We're not asking Derrick White to do anything he hasn't already. White has eclipsed this number in both games against Miami. I understand the books adjusting for a road game, but Miami actually plays worse defense at home and allows 2% high 3-point percentage. He's had three recent single digit games which I think is adjusting this line, but before that was on a nine game streak to this over. White historically doesn't have issues on the road and I don't anticipate it beginning tonight.

Not going to over think this here. This is below Austin Reaves' season average and is a response to two recent low production nights. Reaves saw less minutes because of D'Angelo Russell's massive night in Game 2, and i'll take my chances we don't see that again from Russell again in Game 3. This is available at 12.5 at some spots, and I see this quickly steaming by Thursday night. The Sportsline Model has Reaves projected for almost 15 points in 32 minutes.

We're not asking anything new of Nurkic. He finds tremendous success against Minnesota, averaging 3 blocks + steals against them this season and combing for 11 in his two most recent games against them. While Rudy Gobert seems to have him locked down in just about every other category, this seems like a good spot Nurkic can continue to contribute in this series.

I'll be honest I'm stunned we're seeing a line this low and at this price. Malik Beasley's scoring will absolutely be necessary in the absence of Giannis. I expect him to shoot high volume from beyond the arc, where he is shooting 41% this season, and against the Pacers specifically. Beasley is averaging just over 11 points this season and 9 against Indiana. I see no reason he will not see an increase in production tonight. The Sportsline model makes the number 14.

This isn't asking much of Kelly Oubre. He is averaging nearly 18 points the last month. He's had two unders his last two games which is giving us a good buy low spot. He had a slow start and early foul trouble against Miami, and I don't see that happening two games in a row. He averages 16 points on the road and nearly 19 against the Knicks.

We're looking too closely at Evan Mobley's lower home average here. He's hit three unders in his last five, but before that was 6-1 to the over. Other PFs who average around the same amount of points as Mobley are averaging 17 points at home verse Orlando, 4-1 to this over with a 20 point average. The Sportsline Model makes the number 17. I'd even play it at 14.5 for a better price.

Jaime Jaquez has no choice but to step up. While a lot of his props are too inflated, this is a great price for a line he has surpassed his last three games against Chicago. No Jimmy Butler and no Terry Rozier should mean more minutes and ball handling for Jaquez. Chicago also has one of the worst defenses in the league which should result in plenty of assists opportunities.

This line is priced using the wrong logic. This takes a look at his season average and last year's stats against the Kings. However, Steph Curry has had strong road trends this season, specifically recently. He comes into this game 6-2 to this over, averaging 11.8 rebounds and assists in that span. This line has already steamed up from 9.5.

Zion Williamson has learned to bounce back from stinkers. In the second half of the season, he has followed up poor shooting nights with upwards of 36 points. He's had a strong season over trend and a strong past month specifically, going 11-5 to the over averaging almost 25 points. The Sportsline Model makes the number 27.8.

I see little reason to fade this player who has stepped up the last 2 months. Rui Hachimura has eclipsed this number in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging just over 17 points. He found himself as a big playoff presence last year against Denver as well. The Lakers will need his size and athleticism against this big Pelicans lineup, and there is always the chance AD slows down a bit.

It's time to get Chet Holmgren in a get right spot. He is only averaging 15.4 points and assists in his last 9 games, but overall all has favorable home trends. Specifically against the Spurs, his last 2 matchups have been strong, averaging 24.5 points plus assists. Look for the Thunder to keep Chet in through the 4th quarter with Dort out and opportunity for a get right spot.

We have to fade the season trend here, and look at this specific lineup. The Nets will be without Dennis Smith and Dorian Finney-Smith, which should keep Schroder on the court tonight. The over is solid 24-17 when he plays 32+ minutes, and we get a good bounce back spot from his game against Sacramento. There has to be regression up from going 1-12 shooting and 0-6 from three. The model makes the number 27.5.