I think Stafford could carve up an overrated Saints secondary and throw for 400 yards if that's how Sean McVay rolled. But it's not and that approach would surprise me and I think he rides his young and spry RB here and then enjoys a long layoff. Williams got over 20 touches in his first game back from an injury layoff. He got 20+ last week when McVay could have chucked it all game on a Commandos secondary that is way worse than NE. But Saints can't stop the run and I could see 35+ total carries for LA (which scares me off Stafford gross numbers) with 20-22 of them going to their bell cow, WIlliams

The Rams and Saints are both attempting to make playoff pushes as the season wraps up, but from watching both teams, it feels like New Orleans' improvement is being a bit exaggerated after wins over the lowly Panthers and Giants. The defense is solid but faces a huge step up in competition as Los Angeles has gotten healthy with Cooper Kupp finally back near 100%. The Rams should jump ahead early behind Sean McVay's scripting, and the Saints will likely have trouble catching up. Look for big games from Kupp and Kyren Williams. LA is on a 4-0 ATS streak, which would be 5-0 save for a single point.

Both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt. The Rams are playing their best football of the season. New Orleans is off back-to-back wins against two of the worst teams in the league. However, the Saints have an above average secondary, who hasn’t allowed a touchdown in the last two weeks, to battle with Los Angeles’ receivers. Also, primetime divisional favorites off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 0-14 ATS when line is less than five.

When he plays full games he is their best and most productive receiver. This number is low, I expect and project 6 catches.

Although it's been far from pretty, the Saints have grinded their way to back-to-back wins on the heels of a three-game skid. Granted, there's not a lot to celebrate in beating the Panthers and Giants. But the New Orleans defense has looked solid in giving up just 12 total points in those games, and its plodding offense will benefit from the return of WR Chris Olave. The Rams have won four of five but have benefited from mostly meager competition. New Orleans is still in the thick of the division and wild-card races, and should at least do enough to cover the number.

Hill is characterized as a "Swiss army knife" type of player. He is used in a variety of schemes as a bruising runner who will put his head down and fight for yards. Last week, Hill saw very little action. The Saints blew out the Giants, and Hill was dealing with a foot and hand injury. He comes into this game with no injury designation. Playing on a short week on the road in primetime, I imagine the Saints will look to use him to control possession and dictate tempo. Hill has 4 games this season in which he has cleared 50 rushing yards. If Hill is featured early on, this rush yards line at 17.5 might look like a misprint

Alvin Kamara's receiving yards are up this season. The over is 9-2, and he averages over 41 yards despite -11 yards two weeks ago. This line feels like it's based off his 32 yard average last season. Act now on this before it creeps up even more.

There's still enough love to share even with Cooper Kupp back. While Puka Nacua's yardage dropped almost 50%, his target share only dropped 16%. The Rams are averaging 277 passing yards in 3 games with all 3 weapons playing. Stafford’s prop line is around 250 yards and Nacua should be good for >25% of those receiving yards. The Sportsline Model makes the number 76.

We're not asking for much volume here. A.T. Perry averages 21.9 yards per reception, so we're potentially looking for one catch here. The fact that targets didn’t jump with Chris Olave out last week makes me feel more secure that his role is clear and defined, as in two targets. Since actually having a role, Perry has recorded 38, 7, 30, 44, and 34 yards.

The Rams are healthy on both sides of the ball and are coming in with some impressive wins and impressive losses. Since their Week 10 bye they've won 4 of 5 games and their lone loss is in overtime at Baltimore. The Saints sport the same record as the Rams, but they have largely beaten up on bottom feeders. This has resulted in a statistical profile, particularly on defense, that is largely fraudulent.

The Rams have a bit of a menacing look about them right now after wins in four of the past five games, and Matthew Stafford on song at QB. But a quick inspection of the damage shows some very beatable foes like recent Rams patsies Seahawks and Cardinals, the Browns with Joe Flacco making his first start after just signing, and Washington, which made a late rally behind Jacoby Brissett. Expect the Saints to play with purpose, fighting to stay in the lead in the NFC South and also to keep their wild hopes alive. Though only facing the Panthers and Giants, the D allowed only six points in each of the past two game. Play Saints

Saints HC Dennis Allen has confirmed that Chris Olave is expected to suit up for TNF. While it's been an up down season on paper for the sophomore wideout, Olave has been excellent and his underlying metrics are especially impressive. Olave ranks in the top 90th percentile in air yard share, target share, weighted opportunity rating, first read targets, ESPN's open score etc. Now he gets to face a Rams pass defense that ranks nearly dead last in PFF's coverage grade. LA's offense possesses enough firepower to force the Saints in increased passing volume. This checks all the boxes for a potential spike week for Olave.

Saints middle linebacker Demario Davis is 34 but playing at an extremely high level. He's the team's highest-graded defender and best tackler, per PFF, and has missed only six tackles all season. Davis is coming off a monster game vs. the Giants: 10 tackles, two for loss, including a sack. He has 60 tackles over his last seven games, clearing this prop total five times. I'm expecting a Rams gameplan that features the run and short passing. That should give Davis ample opportunity to record seven-plus combined tackles.

Kyren Williams is on an insane tear since returning from an ankle injury four games ago. He's gained 143, 88, 114 and 152 rushing yards while being heavily featured by Sean McVay. The Saints shut down Saquon Barkley last week, but they didn't have to worry about the Giants' passing game. In this matchup, New Orleans must defend Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua. New Orleans has allowed 4.8 yards per carry over its last three games and ranks 27th in explosive rushing plays allowed this season.

I love the job that Rams coach Sean McVay is doing with this young team. He has them playing extremely well on both sides of the ball. I don't see how the Saints, offensively speaking, will be able to keep pace with the Rams.

The Saints have won their last two in blowout fashion, but both were at home against maybe the league's two worst teams. Even in the first of those wins, they gave up 204 rushing yards to Carolina, continuing a pattern of awful rush defense paired with good pass defense. The Rams are at the point where they can do both well, with Kyren Williams rushing for nearly 500 yards in just four games since returning from IR. He'll get plenty of work here, and the Saints can't afford to load up to stop him with Matthew Stafford slinging the ball around. I expect another 100-yard game from Williams this week.

Saints RZ offense is not good (21st) and they are facing a much-improved defense here. New Orleans has been held to 19 or fewer in three of their last four road games. Grupe is 1st in NFL in FGA on the road (18), making 14 of them in 7 games. He attempted 6 of them in the Saints last road game and has made 2 or more in 5 of 7 on the road. Perfect kicking conditions and offense will likely struggle even more to finish drives on a short week with so little practice time, especially for special situations. Plus, key injury situations with Saints skill players, and a conservative coach who thinks his defense is better than it really is - FGs!

When Kupp is right physically, you really can't cover him. We aren't that far removed from the days when you could pencil him in for 100+ each week, and he looks like that guy now. Saints have a stout pass D, but struggle against TEs and I see Kupp as a joker TE running those routes and concepts vs New Orleans, even more than Higbee. Kupp is over 110 in the last two and the Saints will have their hands full trying to tamp down the Rams run game, so how much of a two-deep shell can they play? He's back to being a downfield threat, too, and one grab over 25 alone puts us in great shape.

Rams have scored on their opening drive in four straight games, and McVay's early script will be a problem for this defense. Bet they come out road-grading like they did the Ravens. Rams have scored 13+ in the first half in 4 straight and the Saints are 19th in 1st half differential (-21) this season, despite playing mostly awful QBs. Road team on a short week will be a problem for New Orleans. Carr will turn the ball over, especially if he has to play from behind.

The Rams OL will push around a poor Saints run defense for four quarters and Sean McVay has no qualms about slamming the ball on the ground and preserving Matthew Stafford for the playoffs. I expect him to go over this in rushing yards alone. Saints allowing 4.9/carry since Week 7, 31st in NFL, and Rams average 5.0/carry in 5 games since their bye (5th) and Williams is 4th in carries the last 5 weeks and 2nd in rushing yards (497) and averaging 5.6/carry. Throw in the 2 screen passes he catches a game and I project 115+ scrimmage yards vs this defense.

No reason why Sean McVay won't keep riding this kid. Even with two fumbles last week he kept getting fed the ball despite the Rams being equally equipped to throw it all over the Commanders. Saints pass D has been stout but allow 5.0/carry since midseason and don't let selling out to stop NYG ground game fool you. They can't do that against this 11 Personnel passing attack. Pick your poison. Williams has 21 carries or more in three straight and will go over 100 yards on the ground against this group on a short week.

This is simply grabbing it before -200. The Rams have been a completely different team out of their Week 10 bye with a 4-1 record and that lone loss in OT at Baltimore. Likely tough for Saints right tackle Ryan Ramczyk and WR Chris Olave to play after sitting Sunday. Two Rams who sat Sunday, OT Rob Havenstein and WR Tutu Atwell, are expected to play.

This is essentially a playoff game; I'll take the Super Bowl winner who is a top 5 QB right now over a guy who almost always comes up small in these spots. Carr has just 6 TDs to 3 INTs in 7 road games, and long travel on a short week against a team that should be 5-0 since its bye is a big ask. Saints run D stinks and Rams are as committed and effective road grading as anyone. Too many options in play action off that stuff. Saints pass D looks awesome but Goff and Lawrence are the 2 best QBs they've faced. This is a much tougher challenge. McVay's early-game scripts have been fire and Saints cant play from behind.

The Saints' defense dominated the woeful offenses of the Panthers and Giants in New Orleans, but this is another challenge entirely. LA has averaged 6.0 yards per play over its last three games, third-best in the NFL. The Rams are 4-1 since their bye; the loss coming via a punt return in overtime at powerhouse Baltimore. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puca Nacua and Kyren Williams built a 28-7 lead over Washington early in the fourth quarter Sunday before taking their collective foot off the gas. It was the fourth straight game in which LA scored 28-plus. Lay the points.