

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Matt's Picks
One key hitter is out for each team. ...
The Giants are not in a good spot. ...
The Astros catch a pitching break. ...
San Diego isn't great vs. lefties in ranking 27th in the majors in OPS and didn't solve that at the trade deadline. It faces a good southpaw in Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez (10-3, 2.48 ERA). The Padres haven't seen him in 2026. They go with utterly average Randy Vasquez (6-6, 4.45 ERA). The Snakes' lineup is a bit longer tonight with the trade addition of lefty-hitting Lars Nootbaar as he's in the starting lineup. Nootbaar hits righties very well, so hopefully he makes a big impression right away vs. Vasquez. Corbin Carroll has great splits off him.
Expected Atlanta to swing bigger ahead of the deadline but the Braves were fairly quiet. Perhaps the biggest piece acquired, outfielder Lane Thomas from the Royals, makes his debut tonight. But they didn't get a top starting pitcher that was badly needed. Atlanta has won five straight. The Marlins traded away No. 1 catcher Liam Hicks (.282, 14 HR, 62 RBI) to Tampa Bay. Tonight's starting pitcher in Ryan Gusto has a 6.23 road ERA in 17.1 innings.
Thought Cleveland quietly got much better at the deadline in improving a weak offense with Jo Adell and Nate Lowe. Nothing fancy, but two pretty good hitters who both should be available Tuesday. Starting pitcher Joey Cantillo is a solid 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA and .231 OBA at home this year. The Mets as expected sold big at the deadline, and their bullpen is especially weaker. Outfielder Tyrone Taylor, who had really been hitting well since the start of July, also was shipped out. Doubt the team has much of a pulse the rest of the way under an interim skipper.
The Phils are the anchor to my Newsletter Parlay of the Day but just on the money line there, which is too high to post here. But good news in that regard as All-Star James Wood is indeed out for the Nats. So I'll go ahead and throw a half-unit down on this even though Jesus Luzardo hasn't been nearly as good at home (better lately). But with all the recent trades and injuries, that Washington lineup is so much weaker. And Zack Littell (7-8, 4.94 ERA) is the primary pitcher tonight. Luis Arraez is making his Philly debut and thus it's arguably the Phillies' best lineup of 2026.
Late lineups today for an obvious reason. These teams made a trade today with the Jays sending outfielder Daulton Varsho to the Astros, and he's in the lineup against his former team immediately. Not sure that Toronto closer Louis Varland is available tonight; he wasn't traded but threw 30 pitches Sunday. Former closer Jeff Hoffman was traded today, so that unit is thin tonight. Houston's Josh Hader wasn't needed Sunday so he'll be good to go. Astros starter Cristian Javier has been quite hit or miss in an injury-plagued season but threw five shutout innings last time out.
Philly pitcher Aaron Nola is having a very down season, but this is about the Nationals -- who will use a bullpen game Monday -- telling their locker room we aren't pushing for the playoffs on Sunday by trading infielder Luis Garcia to the Yankees. Garcia is having a huge year, leading the National League in slugging percentage (.560) and batting .283 with 23 home runs, 76 RBI and an .873 OPS. Obviously significantly weakens a Washington lineup that not long ago traded another infielder having a career year in Curtis Mead. Maybe CJ Abrams goes Monday, and this number would really be value. As it is, Washington has lost five straight. The Phils will only be adding ahead of the deadline.
If this weren't Sunday Night Baseball, not sure I do it but the Dodgers sure owe us from this weekend. I was furious when saw last night's starting lineup and no Mookie Betts or Kyle Tucker when both were healthy; frankly I wasn't surprised they lost. But I do find it hard to imagine L.A. being swept at home by a possible World Series opponent and on the same day the team got Tarik Skubal. So, yeah, this is largely an intangibles bet -- and all the healthy Dodgers regulars are in there. Natural flat spot for the Sox as they have won the series and it's the end of a West Coast trip. Good spot for -1 to bring down if you have available.
Clubs going in opposite directions with Houston having won five straight to take over the AL West lead and Texas having dropped four in a row. The Rangers are also four games under .500 away. Kumar Rocker is 0-2 this year vs. the Astros with a 9.28 ERA and .279 OBA in two starts spanning 10.2 innings. On the other side, Peter Lambert just had a 1.88 ERA in five July starts and is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA vs. Texas -- but the Rangers are hitting only .143 off him. Josh Hader pitched Saturday but only a handful of throws so he should be available to close if needed.
Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller has gone at least five full innings in six of his past seven, and his road and day splits are both better than home/night in 2026. He also has fared well vs. the Reds this season at 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two outings, going at least six in both. Curious why this is being offered honestly, maybe Keller is on a pitch count I'm not aware of. Weather is not all that hitter-friendly today in Cincy and the model has Keller at 5.9 innings.
I don't have many life "mantras," but the Dodgers not losing back-to-back home games might be one. Great win by Boston on Friday night, no doubt. Little bit different going from facing L.A.'s Cole Irvin, who sells Skechers in the offseason and was Friday's primary pitcher (wish I had known that as it wasn't supposed to be him), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who goes Saturday. Double-Y is definitely not in the Al Bundy shoe-selling category. Likely that Sox All-Star Willson Contreras sits after taking a pitch to the head last night.
Seattle wrecked Friday's parlay of the day -- blowing a late 2-1 lead, so that hurt -- but I feel pretty good coming back to the Mariners with Logan Gilbert (8-3, 3.44 ERA) on Saturday. The one good thing from that Minnesota rally was the Twins using all their high leverage relievers. And Saturday starter Connor Prielipp is 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA away.
Actually thought about driving up to see this game but just too dang lazy. Well, I might have if the Rays played somewhere fun like Wrigleyville or the Battery in Atlanta and not in an abandoned Men's Wearhouse in sleepy St. Pete. Drew Rasmussen comes off his best start of the season for Tampa Bay, while Sox rookie Noah Schultz (he will follow an opener -- a position the Rays essentially invented) has a 7.03 road ERA. The Rays kill lefties like him at 22-10.


