Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Huge number, yep, but absolutely, positively Arizona should not be getting this. So I'll throw the Marlins money into this one and at worst an even for the day. Although yeah I think this wins. I don't really understand the pricing to be honest and obviously I am paying out the nose for that insurance. I'm fine with it.
Holy Moly, I need to argue with the missus and storm out angry more often to Mom's as I raked Friday. Funny how when you don't check pitch-by-pitch do well as opposed I don't think I have ever checked a game live where the team I am betting against has not immediately scored. Don't get me started on OT/extra innings. But an optimism Train to Busan today, although that train didn't work out (great flick). I could walk up to 10 people on South Beach and ask them if they know who Marlins pitcher Max Meyer (7-0, 2.85 ERA) is and four would speak German (wearing brown socks), four would say "no comprendo" and the other two punch me. Meyer has been awesome.
Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski, a name I simply cannot type correctly until the third try, is so fun to watch, and I'm not really into the heat (or homers). But he's a lightning bolt. Only -129 to simply not win at the team with the second-best record in baseball? Yep. I have nightmares the Miz's arm rips off someday throwing so hard in a Texas Chainsaw Massacre-type deal (perhaps don't run toward the shed of chainsaws). Sadly, tonight isn't against Chris Sale like it was supposed to be, but I address that in my CBS Sports SGP on this game.
If know me at all, will know that I try to have an opinion on these Cubs standalone Friday matinees. Their best advantage in these -- I call it the "Bueller" as in Ferris not Walker -- is when they were off Thursday and the other team was not. Tough to fly in and play that quick turnaround. It doesn't happen that often, but it's the case today for the Jays. I'd probably go higher if it weren't excellent Toronto pitcher Kevin Gausman. But a few relievers behind him are likely not available and he's often not the same away. I hope the Cubs walk nine times against Gausman. "Nine times!?" -- see I'm doing my Ferris Bueller principal Ed Rooney thing. So awesome.
So I have been doing OK as I have avoided the "swoon." This way up, this way down. Not too much either way. Fine. This is criminally fair on the Rays, who are crazy-good at home. Decent price as it's far from Tampa Bay's best pitcher (Griffin Jax), but it's not like Nationals fans travel. Do Nationals fans exist?
Aaron Nola is not having a good year for the Phils but usually pitches well against the Mets -- and counterpart Sean Manaea is certainly nothing to write home about. A lot of Phillies hit Manaea pretty hard career and such a cheap number for the better team at home. Dunno, it's hard for me to see as I just got back from the eye doctor. Everything has that "Maddie halo" from Moonlighting in the 1980s. Maybe I'm dead, but I still taste old Slim Jim in the gums and I really hope that's not in the afterlife. Half unit.
Reasonably fair price on Texas getting +1.5 at home as the Rangers try to avoid the sweep to a Twins team that is 15-21 away. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is the better pitcher in this matchup but his road splits much worse (3.60 ERA). Tough to trust inconsistent young Jack Leiter for the Rangers but Twins walk at a below-average rate while striking out at an above-average level so that may work right into the wild righty's wheelhouse. Leiter does have a 3.38 ERA in four day starts. We only need a one-run loss and the model has Texas winning slightly.
Pair of lefties today from the desert -- LA is 8-12 vs. southpaws and Arizona 12-6 while ranking No. 6 in OPS against them. Diamondbacks pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a 1.93 ERA in seven home outings. The one good thing about Tuesday's blowout loss was the bullpen getting reset behind him. The Halos' Sam Aldegheri (2-1, 2.12) has good numbers in limited action this season but has bounced back and forth from the minors over his career, and it's his first road start of 2026. Arizona to not bat bottom nine at -115 is a pretty nice alternative if available to you.
Washington has won three in a row by multiple runs and starts the third-most profitable pitcher in the majors tonight in southpaw Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.46 ERA). This most likely is not sustainable for the 30-year-old journeyman but you would be up $860 if you bet $100 on the Nats to each of his outings so far. No Royals have seen him career, and Kansas City fell to a truly hysterical 3-16 against lefty starters with Monday's four-run loss in D.C. (we cashed).
Certainly not close to my favorite Brewers pitcher in Robert Gasser (0-3, 6.38 ERA), but his home splits are fairly better and the Brew Crew have a fully rested excellent bullpen behind him. This is mainly fading the Guardians now without All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez for the foreseeable future. He was placed on the injured list Sunday and might miss eight weeks. Crushing news for the team -- but helps the White Sox in the Central! Tuesday starter Slade Cecconi has a 5.21 road ERA.
Over the weekend, the Royals lost one of their better hitters in Vinnie Barbarino ... err Pasquantino for 4-6 weeks. They can't hit much as is and are 3-15 vs. southpaws. K.C. is also 10 games under .500 away and goes with Mitch Spence on the mound -- Spence is 11-16 with a 4.91 ERA in his three seasons in the Show and was only just called back up. It's lefty Andrew Alvarez (3.70 ERA) for the Nats -- although he might not be out there more 4-5 innings as essentially an extended opener. Washington has won two straight and six of nine overall. Might be the first time have played it all season as a ML favorite. Might be the last if don't win.
This seems like a too-cheap price for Monday's series opener from the desert. Arizona, which might get Lourdes Gurriel back from the IL, hasn't been that great of late but has played a pretty tough and road-heavy schedule. Monday starter Ryne Nelson has largely dominated in his past four home outings. The Angels are quite bad, especially away (12-23). Rookie pitcher Walbert Urena (2.44 ERA) has been a nice surprise and probably why this number is low, but his road splits are considerably worse.
I will be honest with you here. If one of these Rockies-Athletics Under 14 plays was going to lose this weekend from Sin City, it's probably this one because of the 12:05 local start time. Just scorching hot and yep winds blowing out again. I am trying to think of what it would take for me to go watch a Rockies-A's game in Las Vegas in that heat at high noon with no roof (the new A's stadium of course will have one). Maybe Belinda Carlisle's phone number gets it done but doubt that monetarily anything less than 2K and a comped night at the Caesars Palace Nobu Villa (only 40K) would. The starting pitchers really don't matter. The bullpens will decide it.
I am not one of those people who just auto-bets Paul Skenes or the Miz (I will address him this week in the newsletter when he starts next) or Tarik Skubal or Shohei (pitcher version) but see now we are getting value because Skenes is winless in a career-high five straight games. I would venture to guess that the lookahead lines -- those don't exist in MLB but I have trading experience so a general idea -- would be about -250 a couple of weeks ago. I feel like this is an overreaction number.
Sadly, the Blue Jays just announced that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out against the Yankees, so I no longer like Toronto +1.5 that much. Pretty weak sitting him in a marquee matchup against the AL Cy Young favorite with a team off day coming Monday anyways. So I'm essentially replacing that with this. The Cards have lost two straight one-run games so their bullpen is taxed. NL Rookie of the Year favorite JJ Wetherholt is out. That entire lineup looks rather garbage to me. If the Twins weren't starting struggling lefty Connor Prielipp (2-4, 5.15 ERA) I might just play the ML. But Prielipp has been better at home (2-2, 3.76 ERA).