The Rockies play a hot Diamondbacks squad that has won five straight games and is only 4.5 games out of first place. The Rockies are 12.5 back in the NL West at 19-32 and have lost their last three games. Arizona has been hitting the ball well during their run, with all their key players hitting at once for the first time all season. Michael Soroka pitches tonight, and he's 6-2 with a 3:49 ERA, having his best season since 2019 with Atlanta. He beat the Rockies 5 days ago in Denver, allowing only two runs. Diamondbacks to win on the run line.
The Rays have won four straight and have a 4.5-game lead in the AL East over the Yankees. The Rays have already swept the Yankees this season, but now Gerrit Cole comes into the mix, returning to the rotation after missing 2025. But I want to talk more about Nick Martinez of the Rays, who has only allowed three runs between his last five starts. In his last start, he didn't allow any runs, but Miami won in 10 innings, 10-5. He’s had nine starts this year, and the Rays have won seven of them. Sure, I'll take plus money with the Rays.
Zach Agnos has pitched in 13 games this year for Colorado and makes his first Major League start at Arizona on Thursday night. We got a spot where Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Nolan Arenado are all hitting the ball well, and I think tonight, Marte will be the catalyst behind Arizona scoring six or seven runs themselves. He had eight hits in his last four games, including home runs in each of the last two games against the Giants. Marte was slumping, but his batting average went from .209 on Friday to .235 through Wednesday.
The Diamondbacks come off a sweep of the Giants and now have won four in a row as they play the Rockies for four games beginning tonight. They just played the Rockies in Denver last week, winning two out of three. The reason for the bet is Ketel Marte is on fire. He's gone over his hit total in his last four games. When Marte gets hot, he usually stays hot for 10 days. He's hit a home run in his last two games and has 8 hits in his last four, along with 7 runs and 7 RBI’s. We also get Corbin Carroll back after he took yesterday off. The top two players on the Diamondbacks are hitting. A Diamondbacks groove is coming.
Washington leads baseball with 32 overs on the season, or 68.1% of their games, but they're going to have some resistance today as the wind is blowing in from right-center field at 10 mph with a 60% chance of rain by 5:00 p.m.(ET). Washington is only 25-25 on the season, but they produce 11.46 runs per game, part of which is allowing 5.88 per game. They've met the Mets six times this season, and all six went over the total. David Peterson faced Cade Cavalli on April 29th, and the Nationals won 14-2, going over the posted total of 7. I'm going over on this game.
What are we doing with these Tampa Bay prices, 30 cents too cheap against the Orioles? The Orioles have 21 wins on the season, and the Rays have 32 wins and an 18-5 record in home games. They sweep teams, that's what this team does. The first two games of the series have been just like Wednesday's game, where the price is obscenely short. Shane McClanahan should have been a $1.75 favorite on Monday, but he was $1.44. Kyle Bradish got too much respect on Tuesday for the Orioles and lost 4-1. And now today, the Rays are less than $1.20? This is a team that is plus-1320 in profit margin, and May isn't even over yet. Rays to win.
The Astros are 4th in baseball with a .250 batting average, and they've gone over the total 28 times for 59.6% of their games, but over the last 6 days, they've stayed under every game while batting only .207. Today I like the over 8.5 at Minnesota because Lance McCullers is on the mound, and he's gone over the total in seven of his eight starts. He's allowed 32 runs in 39 innings this season for a 6.86 ERA. The wind is blowing out to right field at 15 mph. McCullers instigates this over.
The Rays beat the Orioles 16-6 on Monday, and it should be no surprise that the Orioles have the 29th-ranked pitching staff holding opponents to a 4.97 ERA. Kyle Bradish had a nice performance against the Yankees in the 7-0 win six days ago, where he lasted 6 innings, but they lost his previous three starts. The Rays have won three of the last four starts by Griffin Jax, who has pitched over four innings in his last two starts. The part-time reliever didn't allow any runs in his last start against Toronto in five innings. Rays to win.
Pitching matchup mismatch at Tampa Bay as the O’s have lost the last four starts by left-hander Trevor Rogers, including his last three by four runs or more. Tampa's cheap today. Shane McClanahan hasn't allowed a run in his last four starts, with Tampa Bay winning all four. The Rays lead the American League with a 30-15 record this season, including a 16-5 home record. They have a three-game lead in the AL East over the Yankees and have gone 12-3 in the first 15 games of May. Rays to win.
The Reds and Phillies both have the same record at 24-23, but each team is going in different directions lately. Cincinnati had a hot start this season, but they’ve been struggling lately, losing 12 of their last 16. The Phillies have won their last four games, including a weekend sweep of the Pirates, and since Don Mattingly was named manager, they have been hot, with a 15-4 record. Over the last 15 days, the Phillies pitching staff has produced a 2.81 ERA, which is 4th in baseball. Reds left-hander Nick Ladolo has had two rough outings this year, allowing nine runs in his first two starts. Phillies find a way to win.
The Rockies have lost the last three starts by left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has allowed 17 combined runs in the losses. He also allowed six home runs, and all three losses went over the total. What I'm most excited about is the weather in Denver, which is expected to be 81° with winds at 9 mph blowing out to left field and a 10% chance of precipitation. Arizona should also help out with the scoring, as Merrill Kelly has allowed 20 runs over his last four starts, losing three of them. Just the over in Friday night's game.
2026 has started rough for the Giants, who are 18-25 and one game out of last place in the NL West, but when they play their heated rival, the Dodgers, their records are thrown out the window. The Giants have won four out of six against the Dodgers this year, and they look to win the four-game series with a win tonight. The Giants have played well for the last week, winning four of their last six against the Pirates and Dodgers. Landen Roupp starts for the Giants, and he beat the Dodgers 3-1 this season on April 21. The Dodgers have lost three of Emmet Sheehan's last four starts, and they also lost the last time he faced the Giants, 3-1. Giants to win.
We've got a nice pitching matchup today with Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays facing Drew Rasmussen of the Rays. They just met six days ago in Tampa Bay, and the Rays won 4-3, but the game went over the total of 6.5. Today the total is 7, and it's still an under play. The Rays have gone under in 12 of their last 14 games. Gausman has gone over the total of his last five starts, but I still think this one stays under as well. Just the under.
The Yankees have won the last nine meetings with the Orioles, including a sweep last week when the Yankees won by five runs or more in every game. That spells good news if looking to bet the run line in this series, but the split isn't as big as preferred, seeing how they're -150 to win by one and only +110 to win by two or more. The Orioles have the 27th-ranked pitching staff, posting a 4.74 ERA, and they allow 5.4 runs a game. It's 63° with no chance of rain in Baltimore, with the wind swirling and will be blowing out the right field by 8:00 (ET). This looks like a good Yankees and over scenario.
The Reds have lost eight games in a row, the first seven on the road, and then last night losing 10-0 at home to the Astros. Chase Burns has been tasked with halting the slump, even though the Reds have lost three of his last five starts. The Astros have won all four starts by Spencer Arrighetti, with him allowing only five runs and one home run total. The Astros have won four of their last six games, and it's hard for me to believe that a team that has lost eight in a row would be favored by so much over one of the Astros' best starters. I'll take the Astros again.