Not taking the best number here but it can still happen in this one. No Brock Purdy and the Niners are banged up on both sides of the ball. Mac Jones had success against New Orleans’ defense but the Rams defense is one of the best. Los Angeles can slow down the tempo if they got out in front and the Niners defense, while missing solid players in the secondary, also have a top defense to draw out longer possessions.

The only thing worse for an NFL team being seriously shorthanded is being seriously shorthanded … on a short week. While travel won’t be lengthy for San Francisco to Los Angeles, the 49ers are hamstrung down three top WRs, Brock Purdy, George Kittle (Jake Tonges has done well), Nick Bosa and other important players. The Rams are still a bit of an unknown quantity this season, but not so much that Mac Jones – with only Christian McCaffrey – can go drive for drive against LA's offense. Sean McVay has won three straight over Kyle Shanahan. The Rams can firmly take the top spot in the division and prove that Jones’ eked-out wins over the Saints and Cardinals were a façade. Take up to -8.

The Rams have played extremely well in the early portion of the season, and the 49ers are the most beat up team in the NFL right now. The Rams one of the better defenses in the league, and their offense is explosive. This would have been an outstanding matchup if the Niners were healthy, but in the end I think this game could potentially get ugly. Rams by 10+.

Veteran WR Kendrick Bourne spent time playing with Mac Jones in New England. In Jones' first two starts this season for San Fran, he went a combined 7/9 on targets to Bourne, with Bourne grabbing 4 receptions against the Cardinals in Week 2. The 49ers wide receiver room is now paper thin with injuries sidelining Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and Jordan Watkins. Bourne and Demarcus Robinson are about all Mac Jones has left at WR. I like their familiar connection to get Bourne enough target share for 4+ catches here.

The 49ers will start backup QB Mac Jones on this short week, erring on the side of caution with Brock Purdy. Jones is way over this pass attempts total in his two starts this season (39 & 41). San Francisco are now +8.5 underdogs with all their injuries, and are likely to be playing from behind in this game. The Rams defensive front gets great pressure, and Jones may be forced to throw the ball away often. If the 49ers fall behind early, this prop should have a solid chance of cashing.

First NFL play of the season and though I have Christian McCaffrey on quite a few fantasy teams, I think his usage tonight will be less than usual. Not only do I think the Rams will be ahead early, but San Francisco would be smart to limit his touches, especially between the tackles, on a short week. I could see him ending up with 13 or less carries and maybe 5-6 catches, and I would be surprised if we didn't see more Brian Robinson tonight in relief.

Here's a fun little sprinkle I think is worthwhile, particularly for longest TD promotions on Thursday. Valdes-Scantling's bread and butter is the long ball, with 11 of his 20 career touchdowns going at least 40 yards. The last of his four TDs in 2024 came against the Rams as well. Mac Jones has a big arm, and Valdes-Scantling should be on the field more than usual with the injuries at WR for San Francisco. If the Rams defense is primarily focused on taking away Christian McCaffrey, Valdes-Scantling could be in line for a long score catching the defense off guard.

The 49ers are down their quarterback and top three pass-catchers, and that should allow Robinson to have a key role against the Rams. Mac Jones had four completions to each of his top two receivers in his previous two starts, and by default Robinson is now top two on the depth chart, perhaps even No. 1. Kendrick Bourne may end up the leading target getter if he's used primarily in the slot, but I see Robinson as getting enough targets in what should be a chase script that I have him as better than even odds to reach three receptions.

We're all aware at what an injury-ravaged mess the 49ers are heading into Thursday night's game. But we're also aware that Mac Jones has emerged as a high-end backup and already performed well this year and WRs such as Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson have had more than one day in the sun at the NFL level. This is an important divisional game and we expect what's left of the 49ers to compete well against a Rams club coming off a taxing comeback win against the Colts.

Christian McCaffrey has been an absolute workhorse this season and due to the 49ers being arguably the most injured team in the NFL has carried the offense through the first quarter of the season. While McCaffrey has undoubtedly been a stud he’ll be the focus of the gameplan tonight against a Rams defense that has been elite, dating back to the end of the last season. The Rams are extremely stingy against specifically RB pass-catching, allowing the fewest receptions and second-fewest receiving yards to RBs in their last five games as well. This is a huge number for even a WR. I’d play this down to 6.5 at plus money for a half unit.

It'll likely be Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson getting the primary wide receiver targets against the Rams in a negative game script. Robinson's snap share was relatively low in Week 4, but that was his first game back from suspension and the WR room was in tact at that time. Of the healthy receivers remaining on this roster, it was only Robinson who got paid this offseason (2 years/8 million with 6 million guaranteed) and I do think that's a relevant point when observing the rest of the 49ers healthy receivers (i.e. - MVS and Skyy Moore). I think Robinson can also take advantage of a relatively weak Rams secondary with his size and contested catch ability.

FanDuel. It’s Week 5, and I already have my first “who is that guy?” prop of the season. Jake Tonges, the third year tight-end, has acquitted himself well in George Kittle’s absence. He’s cleared this line in two of three without the All-Pro, culminating last week with a 58-yard effort. The 49ers will be without both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings in this game as well, and even with quarterback Mac Jones starting, I like the matchup for Tonges here. The Rams rank 25th in DVOA against tight-ends (per FTN). They’ve allowed a tight-end to clear this line in each of their four games, and I project Tonges, who was on the field for 80% of the pass plays last week, to see ample opportunity.

Anybody wanna play a skill position on offense for the 49ers? Vacancies abound. Barely a month into the season, San Fran's unit has been nearly wiped out by injury. For this game, QB Brock Purdy and WRs Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and Jordan Watkins were declared out Wednesday. Previous casualties include WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittles. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan has gotten the better of Sean McVay in the regular season, going 10-4 SU, so his defense could keep the Rams in check. But points surely will be hard to come by, which makes this mid-level total seem a tad high.

We've already targeted CMC's receptions and while I don't want to be too exposed to the Mac Jones led 49ers passing offense, this line is way too low for Tonges, who is the primary receiving tight end with George Kittle still out. It's up to the high 20's elsewhere in the market already and as noted, someone has to catch the ball with Mac Jones lined at 30+ pass attempts.

Getting this in now before it moves to -7.5 or -8, which it inevitably will because of the 49ers injury situation. Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Juaun Jennings are already ruled out, which means the Niners are rolling out a skeleton crew for this game. Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne and DeMarcus Robinson is now how Kyle Shanahan drew things up. CMC can still do damage but this is a big ask. Especially with the Niners pressure rate plummeting last week after Nick Bosa got injured.

With Kendrick Bourne and DeMarcus Robinson serving as the top two receivers for the 49ers, there's a really good chance CMC sees another game similar to two weeks ago, when he was peppered with a ridiculous 16 targets, bringing in 10 catches in total. That followed on a 10-target, six-catch game against the Saints, as it seems 1) Kyle Shanahan wants to make life easy for Mac Jones and 2) Mac Jones wisely likes to get the ball to CMC. This moved pretty quickly off of 5.5 (-149) up to 6.5, which makes complete sense. I'm honestly fine laying the larger number for plus money. CMC is has to be heavily, heavily involved in this game if the Niners want any chance of winning

The Rams have topped this number once this year, and that was at awful Tennessee. The Niners might be really short-handed offensively, so they might shorten this game a ton by running the ball all night or dumping short passes to Christian McCaffrey to chew clock. The Rams haven't scored at least 28 points in this rivalry since December 2019. Our model has them right at 27, and I wouldn't play Under 26.5.

Kyren Williams fumbled and only finished with 13 carries in Week 4. Yet he was incredibly efficient, posting a ridiculous 85 percent success rate and averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Books expect a bigger workload Thursday (16.5 carries projected) against a 49ers team that just allowed 4.7 yards per carry and 151 rushing yards to Jacksonville. That was San Fran's first game without Nick Bosa. Yes, Blake Corum will eat into Williams' workload. But with four additional 49ers among their front seven listed as limited Tuesday, I bet Williams to clear this prop total. LA ranks No. 1 in adjusted line yards and No. 2 in explosive rush percentage. In addition, Williams received 23 and 29 carries in his TNF games last season.

The 49ers are dealing with a number of injuries on offense for this game, and it seems likely Mac Jones will get the start. That's bad news against a great Rams defense that has held teams under 5 yards per play. But the 49ers have done that as well, and despite the score they really only gave up one long TD drive, one broken run and a punt return TD. This could be similar to the Cardinals-49ers game that ended 16-15 two weeks ago, and I'd play this down to 45.5.

It's not the best of the number here but I think there's still an avenue to reverse engineer a value bet playing against the 49ers offense. San Francisco could be down Brock Purdy, JaJuan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle in their passing attack. That's a lot of production to replace against a Rams stop unit trending in the right direction. SF still hasn't scored a rushing TD this season and against this defensive front it won't prove easy. We'll back the Rams D to stymie the 49ers O in a key divisional game

I already mentioned the look for Adams on Thursday to score once and I think it would be silly not to take two touchdowns as well. Matthew Stafford clearly trusts the veteran in the red zone and Adams has beef with the 49ers from this offseason not to mention an impeccable history against the team he grew up watching. Just .25u on this one.

Davante Adams already has incredible splits against the 49ers -- seven touchdowns in five games while averaging 126 yards per game in those contests. Add in the fact he was interested in joining the 49ers this offseason but got told they could offer "wholesale" prices for his services, he then refused to negotiate with them. Now he gets the Niners in prime time, at home, in a massive divisional game. This is the best price by a good 15 centers on the market.