This play is little more than me thinking the Cardinals should not be favored on the road considering they are 2-11 away. Andre Pallante has a 6.14 ERA in three road starts. The Reds enter on a season-high-tying four-game winning streak and play at home for the first time since April 17. Their bullpen will be fully ready after Sunday's easy victory in Denver. Cincy's offense has been completely different since outfielder Austin Hays came off the IL on April 15 as Hays is raking.

The Orioles are massive disappointments and have lost six of seven, but maybe seeing the bitter rival Yankees for the first time this season wakes something up. The Bombers are just 7-6 away and had to play a doubleheader yesterday before traveling. Will Warren has a 5.91 ERA in three road starts. O's Japanese rookie Tomo Sugano has been solid at 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA. Cedric Mullins and Adley Rutschman should be back in the lineup after missing Sunday.

A couple of Twins regulars are out for rest/injury and they had to travel Sunday, while Cleveland didn't. Minnesota is 3-10 on the road. Bailer Ober has pitched twice away and has a 9.35 ERA. The Guards' Gavin Williams is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA at home this year and had good splits in 2024 vs. Minnesota. The Cleveland bullpen is in good shape in terms of high-leverage guys available.

Even with the Padres slumping sans Luis Arraez, they should not be getting +1.5 at home Sunday against awful Rays starter Zack Littell (0-5, 5.28). Manny Machado has excellent career splits off him. It's a natural letdown spot for the Rays anyways to concludes a West Coast trip. Their bullpen is taxed with every victory in this four game-winning streak close. Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez has allowed one earned run in 11 home innings this season.

Chilly day in Minneapolis and winds blowing in from right field. A couple of regulars are sitting for the Halos, who have totaled only five runs the first two of this series. Their starting pitcher, Jose Soriano, has a 1.77 ERA in three road starts and a 0.61 ERA in two starts during the day. The Twins' Joe Ryan has been good in three starts this year and not in two. Here's hoping for the former. No Angels have particularly good splits off him. Not a big fan of that Twins lineup today, either. Mickey Gasper and DaShawn Keirsey?

Ace Tarik Skubal starts for the Tigers, and the Orioles have a pretty watered-down lineup today with Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins out vs. the reigning AL Cy Young winner. Not that the Detroit lineup is all that great, but I'll sure be surprised if the Tigers don't score a couple of runs in the first five off struggling O's starter Dean Kremer (6.84 ERA overall, 8.24 away).

Playing in Denver always inflates these hit prices, and while Matt McLain is a good player he hasn't gotten going yet batting just .169 on the year and .122 this month -- with a single two-hit game in April while playing essentially every day. He has not previously seen Rox starter Antonio Senzatela.

Do I like this as much as I did on Friday (ppd.)? Not quite because the Orioles were on no rest and the Tigers were rested. But now we are getting Detroit +1.5 when I don't think whatsoever that should be the case as we weren't on Thursday. What changed? I jump on mistakes regardless of pricing. Brandon Young (6.75 ERA) starts for the Birds vs. one of my favorite 2025 guys in the Tigers' Casey Mize (2.22 ERA). Listed pitchers.

I'm looking forward to seeing Paul Skenes pitch back in his hometown tonight and definitely want to have a play ... and yeah this is high. But obviously if he throws five innings of one-run ball, we win. Seems reasonable. I don't think +1.5 should be offered is really what this is.

The Rays come off back-to-back extra-inning games in Arizona so their bullpen is pretty well shredded. It's also the first road start of the season for Shane Baz, so that's always a minor adjustment. San Diego's Michael King is 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in three home starts. The Dads are 12-1 at home.

I was in mid-type when I saw Thomas Casale posted same play. If Jose Berrios vs. Aaron Judge were a famous one-sided sports rivalry, Berrios is the Washington Generals and AJ the Harlem Globetrotters. Or I guess if you want to go Canada-USA beef: Drake-Kendrick Lamar. I have no idea what that means ... but apparently Lamar is winning and that's Judge against Berrios (who is also struggling this year overall): 1.346 OPS in 34 at-bats with two doubles and five homers. I don't really do HR props and am just fine with a ground-rule double in the bottom of the first so I can then ignore this game.

Tuesday's Orioles-Nationals moneyline seemed baffling with Baltimore favored despite an awful starting pitcher in Dean Kremer. And that was an easy +1.5 win on Washington. More of the same here with lefty Cade Povich (6.38 ERA) scheduled. The O's have lost his past three. When we faded the Orioles on Tuesday and they were shut out, we told you they absolutely can't hit lefties (.484 OPS). The Nats start a good one in MacKenzie Gore (1.50 ERA at home in two starts). Listed pitchers only.

Don't know if you read the daily newsletter, but it went out about an hour ago, and in it I looked at this game simply as the season debut of Brewers pitcher Tobias Myers. I said in there I had no strong opinion for a play in but just changed my mind with two of the Brewers' best players, Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, taking a seat in the getaway game -- no Contreras behind the plate also may mean the Giants run wild as he could be MLB's best in terms of caught stealing. Should make things much easier for SF pitcher Landon Roupp, who allowed one run over six in his lone home start so far in 2025.

I don't really trust the Royals offense much, but it sure looks like a massive starting pitching mismatch in Game 1 with Colorado's German Marquez (0-3, 8.27 ERA) opposed by Kansas City ace Cole Ragans (2.55 ERA in three day starts). All we may need is one Royals run regardless. Alliteration is fun!

Already on the Red Sox ML and I think it's quite possible that Garrett Crochet throws five shutout innings today against Seattle, and counterpart Bryan Woo is capable of holding the Sox to 1-2 runs in that span. No weather concerns and not remotely hot in Boston yet.