MLB Expert Picks

Probably safe in saying that the Pirates will cash for us in the early game currently leading by nine runs so will go ahead and spin that $$ into this to close out the first half (no Sunday night game). Toronto's Kevin Gausman is 2-4 with a 5.57 ERA away - and a few Padres led by Fernando Tatis Jr. (8-for-20, two HR) have good splits off Gausman. Jays leadoff hitter George Springer is sitting. End of a long West Coast trip as well for Toronto.

Caesar’s. Mackenzie Gore stepped up for the Rangers to start on short rest today, but I can’t see Texas pushing him to the limit, with the bullpen rested enough. Gore struggles enough with his pitch efficiency (3.99 per plate appearance) that he’d likely need to remain highly effective to finish five innings today. This will be Gore’s first MLB start on three days rest.

Twins starter Taj Bradley has given up only six runs on 16 hits over his last four starts (24 innings). He faces an Angels team that’s posted a poor .580 OPS vs. RHPs in July. Conversely, the Twins’ OPS is .782 – over 200 points higher – and Jose Soriano’s hot season start has cooled big-time. Minnesota has a decided bullpen edge here as well.

I can't help but back surging Twins starter Taj Bradley, who has struck out 21 batters over two starts this month. Minnesota has won each of Bradley's last five starts, while Los Angeles has lost four of Jose Soriano's last five road starts. The Twins are tied for the American League's last Wild Card spot and only three games out of first place in the AL Central, so another win against a poor Angels team would put them in a fine spot heading into the All-Star Break. Backing Bradley seems like a good formula to end the first half of the 2026 season in style.

DraftKings. Noah Schultz is under this line in 7/10 starts this season. With a .227 average allowed and 13.8% walk rate, Schultz has only allowed a hit every 5.4 plate appearances, despite his gaudy 6.00 ERA. He’ll face the Athletics in Chicago today, the latter part being key: the A’s have drastic home/road splits against lefties, hitting only .207 on the road (.286 at home). Schultz shouldn’t have a long leash today with the All-Star break looming (and long relief options rested) - I have the tall lefty projected safely at five hits allowed.

Mets rookie Zach Thornton pitched a gem in his second career game on June 26 vs. the Phillies. But now he gets the Red Sox, who are crushing left-handers to the tune of a .936 OPS this month. The Mets’ bullpen in July is a hilarious 10.70. Boston needs to score runs here, while Sox LHP Peyton Tolle, who has a 2.87 ERA on the road, can limit a Mets lineup that's managed two runs so far this series.

Whether it’s Craig Counsell’s game planning or not, the Cubs are the worst hitting team on Sundays in MLB. Here they face Andrew Abbott, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since April, and a Reds bullpen with a July ERA of 1.84. The Cubs’ relievers this month are at 7.04. Chicago LHP Matthew Boyd has gone over five innings just twice all season. We’ll throw a bone to the home dog.

Kahlil Watson started the month with a multi hit game against the Texas Rangers. It has been the only game this month he has done so, as he is hitting .147 in the month of July. Yet he did get a double in yesterday’s win over the Miami Marlins. Look for that to be a spark for Watson who did show at the tail end of June he can be a streaky hitter, when he had a hit in seven straight games. Take Watson over on his combination line.

The Miami Marlins had the most wins in MLB in the month of June, and had a six game winning streak snapped by the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians pitching has limited the Marlins to just three total runs through the first two games. Value play here on Cleveland as the Marlins have not been swept at home yet this season.

The New York Mets have lost both games in their series against the Red Sox where they have totaled just two runs. Payton Tolle has had issues at home in two out of his last three starts. This includes his last home outing where he gave up six runs and two home runs in just three innings of work. Value play here on the veteran Wagaman hitting a home run.

All three of the Cincinnati Reds runs yesterday came via the home run against the Chicago Cubs. Friday was a similar occurrence as three of their four runs came via home runs from JJ Bleday and Elly De La Cruz. Twenty four hits through the first two games against the Cubs has had a wide range of players produce. Look for Marte with Saturday off to be the latest to have an effective game against the Cubs. Take his combination line over today.

Shane Baz has been held under this line in 4 of his last 6 appearances. The Royals aren’t a tough matchup, however they do not strikeout a lot and possess the 7th lowest K Rate in the majors. Meanwhile you could make an argument that Baz has performed above expectations in the strikeout department. Look for him to struggle getting to the 6th strikeout.

I think we have reached the point where Paul Skenes has value. He does not look 100% right but says he's healthy. And with the break coming, you'd think his fastball would be dialed to 11 with a week off. All-Star Brewers catcher William Contreras is sitting. Skenes dominated the Brew Crew on April 24. Counterpart Robert Gasser -- I like to call him Bob Gas -- is nothing special. It was originally to be Jacob Misiorowski and I'd sure have liked to have seen him vs. Skenes but apparently Brewers manager Pat Murphy is a big Grinch and decided to skip the Miz's turn. That's something the Bucs better take advantage of as it's a huge break.

DraftKings. This is a good spot for Robert Gasser, who is cleared this line in five of his eight starts this season. Following the Brewers doubleheader yesterday, and Jacob Misiorowski being scratched with fatigue today, Gasser will be relied upon to eat innings in the first half finale. The Pirates are a strikeout haven for left-handed pitchers, with a 26% K%. Look for Gasser to have a longer leash today.

FanDuel. I like this spot for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The All-Star has cleared this line in 11/16 starts. The Diamondbacks are tough on paper against righties, but are putting out a lineup that features six players with above average K% against right-handed pitching. This includes five righties, the split Yamamoto dominates, especially at home (32% K%).