Jake Ferguson is a possession monster; this guy eats targets and earns his paychecks picking up the short yardage. One thing he doesn't do is stretch the field and I think that trend continues tonight against this Cardinals defense. Ferguson's average depth of target is under 5 yards and his average yards per reception is shy of 7 yards. He can exceed both of those but if Zona sticks to the gameplan I see a scenario where he fails to go over his longest catch yardage tonight.

FanDuel. The more I dug into the Cowboys side of this one, the more I kept coming back to CeeDee Lamb. He’s over in 3/4 full games this season (with the one miss in his first game post-injury, in a blowout). This profiles as a shootout-type environment, and the Cardinals are allowing the third most pass attempts per game as is. The Cardinals weakness is at cornerback, and I’d expect Lamb and Dak Prescott to exploit that. Ceedee with a 32% first read share and a 29% target share. The Cardinals are bottom five at defending opposing first reads (in terms of receptions), but with a lower average depth of target. Expecting the Cowboys to look to get CeeDee the ball early and often.

For a team that is 2-5 on the season with five straight losses, the Cardinals are actually underrated. Dealing with injuries and a starting QB who has been out for nearly half that time, Arizona has fought through adversity each week and lost those games by a combined 13 points. The Cowboys have created their own adversity by fielding one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Dallas is coming off an embarrassing 20-point defeat at Denver, and it plays much better at home. Dak Prescott has a significant advantage over Jacoby Brissett, though the latter has been solid in relief of Kyler Murray. If the Cowboys can keep pressure off Prescott, he should be able to work through his progressions and lead Dallas to a cover.

The Cardinals have perfected playing 'em close...and losing. Five straight losses, each one with a chance to win, no margin greater than four points. Arizona also doesn't seem to lose much with Jacoby Brissett in the lineup (as tonight) while Kyler Murray remains out, but the dam might break one of these weeks, as this also looks a team on the edge of the abyss. We know the potency of the Dallas offense, and the Cowboys seem to have a bit more juice at home, having scored 40+ in each game at Arlington this season. Also note that Arizona hasn't been much of a second-half team, outscored 78-49 after intermission this season. Play Cowboys

The NFL's No. 2 offense has reached at least 40 points in all three home games. Not expecting that but I would think at least 30 barring a Dak Prescott injury (5-1 ATS on Mondays). Can I expect the same from Arizona? Against that Dallas defense, maybe, but it's still backup Jacoby Brissett. And at least the Cowboys don't quite have to worry about his running like they would have Kyler Murray, who has given Dallas fits in the past. Feels like one team still has a playoff pulse and is home with a Pro Bowl quarterback and Super Bowl offense. Also a Little League defense, sure, but I'm not sure the Cardinals are the club to exploit that enough for a road upset.

Cardinals wideout Michael Wilson has benefitted from playing with Jacoby Brissett, as he registered 44 and 40 receiving yards the past two games. In Arizona's last game, vs. Green Bay, Wilson ran 37 routes compared to 43 apiece for Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. No other receiver or tight end ran more than 24 routes. Against Dallas' league-worst pass defense, look for Wilson to go Over this prop total for the third straight game.

DraftKings. You could probably make a credible case for all Cardinals pass catchers to go over their receiving yard props tonight. The Cowboys are an elite matchup for opposing wideouts, allowing the second most passing yards and the most receiving yards to wide receivers. While Michael Wilson was ice cold to start the season, he’s cleared this line in each of the last two games with Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett has been more willing to push the ball downfield (his deep passing rate is twice that of Kyler Murray), and Wilson should benefit. The Cowboys are decimated by injuries in the secondary, and are already allowing an insane 10 yards per WR target as is. I’d bet this up to over 28.5 yards.

Jacoby Brissett is a valued backup QB. Yet at the risk of oversimpliying: His opposite, Dak Prescott, is having a Pro Bowl type of season. Given the narrow spread and magnified home-field edge on Monday night, the three points is worth laying. (Shop around since many sportsbooks list 3.5 and the Cardinals' five losses are by an average of 2.6 points.) With Prescott, the Cowboys stand 5-1 SU on MNF, and they have covered three in a row overall as home faves. As close as the Cards have come to victory during their drought, the fact is their latest outright W was on Sept. 16. While Brissett has looked sharp in relief, 'Zona would prefer having Kyler Murray, 9-0 SU lifetime in this stadium.

The Cowboys have gone over the total in their last five games, and they've gone over 40 points in all three home games this year. They're at home tonight and play the Cardinals, who have lost their last five games by four points or less and have gone over the total in their last three games. So you know what that means for tonight? This game goes over thanks in part to the Cowboys 31st-ranked defense that allows 404 yards per game, and they allow 31 points per game, which also ranks 31st. On offense, the Cowboys average 30.8 points a game, which ranks second in the NFL. Over is the play.

This is a principle play for me as this number is very high. And while most books have this number shaded to the over, I can see plenty of scenarios where the over falls short. It's a good matchup for completions as the Cardinals defense likes to funnel things underneath, but I think the Cardinals will have some tricks up their sleeve defensively coming out of the bye. I can also see the Cardinals trying to control some clock in an effort to limit possessions. Dak's volume has decreased ever so slightly the last few games and I like that to continue on MNF.

The price tag on this over 6.5 receptions line is a bit steep, but I’m willing to pay the juice. In his two starts this season, Jacoby Brissett has a combined 24 targets, 18 completions & 3 TD’s to McBride. McBride has had at least 5 receptions and 7 targets in every game this season, and should be in line for another high-volume game against a terrible Cowboys pass defense. The game total is sitting at 54 and the Cardinals are +3.5 dogs, so if we get a shootout in which Arizona is trailing, McBride should grab 7-10 catches tonight.

Zay Jones has seemingly come alive for the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett under center. In two games Brissett has started, Jones has compiled 10 targets, 7 receptions, for 148 receiving yards. This looks like an optimal game environment considering we’re working with a 53.5 point total and Jones will get to face a Cowboys pass defense ranked 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in success rate. Considering how low this number is this is a cheap piece in what is likely to be a shootout in Dallas.

Dak Prescott’s record in night games is excellent. He is 14-7 ATS in that spot since 2021. Since 2020, when the Cowboys are playing as the favorite in a night game they are 13-0 SU, routing their opponents by an average margin of 18.3 ppg. Despite their ugly 2-5 record, the Cardinals have been sneakily competitive, losing 5 games in a row by 4 points or less. Kyler Murray has been a very profitable road underdog in his career (especially against Dallas), but he isn’t playing tonight. As bad as the Cowboys secondary has been, I don’t think Arizona will be able to keep up in a shootout. Dallas has played 3 games at home this season, and dropped 40+ points in each of them.

Cardinals backup QB Jacoby Brissett will make another start, which isn’t even a downgrade from Kyler Murray at this point. Brissett kept the Cardinals competitive in their last two games against the Colts & Packers, and went well over this passing yards mark in both of them. He’s had 35+ pass attempts in consecutive games as well, and should be letting it fly tonight against the Cowboys who rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass. Dallas has given up 250+ pass yards to Bo Nix, Jordan Love, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and Russell Wilson this season. If the Cardinals are playing from behind or are forced into a shootout, Brissett should hit this prop for the third straight week.

Let's take a look at the Cardinals' five-game losing streak. They lost by one at San Francisco, by three to Seattle, by four at Indy and by four to the Packers. Of course they also lost at home to Tennessee, but remember, they were about to take a 28-6 lead when Emari Demercado dropped the ball short of the goal line. The Cards led in the fourth quarter in each of those five losses. Dallas ranks dead last in pass defense and will again be without both starting safeties plus at least one depth safety. Another safety is questionable. Look for the Cardinals, who used the bye as a reset, to keep it close on Monday Night Football.

The spread is in flux in this game, and that gives us a chance to make a second play by taking the Cardinals team total at a discounted number at FanDuel. The Cowboys have allowed 22 points in every game and 30+ five times, and I'm not sure why we should expect any different in this matchup. Even if Kyler Murray can't return, Jacoby Brissett is more than capable of getting the ball to Arizona's quality passing-game weapons, as the Cardinals averaged 25 points in his two starts against the Colts and Packers. I like Arizona to get to 30 points here.

The Cardinals are 2-5 on the season, with all the losses coming in the last five. But if you look at those losses, they were by four points or less in a variety of last-second kicks, losing the leads in the 4th quarter, and the debauchery that happened in giving the Titans their first win of the year. On top of it all, Kyler Murray has been out for the last two games, and backup Jacoby Brissett has looked good in defeat, so much so that they have a mini-quarterback controversy. It's lit a fire under Murray that will take the Cardinals to victory in Dallas against the worst defense in the NFL. The Cowboys have lost seven of their last eight against the Cardinals.

Kyler Murray is expected to return from injury for this game, but even if he doesn't I have confidence in Jacoby Brissett putting up points against a Cowboys defense allowing 6.2 yards per play and 31.3 points per game. The Arizona defense had its best game of the season before the bye despite the final score, and the team should be healthier and rested coming out of the bye. Trevon Diggs heading to IR proved to be a major issue for Dallas in the loss to Denver, and I'm not sure how they cover Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride in this matchup. I have these teams as even, so I expect this to dip under 3 before long.