The Boston Red Sox are a team that we have seen flip the switch quickly from poor stretches. One of their tenured pitchers in Brayan Bello has struggled his first two starts, but look for the Boston bats to get him run support early. A positive in this series for Boston is St. Louis has scored just four runs in two games. Tail Boston as they win their fourth out of their past five games.
The Cleveland Guardians lost in lopsided fashion yesterday to the Atlanta Braves, 11 to 5. What they have not done on the young season is lose consecutive games. This was the case even in their second series against the LA Dodgers. Parker Messick through two starts and eleven innings of work has given up just one solo shot home run. Take the Guardians to get back in the win column against veteran Martin Perez.
The Chicago Cubs played in a double header on Sunday, and then traveled for another road series yesterday against Tampa Bay. They lost 6 to 4, with the bullpen giving up two key runs in the seventh inning which has been a problem in their last two losses. The Rays after playing nine straight games on the road finally have their first home stand of the season. They get their second win in a row at home, and fourth win in a row overall. Back the short priced home favorite in the Rays.
The hitting conditions are not optimal today in a cold weather environment in Cleveland. We saw that impact the first game of today’s double header, which at post of this write up was 0-0 in the sixth inning. While Imanaga certainly should bounce back from a rough debut, he was prone to the home run ball against the Guardians lineup last season. On four hits allowed, three were home runs. Take the Guardians on the mispriced double header.
The New York Mets got back to .500 with their bats finally breaking out with ten total runs. The ten runs were more than the Mets had their prior four games combined. Now look for some consistency as the Mets have had the upper hand at Oracle Park, winning four out of the last five matchups over the Giants. This includes Clay Holmes start last July in which he gave up just one run. Back the Mets on the price drop down of twenty cents.
After an 0 and 2 start, the Tampa Bay Rays have cashed in consecutive games. That included taking game one yesterday over the Milwaukee Brewers, 3-2. That’s right in line of what we saw last season when Tampa Bay won the series over Milwaukee, with two one run wins of 4-3, and 3-2. Back the Rays as Shane McClanahan gets his first win since 2023.
Both the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates are 2-1 to the under to begin the season. Based on last year’s results, one would figure to take the under today. Both games against the Reds last year that Braxton Ashcraft started were 2-1 games, and Chase Burns had his best start of the season against Pittsburgh going 6 1/3 with ten strikeouts and one run allowed. In an early season divisional game, look for the familiarity against both pitchers to benefit the bats. Take the over.
As great as the Atlanta Braves were in spring training, everything is now reset to start their season. They were one of the worst teams to begin the year a season ago, where they started 0 and 7. Look for the pressure to start the year on a positive note, to derail game one against Kansas City when Chris Sale exits. Banking on late inning runs, or even an extra inning Royals win here. Tail KC.
The LA Dodgers did what they typically do in game two and that was bounce back from a loss. They are now 15-2 over their last seventeen games, making the side a tough assessment from a price stand point in game three. I went to the prop market where Mookie Betts has had a very quiet postseason since the Phillies series. He has cleared his total bases just once over the last seven games. Yet, two of his three hits against Max Scherzer have been extra base hits. Look for an early hit from Betts possibly a double, and a single later in the game. Take his total bases over for half a unit.
Recency bias can be hard to overlook in a crucial game seven to decide who goes to the World Series. The Toronto Blue Jays have captured that with winning three out of the past four games over Seattle. In fact they had game five in their grasp as well before a five run eighth inning from the Mariners. The turn of events was sparked in game three by Shane Bieber but look for this Mariners team to respond as they did in the ALDS against Detroit in game five. Seattle heads to the World Series.
The LA Dodgers picked up a pivotal game one NLCS victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night. Milwaukee has now lost three of its last four playoff games, and has scored three runs or less in all. That could be a big issue tonight with Freddy Peralta on the mound, as he has given up eight home runs over his last six starts. As we know playoff baseball is all about the now, and expect the Dodgers who lost all six regular season games against Milwaukee to go up 2-0 in the series. Take LA.
The top two pitchers in MLB in terms of wins are on the mound today for game one with Max Fried and Garrett Crochet. Pressure is on Fried to uphold the Yankees current eight game win streak. A player I expect to give Fried and the Yankees bullpen problems is Ceddanne Rafaela. Rafaela has had a hit in eight out of his last nine games, with four doubles. Take Rafaela over on his total bases prop.
The Houston Astros playoff chances continue to slip as they have lost five straight games. The Athletics themselves have defeated Houston in seven straight matchups. This included JT Ginn’s sharp performance on July 27th when he went six innings and allowed three hits and no runs. Take the home team in the Athletics to win their eighth straight over Houston.
The Milwaukee Brewers fell short last night in extra innings against the Padres. It marked their second consecutive loss, as they remain one game away from tying the franchise record in wins. During this season they have been stout at avoiding three game losing streaks, which has happened only twice since May 11th. Grab the Brewers tonight over the Padres.
We’ve seen the Houston Astros halt the momentum of the Texas Rangers in their current series, winning the first two matchups. Wednesday, with ace Jacob Degrom on the mound look for the tables to turn. Degrom has allowed three runs or less in all three starts this season against the Astros, including on September 6th when the Rangers gave him no run support. Take Texas as Degrom gets his thirteenth win of the season.