Matt's Past Picks
Will Joe Carter be in the building? Game 6s in Toronto, just saying. I will not be playing a Game 7 if there is one as will simply enjoy that -- it's no secret I root for Canadian teams for the most part in the US sports. Don't love fading Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but as just came up from JBogs in the Discord Channel, why are the Jays at home solidly cheaper +1.5 than the L.A. moneyline? They shouldn't be. No team dominated at home this season quite like Toronto. And Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman is no slouch. They have the better bullpen without question. And elimination games often are one-run, low-scoring matchups. Best-case scenario: Dodgers by a run tonight, Blue Jays on Saturday.
Why not at this price as I'm not getting any good options on the actual game result (i.e. -1 or Dodgers not bat B9). The Dodgers need and want distance out of Blake Snell as Manager Dave Roberts does not trust his bullpen, nor should he. I also think L.A. might light up Jays rookie Trey Yesavage early on in just his third career road start and first in many weeks. So ideally Snell is up 3-0 or something after five, and he cruises for an inning or two more before getting pulled for possible relief duty in a Game 7 if necessary. No George Springer again for the Jays, presumably, and he's a rare guy with good career splits off Snell.
I really was hoping for a -1 option this time -- it's what I will play. I think last night's utterly crazy game showed why I don't like -1.5, especially when we don't have ghost runner nonsense in the playoffs. I don't believe there's any shot that career playoff superstar George Springer plays tonight for the Jays after leaving last night injured. And Bo Bichette can barely move. Can we even doubt Shohei Ohtani at all as he returns to the mound? Jays counterpart Shane Bieber has been quite average at best in these playoffs. Both bullpens are wrecked after 18 innings.
Was hoping for an opening of -1 on the Dodgers via BetRivers but no dice. They probably get hammered by the public back at home Monday for Game 3 so will take this now before it gets north of -200 (already there at DK). Just won't do -1.5. Jays starter Max Scherzer has had an amazing career -- the eye thing always freaks me out a little -- and is a first-ballot Hall of Famer if this is his last outing. But I don't trust him at all these days at age 41 and after a 5.19 ERA in the regular season. His RS road splits were significantly worse and he was just OK (four walks in 5.2 IP) in his ALCS start in Seattle.
Okie Dokie, let's run this back. For the record, I'm the only SL expert who got Game 1 right including props. Not really my style to say that. You either follow or don't. I'd like to say it's because I am Wile E. Coyote, super genius. Nope, I just like the Jays as a fan and home teams cheaper at +1.5 than a road away ML even if I tend to think the Dodgers win Game 2. 4-3 works.
I might be the biggest Toronto homer in the CBS Sports family. Long, personal story. So I'm definitely rooting for the Jays (but like L.A. in six). Blake Snell has been incredible in these playoffs for the Dodgers, but the Jays have been the best home team in the majors and apparently are getting Bo Bichette back for the first time in several weeks. Toronto was great against lefties in the RS. LA also will be down its best lefty reliever in Alex Vesia for personal reasons. Are you familiar with the term LOOGY? (Not teenage snot-related) Vesia is their main LOOGY, even if one-out pitchers have been diminished with the new rules. Might matter in late innings. And I don't even need a win.
Certainly not naive to how high-scoring this series has been, but Game 7s usually are low scoring simply as both teams can throw a parade of arms out there with the season on the line and no usage worries. Just quickly looking from the LCS Round (both), five of the past six Game 7s, for example, would land Under this. What's the O/U of total pitchers we may see here? 15.5? Randy Johnson and Dave Stieb may each throw a third of an inning. Man, wish I was a Seattle sports fan on Monday with the M's playing the biggest game in franchise history and the Seahawks home on MNF vs. Houston. Can't remember the last time I had a night like that.
Obviously all hands on deck for the Blue Jays to try and extend their season, and I'd sure like to see a Game 7 on Monday. Toronto was dominant at home this season, especially offensively, until losing the first two of this set. Struggle to see three straight home defeats. Just quickly looking, but I don't see that they have done that since May. George Springer is expected to play after taking a pitch off his kneecap in Game 5. Don't know that I'd play this if not -- I'd then lean Under.
This series has been the fan/betting conundrum, and I have no idea what to think. The ALCS has gone bananas in recent years: Dating to Game 3 of the 2022 ALCS, the road team has now won 15 of the last 18 games. I don't think "all-in" is accurate here, but I'm gonna just lay most cards on the table and if lose say goodbye MLB 2025. I don't much care personally about the four left otherwise (ideally Toronto wins it) so will just enjoy the WS as a fan if so. I do think Seattle wins tonight, especially with the excellent Bryan Woo in reserve and in potentially its last home game. But I'll always take insurance and rather surprised getting it.
I don't know what's happening right now in MLB after home teams largely dominated the first two rounds. Now they can't buy a win. Happy as a fan overall that the Jays got Game 3 to at least extend this to five. But 41-year-old Max Scherzer is no longer a very good pitcher. Tonight may well be his final MLB start. First-ballot HOFer. Seattle's Luis Castillo, meanwhile, was terrific in the ALDS and had another typically solid year. Ideal scenario: M's win here, Jays tomorrow to send it back to Toronto.
When road teams win in the MLB playoffs, I usually don't win $$$. So this LCS round has not been great. And I personally hope the Jays win tonight to give us a series, and if +1.5 was decently priced would take it (alas, it's not). But I can't fade George Kirby and Seattle's far superior bullpen at home -- since the trade deadline and including the playoffs, the M's have the best home mark in the majors. Toronto is just not hitting thus far with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 0-for-7. Shut him down, you usually shut down Toronto. The Jays were 40-41 away during the regular season (did sweep three in Seattle) and 1-1 in the ALDS.
Pretty solid Monday overall for picks other than Toronto-wise times two. Rough day up there. All I care about here is the Brewers hanging by a run again after last night's very entertaining 2-1 loss. Thought I was toast at +1.5 when Dodgers made it 2-0 in T9. It's Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Freddy Peralta tonight, so another 2-1 score would not surprise. Peralta was almost unbeatable at home during the RS with a 1.77 ERA. I think we see The Miz tonight too after not Game 1.
Terrific price at +1.5 on the Brewers considering they are, you know, at home and were 6-0 in the regular-season series vs. LA. Blake Snell is terrific on the mound for the Dodgers but had some hiccups on the road during the regular season. And the Brewers already have seen several lefty starters this postseason, so that can only help a little. I much prefer Milwaukee's bullpen as well led by The Miz, and we probably see him tonight at some point. The fans should be nuts in the franchise's first NLCS game in seven years.
Major kudos to the Mariners for winning Game 1 at perhaps the hardest place to play in MLB right now and with the M's seemingly as such a disadvantage in terms of rested arms, etc. And I can't say I love backing a rookie making only his fifth big-league start today, but Toronto's Trey Yesavage hasn't looked like a rookie. Seattle's Logan Gilbert is excellent but was 3-4 with a 4.74 away during the year and a fair amount of Jays have good splits off him led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
So, so bummed for all my Michigan peeps with that crushing 15-inning loss in Game 5 of the ALDS in Seattle, but it will be nice to see a new AL winner with the M's never reaching a World Series and the Jays not for decades. Because that Game 5 vs. Detroit went so long (loving no ghost runner), the Seattle pitching staff is fairly wrecked even after Saturday off. Plus obviously long travel, etc. It just all sets up so well, it would appear, for Toronto to take Game 1 especially with Bo Bichette likely back. And I do like Jays in the series so will personally play Toronto Game 1/series double as I did Las Vegas Aces ($$).

