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Matt Snyder
Matt Snyder
Stick With What Works
Baseball-obsessed since a young child, a fan of gambling from nickel-and-dime poker as a teen to $5 blackjack as a broke college kid and eventually onto major sports betting, the transition always seemed inevitable for Matt Snyder. CBS Sports' longest-tenured baseball expert teams simple logic learned back from his baseball-playing days, such as "stick with what works," with extensive background analytics. He went 26-18 in the 2020 playoffs, including 8-4 in World Series bets.
LAST 8 MLB ML PICKS
+661
Record: 7-1
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Philadelphia 3 @ San Francisco 5 | 06/19 | 1:45 AM UTC

San Francisco -125

WIN

ANALYSIS: The Giants average about five runs per game at home this season and just scored 37 in four games. Sure, it was against the hapless Diamondbacks, but the Giants are hot and didn't have to travel for this. The Phillies run Vince Velasquez to the bump and he's posted an 8.25 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .300/.386/.600 against him in his last three starts. Johnny Cueto hasn't been exceptional or anything this year, but he's much more reliable at home. The Giants are 22-9 at home this year while the Phillies are 12-21 on the road. Why aren't the Giants more heavily favored?

+661 7-1 IN LAST 8 MLB ML PICKS

Chi. White Sox 1 @ Houston 2 | 06/19 | 12:10 AM UTC

Houston +101

WIN

ANALYSIS: The Astros have won 13 of their last 17 games, bludgeoning opponents during that stretch to the tune of a +56 run differential. They are 23-13 with a +51 run differential at home, too. And yet, they are home 'dogs. Why? Carlos Rodon, that's why. The White Sox are 8-3 in his starts this season and he has a 1.89 ERA. He has a no-hitter and flirted with a second one last time out. Seeing him deal wouldn't be surprising. The Astros, though, hit .286/.348/.459 against lefties and are one of the best contact-hitting teams in baseball. The White Sox are in a really tough stretch, too. Ride the home dog.

+661 7-1 IN LAST 8 MLB ML PICKS
+407 4-0 IN LAST 4 HOU ML PICKS

Oakland 5 @ N.Y. Yankees 3 | 06/18 | 11:05 PM UTC

Oakland +130

WIN

ANALYSIS: The Yankees are coming off a road sweep and might have turned the corner, but it's only three games. They are sending Jameson Taillon to the hill and he's been bad nearly all season, for the most part. He'll surely do better than his catastrophic outing last time out (0.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER), but he still isn't reliable. The Yankees are 4-8 in his starts this season. The A's, meantime, have won 12 of 14 with a +41 run differential in that time. They are 18-9 on the road. The righty-heavy Yankees face James Kaprielian, who has held righties to a .132/.231/.235 slash in his eight-game career to this point.

+661 7-1 IN LAST 8 MLB ML PICKS

L.A. Angels 6 @ Arizona 5 | 06/12 | 1:40 AM UTC

L.A. Angels -1.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Since May 2, the Diamondbacks have gone 5-30. They do return home after losing their 19th straight road game, but they aren't exactly good at home. They went 2-7 on their last homestand. They are hitting just .226/.298/.361 against right-handed pitching this season. Shohei Ohtani, a righty, starts for the Angels. Ohtani is in a nice groove on the mound right now and he's been more efficient of late, working deeper into games. Oh, and did anyone notice the Angels are hot? They've won five of six and 11 of 16. Ohtani dominates and the Angels cover the 1.5 run line rather easily.

+331 3-0 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS

Atlanta 3 @ Miami 4 | 06/11 | 11:10 PM UTC

Atlanta -1.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: We're going with the Braves' run line here. The Marlins have won three of five since their eight-game losing streak, but those wins came against the Pirates and the Road Rockies, who are terrible. The Braves have been incredibly inconsistent this season, but they still have far too much talent to be playing this poorly. They have, however, won four straight Charlie Morton starts, during which time he's pitched to a 2.74 ERA. Sandy Alcantara has been brilliant at home, but the Marlins haven't supported him much, going 2-4 in his home starts. Take the odds on the Braves winning by multiple runs.

+331 3-0 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS