their five worst performances came in the last three weeks when five different RBs had a single rush go for 11+ yards. Worth playing 10.5 too.

Where Detroit has had some issues this season is in protecting Jared Goff, who isn't the most athletic in the pocket and will take some sacks. Combine that fact with how the Cowboys have bolstered their defensive line, and subsequently their defense, in the last three weeks, you can see where they have a bit of an advantage in this game.

The Cowboys have a serious look to them with the playoffs in sight, but the reality is they're only the 9th seed, when only 7 will come out of the NFC. The Lions would be the 8th seed, and the two teams hook up tonight for the almost-playoff bowl. The Cowboys have won three games in a row, which includes last year's two Super Bowl participants, while the Lions have lost three of their last five, beating only the Giants and Washington since November began. These two teams are headed in opposite directions. The early overnight line on this game was Lions -5.5 after the Thanksgiving loss, and it dropped to -3. I’ll side with the Cowboys here, but I'll bet the over.

B365 at +105. Despite it not working out on Thanksgiving, I’m once again fading a linebacker on his tackles prop against the Cowboys. Alex Anzalone is under this line in ten of 12 games this season. Jack Campbell has been the more efficient tackler for the Lions both against the run (6.1 tackles per game compared to Anzalone’s 3.6). And the Lions running man coverage at the league’s highest rate should translate to more targets for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, versus Jake Ferguson and the running backs - the latter group more likely to be in Anzalone’s tackle radius. I’d bet this to -145.

The Lions are banged-up in the secondary, enabling Amik Robertson to grab an every-down role. He has 11 tackles over the past two games. Now he's facing the Cowboys' high-octane passing attack, which has generated a high rate of tackles for opposing corners. I love Robertson to rack up at least four combined stops.

BetMGM has this at even money and I think that's pretty good value in a game that could come down to who has the ball last. I was hoping the Cowboys would get Diggs back for this game, but either way, they are the healthier team on both sides of the ball and I think Detroit is going to have trouble leaning on its secondary and its beat-up wide receiver group and offensive line. Yes, the game is in Detroit and the Lions are still a solid team, but 3 points is too much to give to the Cowboys right now.

David Montgomery is not the preferred receiving back for Detroit, but the Lions are shorthanded in terms of targets. Detroit's top two tight ends are out, while Amon-Ra St. Brown is truly questionable with a sprained ankle. Montgomery has a reception in all but one game and over the past two weeks, he has caught all five of his targets for 35 yards. The Cowboys have surrendered 18 catches to opposing running backs over their past three games.

Campbell is over this line in 8/12 games this season, and had 8 tackles + assists in all four of his misses. He has the third most total tackles in the NFL (117) and the most on the Lions by a wide margin. The game total is sitting at 54.5, so these defenses will have their work cut out for them. Campbell should have plenty of opportunities to get that 9th tackle to cash this.

After Gibbs caught 10 receptions on 12 targets for 45 yards against the Giants in Week 12, everyone hammered his receiving yards total on Thanksgiving. Much to their dismay, Gibbs had just 3 catches on 4 targets for 18 yards. However, his line is curiously set higher in this matchup after his dud last week. Gibbs is only over this mark in 3 games this season, but has 7 games with 30+ rec yards recorded. The Cowboys are allowing the third most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (44.6). Detroit are likely to be without WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown, and already have TE Sam Laporta on IR. With a banged up O-line as well, I expect Jared Goff to target Gibbs often.

CeeDee Lamb has a great matchup Thursday night, as the Lions' defense gives up the 2nd most touchdowns to wide receivers (19). Lamb is 2nd among wide receivers in endzone targets since he returned (8). He has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games. With an excellent matchup, high total, and close spread, I like this price for Lamb to find the endzone again. If I'm being honest, I like Pickens ATD price too, and will likely parlay them together as well.

After injuring his ankle on Thanksgiving, Amon-Ra St. Brown is still questionable and likely will be a gametime decision Thursday night. But he has not practiced this week, and I think it's unlikely that he'll be able to play. If St. Brown were active, you would have to imagine his snaps would be limited. Enter Jameson Williams, the Lions WR1, who stepped up for seven receptions, 144 receiving yards, and a touchdown on Thanksgiving after St. Brown left the game. He had a 37% target share last Thursday. Now, Williams gets the Cowboys' defense that has given up the 4th most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. In a high total, potential shootout, I love this price for Williams to go over this line.

DraftKings. Jake Ferguson is under this line in 7/12 games this season, including 5/8 when both Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens are active. In those games with both receivers, Ferguson’s average depth of target is a paltry 4.9 yards - 76% of his targets in those contests were 10 air yards or shorter. The Lions run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Ferguson sees his target rate and yards per route run drop against man (while Pickens and Lamb both crush man coverage from a volume and efficiency standpoint). I’m ok with this line down to under 15.5 yards.

Willing to bet against Jake Ferguson getting a 6th reception despite this being a massive total in a game that projects to feature a ton of passing volume. 6 receptions is a tall order for any player, and especially in what would be considered a difficult opponent. The Lions have been good against Tight Ends this season and I’m willing to pay a steep price here.

George Pickens practiced fully Tuesday, setting him up for another big game. It will be played indoors, against a Lions defense that plays the most man coverage (42.8 percent) and third-most single-high safety (61.4 percent) in the NFL. Pickens destroys those alignments. He's cleared this prop total in seven straight games and has 68 targets in that span.

Since Quinnen Williams' arrival, the Cowboys have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL to running backs (117 yards on 36 carries). They just knocked off both of last year's Super Bowl participants. While Dallas will miss Jadeveon Clowney, the Lions' injuries are more severe. Dallas is arguably the better team right now. Grab the field goal.

The Cowboys are surging while the Lions are slumping, so it's tough to take Dallas when the spread was 6 on the lookahead. But since that line was posted, the Cowboys outplayed the Chiefs, while the Lions played an even game against the Packers, but lost another key player to injury in Amon-Ra St. Brown. With Trevon Diggs potentially returning for Dallas, this is a spot where we should expect the Cowboys defense to handle the Detroit passing attack in its current form, and defending the run will be key. Even if Dallas is behind, I trust their dynamic passing game to make this a tight game. Grab +3.5 if you see it at any point, but I'd still take the Cowboys at +3.

What could wind up as the highest total of the NFL season is, well, too high. Dallas' defense has improved dramatically over the past three weeks, and it squares off against an offense missing TE Sam Laporta, (probably) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and scattered linemen. The Cowboys could take the field without OT Tyler Guyton, idled on Thanksgiving Day, and the Lions' defense is better than widely perceived, ranking 13th in yards allowed. All analysis aside, with a number this huge, the way to go is low.

Jamo went nuts when Amon-Ra St. Brown left the game on Thanksgiving against the Packers and if the star Lions wideout can't go on his ankle, then this number will end up at like -125 or so I would think, given the massive total and his usage with ARSB off the field. It's already moved almost 10 cents as of Tuesday morning, if St. Brown is ruled out or doesn't look like he'll play, even money will feel like a steal.