Matt's Picks (1 Live)
A little chilly with some winds blowing in a second night in a row at Kauffman Stadium. Some full-game totals are down to 7.5 so this seems fair -- I wouldn't play lower and it's the only 4.5 we have. Royals supposed ace Cole Ragans has been just massacred on the road in 2026 but has a 0.75 ERA in 12.0 home innings. He had good numbers vs. the Guardians last year. Cleveland has managed only six total runs in a three-game skid. Southpaw Joey Cantillo allowed one earned over 5.2 vs. KC on April 8 and if he does similar again, we should be golden.
The Phillies are rolling now and paid off for us nicely Tuesday via the newsletter. Cristopher Sanchez was so good that the bullpen is totally rested for Wednesday. So I don't see many reasons why it won't be another W behind Zack Wheeler. A's counterpart Jeffrey Springs was quite good his first four outings of the year but quite poor the past three. He also left his last one with an injury so might not even be 100% but has been cleared.
In some ways, this feels like a trap spot for the Rays ahead of a trip. But they are playing so well and the price so cheap, have to do a half unit. It's matchup of lefties in Patrick Corbin and Shane McClanahan. Corbin has been shockingly good of late for the Jays, but McClanahan hasn't allowed a run in his past two and is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in three home starts. Both these clubs are good vs. southpaws: Toronto 5-3 but Tampa Bay 7-1.
The Bucs start a West Coast trip tonight. Arizona has lost four straight but those were all away. The club is 9-6 at home. Eduardo Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home this season. Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler is a touted prospect but has had some major bouts of wildness in his rookie campaign and the team has lost four of the past five he has taken the mound. As you would expect for a young guy, his away splits (0-1, 5.93 ERA) are quite a bit worse.
This was not on my radar even with how well the Rays are playing and how strong Drew Rasmussen has been on the mound because Toronto pitcher Kevin Gausman has been quite good too. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is taking a seat for the Jays for the first time this season, so that's worth a half-unit. He hasn't hit for much power yet but is among league leaders with a .331 batting average. The totals were all too low ...
Mets-Rockies was postponed to no shock, so will sub in this play. I worry a bit about the Tigers being flat for a while with the Tarik Skubal news. But the D has Framber Valdez on the hill here, and this is exactly the kind of spot why he got big FA money. The team needs a good outing just for its collective psyche. Boston most likely will not have its top two relievers available in closer Aroldis Chapman (who has been unhittable) and setup man Garrett Whitlock as each has pitched the past two games with no day off. Primary starting pitcher Brayan Bello is 1-4 with a 9.12 ERA.
It's difficult beating a good pitcher in back-to-back outings. The White Sox did get to Angels ace Jose Soriano last time out on the South Side but I rather doubt they are good enough to do it again tonight in Anaheim. Although, Chicago pitcher Davis Martin has been shockingly good too at 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA. He ain't that good and Martin's road splits, while very strong, are significantly worse than at home.
You know, I understand this number on the surface but getting one of the majors' best offensive teams at home for plus-money at +1.5 is a have-to play (half). Loses, fine. Still the right play. The Dodgers haven't really looked that Dodger-ish of late anyways, although the pitching matchup Monday clearly favors them with Yoshinobu Yamamoto opposed by essentially an opener/bullpen day. Still, every Dodgers opener in a visiting park is like that team's World Series.
Boston rookie Payton Tolle has made two starts this year and went six innings in one but only 4.2 in the other because he was scuffling a bit with wildness. But Tolle is a top prospect for a reason and the Tigers have never seen him. Doesn't really look like very good scoring weather in Detroit tonight so if Tolle can keep his control he should be given every chance to earn his first big-league win. Our model has him at 5.5 innings. The Sox bullpen is a bit taxed so they could use some length from Tolle.
Will put my Tobias Harris Over 7.5 rebound cash half-unit play -- thank you for the rec, GeekServant via Discord (I tail you all plenty) -- on the SNB matchup and hope for the Detroit double. Jack Leiter was a touted prospect but it hasn't translated to MLB yet as the Texas starter has a 5.17 ERA overall and 5.87 away.
I would go ahead and play +2.5 as cheap as +1.5 is ... but for these purposes. Atlanta is obviously miles better, but it's the end of a trip. Ronald Acuna Jr. surely is out again and Spencer Strider hasn't pitched in the majors since last September off injury. Kyle Freeland (3.48 ERA) has been not terrible, which is about the best compliment you can give a Rockies pitcher most years.
Let's sneak this one in at the wire. SF is at the end of a trip and has lost them all on it. Just will be quick on this one to get it in.
Can't say I like this as much as I did yesterday's game, but Orioles starter Kyle Bradish has not been sharp this season. Consider a Ben Rice Over 1.5 total bases prop (3-for-5 with a dinger off Bradish career). What I may do is have a little fun and play this with a Kentucky Derby choice -- and it won't be favored Renegade on the post. The betting favorite on race day hasn’t won at Churchill Downs since 2018 (Justify). I like Further Ado at 6/1. There is my horse racing knowledge for 2026, but you will definitely want to read our picks from the excellent Gene Menez, Jeff Hochman and others for that. They seem to win every year.
Some home issues -- as a matter of fact, heck no I don't want to go see Jersey Boys tonight and there isn't enough liquor in the world, but have fun -- so a lighter day. I'm gonna pay for that (already did). Should the broken Mets be road favorites over anyone? Not sure that should be the case at least with Christian "Big Girls Don't Cry" Scott with a 6.75 ERA on the mound tonight. Can't say I think much of Halos starter Walbert Urena, either, but hence the +1.5.