MLB Expert Picks

Sunday reminded me why I only do half units in MLB spring. This has little to do with the Tigers, although several regulars are in and Framber Valdez is pitching. But Atlanta's lineup is utter trash -- I don't see a single close-to regular and maybe only a couple guys on the OD roster as reserves. Who the heck is cleanup hitter Tristin English? Maybe a modern-day Crash Davis considering he's almost 29 and has gotten a total of 22 at-bats in a cup of coffee in the Show. Both clubs come off Sunday ties, and that is a threat in the spring.

Didn't realize until just now that the White Sox and Cubs were playing today (guess know what I'm doing). Only looked at early games originally. Shame on me. Now that the Red Sox are up 4-1 as I type this, that's likely winning so will spin that $$$ into here. Of course have to have an opinion when these two play regardless of when or where. Appears the Cubbies are taking this pretty seriously with about their Opening Day lineup and one of their best starting pitchers in Shota Imanaga. They should light up Sox starting pitcher and journeyman Anthony Kay. The Pale Hose have only a few regulars in there. I'm tempted to do a full unit but nope not in the spring.

Apparently my spring MLB system is not foolproof -- not that I ever thought it was. The Mets pitchers cooperated yesterday, but the hitters didn't. Again, I want to remind you that this is the day many of the big stars have left their clubs for WBC preparations. Boston is starting most regulars, although I have no idea who No. 9 hitter Allan Castro is. Baltimore doesn't have the worst lineup ever but most key guys (Gunnar, Alonzo, Adley, etc.) are not in it. Half unit per usual. You have to jump some of these spring numbers quick as they fluctuate wildly.

I probably totally jinxed myself, but feel like I found a modest trend in the spring. It's not like I didn't know that teams -- especially in spread-out Florida -- didn't bring their top guys to away games, simply never really considered betting on spring games. You go to those to get sun and drink beer with all the snowbirds. Washington is starting James Wood in the lineup and maybe 1-2 other regulars but mostly flotsam. The Mets are going with about their Opening Day lineup short of the injured Francisco Lindor. Be aware of one thing too: Stars all over MLB will be leaving clubs tomorrow for WBC stuff. I'll be all over that tournament next week in the newsletter.

Fun start to the MLB season with a win Thursday fading the Braves in Tampa as they played basically a minor-league roster in getting clobbered by the Yankees. Certainly won't be fading the Dodgers often, and they will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto. For what, an inning ahead of the WBC? And the L.A. lineup is a bunch of clowns; I don't even know who Zach Ehrhard is. It does pay to fade road teams in the spring, usually, as they like to leave guys home. The excellent Robbie Ray starts for the Giants (likely two innings), who are starting most lineup regulars. They like beating the Dodgers regardless of whether the game counts. Half-unit as all spring games.

Not going to make spring games a habit, but with the WBC next week I want to bet a couple of games to get in the MLB frame of mind. This is simply that the Braves are starting a JV lineup as many teams do in spring road games. The Yanks are starting Aaron Judge and pretty much all other key guys. Obviously they won't play close to the full game. But in three games in Tampa this spring, New York has totaled 31 runs (total is 9.5 today). So let's throw a half down. I'd do the moneyline normally but it's north of -200 and no chance on a spring game.

I'm looking at the total over, and the way I get there is with Max Scherzer giving up his traditional two runs and Shohei Ohtani giving up three, and then the bullpen does the rest. The Blue Jays hitters have beaten up the Dodgers bullpen. With Yoshi Yamamoto going yesterday, that's good news for the Blue Jays. During the postseason this year, they've hit an MLB high 27 home runs, 95 RBIs, and batted .282. When the Dodger pitchers are dominating the game, it stays under, but I don't see it that way here. If you like the Dodgers you play the under, and if you like the Blue Jays, you play the over, and I like the Blue Jays. Over is the play.

I've got to take the Blue Jays in this do-or-die situation for the World Series because they've earned it with their bats all season and especially the postseason. The Dodgers have hit only .230 in the postseason compared to the Blue Jays .282. The Dodgers got here because Milwaukee was slumping and not hitting the ball. But other than Yoshi Yamamoto, the Blue Jays have handled the Dodgers pitching. Yamamoto has two wins, and the Dodgers have an 18-inning win; the Blue Jays have dominated the rest. Shohei Ohtani gave up four runs in a 6-2 loss, and I don't expect him to last very long in this game. Max Scherzer in a Game 7, just like 2019 with the Nationals. Toronto to win.

Just when it looked like the Blue Jays were about to put the Dodgers on the ropes in 9th inning last night came a bang-bang double play to end the game and force a Game Seven tonight. But LA is still not doing much at the plate, only four hits last night, while the Jays have scored nine more runs in the World Series; their three wins are by a combined 23-7. Max Scherzer wants the ball and can give John Schneider four or five innings, which is all Dave Roberts likely gets for whomever starts for him (Shohei Ohtani?). In the end, the Dodger bullpen is going to have to feature, and that's been LA's Achilles heel. Play Blue Jays on Money Line

Will Joe Carter be in the building? Game 6s in Toronto, just saying. I will not be playing a Game 7 if there is one as will simply enjoy that -- it's no secret I root for Canadian teams for the most part in the US sports. Don't love fading Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but as just came up from JBogs in the Discord Channel, why are the Jays at home solidly cheaper +1.5 than the L.A. moneyline? They shouldn't be. No team dominated at home this season quite like Toronto. And Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman is no slouch. They have the better bullpen without question. And elimination games often are one-run, low-scoring matchups. Best-case scenario: Dodgers by a run tonight, Blue Jays on Saturday.

The Blue Jays have been the best-hitting team during the postseason, with the best average (.284), the most home runs (27), the most RBIs (94), and the most hits (168). The Dodgers are the next closest way behind with 126 hits and 60 RBIs. That is solid proof that they're ready to be champions as they're up 3-2 in the series. In the last two games, the Blue Jays resembled the Dodgers in their wins, winning with their pitching. Now the Dodgers send Yoshi Yamamoto, who has had two complete-game wins in his last two starts. The Blue Jays dominated the last two games. Dodger bats have gone cold. I'm going to play the under and think about the winner.

The Blue Jays won their first two World Series by clinching in the sixth game at Toronto in 1992 and 1993, but they didn't have to go against a Yoshi Yamamoto pitching his best of the season. This is it for the Dodgers. They have to win, or it’s over, but they're going with their best as Yamamoto comes off two straight complete games. In his last one, he allowed one run and four hits and got the last 20 hitters out. Kevin Gausman is pitching for the Blue Jays, and in Game 2, he allowed three runs in 6.2 innings, which I think will be all the Dodgers need to win again behind Yamamoto. I'm looking for a game seven. Dodgers win tonight.

The only real problems the Jays have had at the plate in this series came against Dodgers Game 6 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who pitched a complete nine innings in the Game 2 win, as he did Game 2 of the NLCS vs. the Brewers. But after dealing successfully with Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani on the mound in this series, Toronto won't blink. Worryingly for the Dodgers, their offense has been mostly reduced to solo homers in this series and has yet to really erupt since the wild card series vs. the Reds. Toronto's Kevin Gausman (2.55 ERA in five playoff games) has more than held his own on the mound this postseason.

If Yoshinobu Yamamoto is once again great here against the Blue Jays, I'll take my loss, but this line is at least one out too high and in a do-or-die game, I believe Dave Roberts will have more urgency when/if Yamamoto gets into trouble. The Dodgers starter has been insanely good the last two times out, throwing a complete game in each, but Roki Sasaki could be used much earlier than normal to put out a fire and even Shohei Ohtani may be used out of the bullpen tonight. It's all hands on deck in Game 6 and Yamamoto needs to have another stellar game on the mound to beat this line. Second time around against this lineup, I'll take the under.

Why not at this price as I'm not getting any good options on the actual game result (i.e. -1 or Dodgers not bat B9). The Dodgers need and want distance out of Blake Snell as Manager Dave Roberts does not trust his bullpen, nor should he. I also think L.A. might light up Jays rookie Trey Yesavage early on in just his third career road start and first in many weeks. So ideally Snell is up 3-0 or something after five, and he cruises for an inning or two more before getting pulled for possible relief duty in a Game 7 if necessary. No George Springer again for the Jays, presumably, and he's a rare guy with good career splits off Snell.