Probably safe in saying that the Pirates will cash for us in the early game currently leading by nine runs so will go ahead and spin that $$ into this to close out the first half (no Sunday night game). Toronto's Kevin Gausman is 2-4 with a 5.57 ERA away - and a few Padres led by Fernando Tatis Jr. (8-for-20, two HR) have good splits off Gausman. Jays leadoff hitter George Springer is sitting. End of a long West Coast trip as well for Toronto.

I think we have reached the point where Paul Skenes has value. He does not look 100% right but says he's healthy. And with the break coming, you'd think his fastball would be dialed to 11 with a week off. All-Star Brewers catcher William Contreras is sitting. Skenes dominated the Brew Crew on April 24. Counterpart Robert Gasser -- I like to call him Bob Gas -- is nothing special. It was originally to be Jacob Misiorowski and I'd sure have liked to have seen him vs. Skenes but apparently Brewers manager Pat Murphy is a big Grinch and decided to skip the Miz's turn. That's something the Bucs better take advantage of as it's a huge break.

What a wacky week. I should be way up but a bunch of three-run bullpen implosions. Not four runs, not two. Three. Really never seen anything like that. I feel like Jack Tripper's pushy neighbor: Larry Dallas or Mr. Roper, pick your poison, who just won't leave me alone. Well Janet ... Kyle Bradish better at home and Royals starter Noah Cameron worse away. #regalebeagle

I think if any of you know me that there are better ways to deal with this, but yeah I'll eat this number for these purposes. I do want that hook, although don't get me started on Friday's utter crushing bullpen nonsense. Jackson Chourio is not in the Milwaukee lineup -- which in theory makes this even more likely to be a one-run game. And Braxton Ashcroft (9-3, 3.24 ERA) has been the ace of the Bucs lately, not Mr. Livvy Dunne. I'm getting a little perturbed with MLB honestly. Guess 3-run leads in the ninth don't matter this week. So we shall see how this goes if I play another today.

Really solid runline price on the Nationals considering they were off Thursday -- thus a full bullpen -- and the Yanks were not. Plus, Washington leads the majors in OPS vs. lefties and faces a mediocre one in Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.29 ERA). Spain money going into this ....

Ideally I avoid the Giants through the Trade Deadline (or at all) because they will sell and that team just isn't good. But pitcher Robbie Ray is pretty good, especially at home: 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA in nine starts. Ray will be playing somewhere else by Aug. 4. Colorado pitcher Tanner Gordon is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA in two starts against the Giants this season. Doubt I'm awake for this result ....

Wyatt Langford has been activated off the IL for the Rangers, so that's a plus. Texas pitcher Nate Eovaldi is on one of his good runs at 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA over his past four, but we will know Top 1 where his control is. If the leadoff guy walks, uh-oh. Halos pitcher Reid Detmers is regressing ahead of a likely trade.

The Red Sox are rolling but it's a getaway travel day for them and that lineup today is quite lame on paper -- Willson Contreras among those out . I mean, when Romy Gonzalez is your cleanup hitter. ... It's the season debut of pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who last pitched in the majors in 2024 and was awful with the Angels. White Sox counterpart Anthony Kay is 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA at home.

Drew Rasmussen is a stud but why push it past six innings short of utter dominance? The righty is capable, having gone seven innings four times this year, including once vs. New York. But Rasmussen lasted only five last time out in Houston as he was knocked around. Maybe he needs the break like a lot of guys do. Another reason not to push Rasmussen past six innings unless his pitch count is like 75. The SL model has 5.3 innings, which would be great, but I expect 6.0 on the number.

Welp, I'm gonna put my head in the alligators' mouth again -- that's what we say instead of lions down here, and sadly it's somewhat a daily ritual/fun pastime for many -- on this matchup. The Brewers are just such a well-coached machine and have been for years. Swept that DH on Tuesday. Major respect, but no Brice Turang tonight is big. The Cards' Michael McGreevy has a 1.96 ERA at home and this trends toward a low-scoring game opposite Kyle Harrison (2.82 ERA overall but 4.68 away) so +1.5 should be very much in play but hopefully not even necessary. The price certainly was a big selling point.

For whatever reason, I have not been on the Nationals train hardly at all this season as I keep expecting them to fade. But maybe they are legit WC contenders. The most profitable pitcher in baseball (+1175) has been Washington's Foster Griffin, who goes tonight. He's due for major regression most likely but hopefully not yet. Houston has lost four straight outings for Spencer Arrighetti and he was hit hard in three. The Astros' bullpen might be missing Josh Hader (I truly doubt he can go) and few other key guys due to recent usage.

Seattle's George Kirby is a fine pitcher and might throw six strong ... and the game is still tied. Kirby generally speaking has been worse away from Seattle if not so much this year. I basically make this game a pick'em on the side so feel this is fairly generous just on Kirby himself to get a W. It's not like he plays on the Dodgers. Kirby has failed to win eight of his past 11.

So, so tough to sweep a road DH in the majors, especially at a good division rival. The Brewers will attempt that after a 4-3 comeback win in the opener. Closer Trevor Magill probably isn't available at all today after pitching Sunday and Monday, and the team's other great bullpen arm in Aaron Ashby (12 wins!) likely can't pitch Game 2 after throwing an inning in the opener. And I'm certainly not very high on starter Robert Gasser (1-3, 4.54 ERA), who was only called back up from the minors to pitch the nightcap. I lean a STL win but will not turn down a reasonable runline on a home dog.

If Tarik Skubal is dealing, sure he could go a full nine. But I think we all now believe the Tigers are going to trade their ace lefty. So to me it would be criminal to push him past six innings short of just utter domination and small pitch count, because the dude already spent several weeks on the IL with elbow troubles. In four starts back, since not more than six innings or 94 pitches. The Tigers also were off Monday so every reliever is available. The A's hit lefties well, ranking eighth in OPS against them, and have been a much better road club. So get that Skubal pitch count up. The model has six IP exactly and clearly that's what I'm hoping.

Still absolutely steaming over two Monday bullpen implosions in Atlanta and Los Angeles that were mega-costly to me, although at least Dodgers pulled it out in extras. No point in lingering and I will say the last week before the break can always be really strange. Reasonable price on the Pale Hose considering they have the much better overall record than the Red Sox and are 28-14 at home. Very interesting pitching matchup between two very highly touted southpaw rookies in the Red Sox's Payton Tolle (4-6, 3.39 ERA) and Noah Schultz (2-5, 5.86 ERA). As you can see, Schultz hasn't been nearly as good but his home and night splits are much better. Tolle comes off his worst outing.