Hottest team in the league against one of the worst. Best RL team on the road vs the worst RL team at home. O's hurler running out of gas and not used to these parks and this heat and a 5-man rotation coming over from Japan. 9 ER, 21 H and 6 W in last three starts (12 2/3 IP). Rays hurler went 8 with 11 Ks vs O's a week ago.

Dodgers absolutely mash Austin Gomber. Don' be fooled by Dodgers total stats in day games - they have played the fewest in MLB but are 2nd in OPS (2nd in SLG and 3rd in OBP) and I am on props for Andy Pages and Freddie Freeman. They are pounding the Rockies in this series - play them over 3.5 runs in first 5 as well.

The best RL team in MLB on the road (21-9) vs a Royals team that is running out of steam and looks overmatched all series. Oh yeah, and the Royals are 13-27 on the RL at home, second-worst in MLB (jump on TB vs BAL, their next opponent, ASAP - BAL is 30th on he RL at home). Vegas still not giving the Rays, the best team in MLB right now, their due. Shane Baz has been far better on the road than their AA stadium in Tampa.

Dodgers bats got going last night in a spot they have not all season - after an offday. Rockies pen is on fumes and their starter is a rookie who has struggled with 6.19 ERA. The Dodgers have their ace on the bump. We back Yamamoto in these parts! Rockies getting destroyed on the RL in NL West games.

Mets bats are cold but it's time to get hot with a 20-year old kid on the mound for the Braves in a tough spot. Mets have been dominant at home all season and Braves have struggled. I do not see a sweep here. Clay Holmes is allowing just a .200 BA at home.

The Pirates trying to patch it together with the starting pitching. The Pirates are terrible on the road (11-27) and are 24th in MLB on the RL on the road. The Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11, scoring 62 runs in that span. The kid on the mound for them has been very stout at home.

The White Sox are 27-10 on the first 5 RL at home - best in MLB. They have led after 5 in 5 of Shane Smith's last 8 starts. Smith is 17th in MLB among qualified starters with a 2.53 ERA in the first 5 innings. Eduardo Rodriguez has been a mess with a 6.21 ERA on the road.

Buy it down to 103.5 like I did. That's what the three game at OKC in the finals landed at (103). Pacers road games in the playoffs are averaging 109 int the first half ... and OKC home games are averaging 109. Expect a torrid pace from the Thunder who play at the fastest tempo in NBA in playoffs at home in playoffs. They shoot 41% from 3 in the first half at home and just 26% on the road in that half. True shooting % of 59%. We should see their best here from the jump after another disaster on the road in Game 6.

We've ridden this prevailing trend the entire postseason and aren't stopping now. OKC is winning the first half in the finals by 14.7 points. They had a ridiculous first half net rating of +30.8 at home for the playoffs. Of their 12 home games, they have led 11 by at least 8 points at the half. They are winning the first half in playoffs by an average score of 62-47. Pacers have a _4.8 net rating on road in first half in playoffs and have been slow starters away from home throughout and can't score 45 in the first half at OKC.

The Rockies starter has an 8.64 ERA at home and allowed 3 HR in 8 IP. D-Backs love to hit in Coors. Rockies are 7-13 on the RL vs NL West teams and Merrill Kelly owns them, with a 0.98 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in last 5 starts against them. COL is 18-39 on RL after a loss.

Mick Abel is getting pounded more each starts and I have long maintained he is a pen arm. Will need a quick hook. Mets are 10-4 with Griffin Canning on the bump and they have transformed him into a very effective starter. Will be playing Mets on he first 5 as well as those markets populate.

Kumar Rocker has a 16 ERA in the first 3 innings on the road this season. Gulp. Muggy on the East Coast and ball should travel. Pirates dont have a great lineup but this kid starter looks overwhelmed outside of his big home park. Rangers starting to hit the ball much better - which seemed inevitable - and Mitch Keller starts to wilt second time through lineup. After being a dead under team all season, Rangers are over in 3 of 4 on road. Look a Pirates to score in 1st 3 innings and both teams to score 2+ runs in first 5 innings as well.

Both starters have hideous numbers in day games and Jose Berrios (7.09 ERA in day games), usually better at home than road, has reverse splits in that regard this season. Aaron Civale (7.88 ERA in day games) does nothing for me and Pale Hose lineup has shown some life lately - 17 RS in last 3 games.

My favorite play here is alt line over 112.5 (-150). Maybe you don't need it, but I have been skewing that way in these markets all postseason with ample success. Both games in IND soared over this; Pacers play faster and shoot more at home and OKC can follow. Pure desperation from the Pacers should bring more early points. These games tend to settle down after the half. The Pacers averaging 62/first half at home and OKC's first half defensive rating on the road in the playoffs has been below average. OKC averages 59/first half on the road despite only making 3.5 threes. This number is right at the average of OKC on the road and IND at home, but this is no ordinary game.

The Pacers had their shot in Game 4. They will regret that for a long time. OKC getting that road win - and finally covering away from home too - gives me great confidence they can do it again now. OKC going back to its original starting lineup has balanced out their scoring and the Haliburton injury situation is a legit concern for me. Indy's bench can't keep playing Superman role.