1 Expert Pick
Will Trevor Rogers pick up where he left off last season?...
On a bit of a spring roll so will go one more day and then call it an exhibition season. The Guardians used eight pitchers last night in giving up 20 runs to Seattle and this is their Cactus League road finale ahead of their home finale in Arizona. So nearly every regular is out today while probably playing Sunday. About an Opening Day lineup for the Giants in their spring finale overall and the excellent Robbie Ray is on the mound. Next MLB play will be the Yanks-Giants RS opener on Wednesday night. Looking forward to the season.
Fully planned to stop with MLB spring on Thursday winning for the third time in four to get about even -- really not sweating results yet -- but when I saw this lineup and price I kinda felt obligated. The Yanks have been the second-best team in Florida and generally rock people in Tampa. And now Aaron Judge is back from the WBC and starting tonight as are pretty much all regulars. The O's have four Grapefruit away wins in 13 tries and are only playing a few regulars.
If I win this, will call it a spring with three wins in the past four. If not, may go one more. Most of the WBC guys are back with teams incidentally. Not a major factor here, just letting you know. Milwaukee is starting nearly its Opening Day lineup, including ace Brandon Woodruff. Texas is starting only a couple of lower-tier regulars and pitcher Jacob Latz has a 5.11 ERA this spring.
Close to wrapping up spring betting, maybe another day or two. Like always, I'm taking the home team that is starting what should be close to its Opening Day lineup against a visiting team basically playing minor-leaguers or reserves. Atlanta has been the best team in Florida at 16-6-2 and Philly one of the worst at 9-13-1.
Pittsburgh has the second-best record in the Grapefruit League and is starting pretty much every regular in the lineup today from lovely Bradenton -- where the Bucs are 7-3. Starting pitcher Mitch Keller has been excellent this spring with a 1.23 ERA over three appearances. Houston is starting no regulars and has three road wins in Florida.
Pretty much the Opening Day lineup for the Braves minus Ronald Acuna Jr. Ace Chris Sale is on the hill for probably 3-4 innings. The Rays are starting a minor-league lineup and pitcher Nick Martinez is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA this spring. Atlanta leads the Grapefruit League with a 15-5-2 mark.
The Yanks have been teeing off on their home field in Tampa this spring and are starting most regulars sans Aaron Judge, of course, as he's with Team USA as is Philly's Bryce Harper. Nary a regular for the Phils, who also face NYY ace Max Fried for the first few innings. On the road this Grapefruit League season, the Phillies have a single victory.
No WBC to play Thursday, so let's try our luck at a Cactus League game. No doubt the Cubs have the superior starting lineup today and better starting pitcher in Edward Cabrera over Emerson Hancock. But it's spring and weird things happen. Half unit. Seattle has the worst record in Arizona.
Well, my spring "system" hasn't worked of late but let's try again after taking a day off and with Team USA also set to play tonight for the first time in the WBC. Note that I'm playing Under 14.5 on that. Again, this pick is simply looking at lineups. The Cardinals' version is utterly anonymous and the Orioles are playing nearly everyone of note. And it's veteran pitcher Chris Bassitt so I don't think he will get lit up like some minor-league guy might. Oh, sure, the guys after Bassitt may get shelled. This is why I only play a half in the spring. I consider this spring training for myself MLB-betting wise.
Very weak Arizona lineup in there, while it seems almost all of the Athletics regulars are playing. I've learned it's key for the spring home team to get out fast before all the scrubs come in. Just hasn't been happening of late. It's spring, I'm not sweating these half-unit losses of late.
Sunday reminded me why I only do half units in MLB spring. This has little to do with the Tigers, although several regulars are in and Framber Valdez is pitching. But Atlanta's lineup is utter trash -- I don't see a single close-to regular and maybe only a couple guys on the OD roster as reserves. Who the heck is cleanup hitter Tristin English? Maybe a modern-day Crash Davis considering he's almost 29 and has gotten a total of 22 at-bats in a cup of coffee in the Show. Both clubs come off Sunday ties, and that is a threat in the spring.
Didn't realize until just now that the White Sox and Cubs were playing today (guess know what I'm doing). Only looked at early games originally. Shame on me. Now that the Red Sox are up 4-1 as I type this, that's likely winning so will spin that $$$ into here. Of course have to have an opinion when these two play regardless of when or where. Appears the Cubbies are taking this pretty seriously with about their Opening Day lineup and one of their best starting pitchers in Shota Imanaga. They should light up Sox starting pitcher and journeyman Anthony Kay. The Pale Hose have only a few regulars in there. I'm tempted to do a full unit but nope not in the spring.
Apparently my spring MLB system is not foolproof -- not that I ever thought it was. The Mets pitchers cooperated yesterday, but the hitters didn't. Again, I want to remind you that this is the day many of the big stars have left their clubs for WBC preparations. Boston is starting most regulars, although I have no idea who No. 9 hitter Allan Castro is. Baltimore doesn't have the worst lineup ever but most key guys (Gunnar, Alonzo, Adley, etc.) are not in it. Half unit per usual. You have to jump some of these spring numbers quick as they fluctuate wildly.
I probably totally jinxed myself, but feel like I found a modest trend in the spring. It's not like I didn't know that teams -- especially in spread-out Florida -- didn't bring their top guys to away games, simply never really considered betting on spring games. You go to those to get sun and drink beer with all the snowbirds. Washington is starting James Wood in the lineup and maybe 1-2 other regulars but mostly flotsam. The Mets are going with about their Opening Day lineup short of the injured Francisco Lindor. Be aware of one thing too: Stars all over MLB will be leaving clubs tomorrow for WBC stuff. I'll be all over that tournament next week in the newsletter.
There are plenty of ways to bet on baseball and plenty of sports betting terms to know when it comes to betting America's pastime. Every professional baseball team will play 162 regular season games, providing a wide range of baseball bets and MLB picks for you to consider. If you're new to the world of USA sports betting, you might find yourself overwhelmed by the sports betting terminology and number of sports betting sites available. Below are several baseball betting terms to help you make the best MLB picks this season.
Money line:The money line is the simplest and most common type of bet in baseball betting. You’re betting on one team to win outright. If a favorite is -150 on the money line, a $150 bet on that team to win outright would return $100. Conversely, if a team is a +200 underdog, a $100 bet would return $200.
Run line:The run line is a type of point spread bet in baseball. Instead of betting on which team will win the game, you bet on the margin of victory. One team is usually listed as a 1.5-run favorite. The other team is listed as a 1.5-run underdog, with corresponding odds attached to both MLB spreads.
Total (Over/Under):The Over/Under, also referred to as the total, is how many combined runs teams are expected to score in a baseball game. If the Over/Under is set at 8.5, then any combined score lower than that would make the Under cash. Nine or more runs is a win for the Over in your MLB picks.
Futures:Futures are long-term bets that won't resolve on the day they are placed. They are often placed preseason or in-season, and a popular baseball futures bet is picking which team will win the championship. Another is using the Over/Under, except in regards to a team's end-of-season win total. For example, the bar for the number of wins for New York’s pro baseball team could be 81.5, and a baseball futures bet is predicting if it will exceed that number.
Parlay:Parlays are simply the selection of two or more baseball picks on a single wager, where all outcomes must be correct in order for the bet to win. Although risky, parlays remain popular because of the potential to win large sums with minimal investments.
Prop (or proposition) bet:If you are looking for a fun way to bet on baseball, a prop bet is right for you. With a prop bet, you can wager on MLB picks like how many strikeouts a pitcher will record or whether a player will hit a home run.
First five innings (F5):A popular bet in baseball, first five innings (F5) is a wager on which team will be winning when five innings have been completed.
Team totals:The total, or Over/Under, usually refers to how many combined runs both teams score in a game, but team totals are popular as well. These are the MLB picks where a bettor will pick Over or Under on how many runs one team scores. If New York’s team total is set at 4.5, any runs total of five or higher would cash the Over, while anything fewer than five results in a win for the Under.
NRFI (No Runs First Inning):A popular bet for those who wager on baseball, NRFI stands for 'No Run First Inning.' The bet can be a bit risky considering both teams generally stack their best hitters towards the top of their lineups. The odds on NRFI bets are variable mostly depending on the quality of pitchers.
Player strikeouts:This bet refers to how many times a player will strike out in a single game. The Over/Under for total strikeouts is often 0.5 with adjusted odds for both wagers.
To hit a home run:If you think a player will hit a home run at any point in the game, you can place a bet, often times for a plus-money payout. You can also bet on who hits the first home run of the game.
To record a hit:Every player is assigned a total for hits in a single game, with bettors placing wagers on if they’ll exceed or fall short of the assigned total. For instance, if you place a bet on a player to record Over 1.5 hits, that player will need to finish with two hits for the bet to be a winner. If the player records just one hit, the bet is a loser.
Total bases:Another popular batter props bet is total bases. Bases are awarded on hits only, with the following scoring system: Single = 1 base, Double = 2 bases, Triple = 3 bases and Home Run = 4 bases.
To record an RBI:RBI stands for ‘Run Batted In.” Sportsbooks will offer an Over/Under on how many RBI a player will record in a single game.
1st inning total runs:An Over/Under is set on how many runs will be scored in the first inning. Oftentimes, Sportsbooks set the Over/Under for total runs scored in the first inning at 0.5 or 1.5.
Correct score:Correct score betting involves predicting the final score of a baseball game. These bets are typically hard to predict, which is why they’re often listed at plus-money odds. You can also predict the exact score of each inning at most sportsbooks.
Player performance doubles:This bet is similar to a parlay, meaning it involves two or more wagers. Player performance doubles often feature over/under starting pitcher strikeouts and a money line pick on which team will win outright.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)Q: Can I bet on a baseball game after it has begun?A: Yes, most sportsbooks offer live-betting, meaning you can place wagers on live-updated totals or even the outcome of the next at-bat.
Q: What happens if a baseball game is postponed?A: It will vary by sportsbook, but most will void and refund unless the game is rescheduled within a certain timeframe.
Q: What is a push in baseball sports betting?A: A push means the point spread or point total hits the exact number in which you bet. For example, if the Over/Under is eight runs, and the game finishes 5-3, the bet is a push and will be refunded.
Q: How do I know which team is the favorite?A: The favorite is usually listed with a negative number, while the underdog is listed with a positive number. For instance, if New York is favored to beat Boston, New York will be listed at -135 (risk $135 to win $100). As the underdog, Boston would be listed at +175 (risk $100 to $175).