If it feels like the team going up 3-0 usually sweeps the series, that's because it is what happens. MLB teams taking a 3-0 lead in best-of-seven series all-time are 31-9 in Game 4. The Yankees' offense is broken right now and it's mostly due to Aaron Judge. Luis Gil isn't good enough to get this kind of line against a loaded Dodgers' bullpen, either. The Dodgers roll.

The Tigers didn't score for the first 17 innings in the series and have only scored six runs total. The Guardians scored five runs in the first inning of the series and only have two since, now running with a 19-inning scoreless streak. There's exceptional pitching and poor defense in this series. Even an uptick in offense would keep us under, as the teams are only averaging 4.33 runs a game.

The Royals had a losing record this season when not playing the worst team in MLB history. The Yankees are much better and have now gone 6-2 against the Royals this year. Starter Carlos Rodon had a 2.20 ERA in September, so even if you like Cole Ragans better here in the pitching matchup, it's not a significant edge. I like the better team here and the juice isn't too bad.

The reason the Guardians are underdogs is that presumptive Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is starting for the Tigers. Everything else points to the Guardians, though, especially with their stellar bullpen having only pitched in one game in the last week. They'll hold the Tigers down again and if they have to score late to win, so be it. Guardians win here and we get plus money.

Gerrit Cole has a 2.15 ERA since skipping a start for rest in early August. He'll throw like a playoff ace. The Yankees' bullpen is rested and fixed (thanks to Luke Weaver). And the team overall is much better than the Royals. A multi-run win is the most likely outcome.

Zack Wheeler is gonna deal here against a Mets' lineup running mostly on fumes (also vibes, but that only goes so far against this rested pitching staff). It's also hard to trust Kodai Senga or the Mets' bullpen. As I love to say, the most likely scenario is a comfortable Phillies win.

Much is made about the days off ("rust vs. rest"), but I think it helps the Guardians, as they are so heavily reliant on a stellar bullpen. They are the better team and are amazing at home, too.

I like the way the Brewers pitching sets up better here with Tobias Myers over Jose Quintana and then both Devin Williams and Trevor Megill looking good in Game 2 without being overworked. The Mets were running on fumes and vibes, but didn't score after the second inning in Game 2 and Francisco Lindor is clearly compromised. The Brewers saved their season in the eighth inning in Game 2 and will stay alive to the next round now.

The Mets are going to keep riding this wave. The pitching matchup here is better for the Mets with Sean Manaea against Aaron Civale and the Mets will now have Edwin Diaz available, possibly for two innings. There's something about this offense right now, too, so I strongly believe in them.

The Braves' pitching staff is in tatters after the doubleheader on the Monday, to the point that they are starting Ian Anderson, who hasn't thrown an MLB pitch since 2022. The Padres are the better team anyway and were the best second-half team in baseball. This shouldn't be close.

I know everyone is worried about the Mets being compromised, but they've got Luis Severino to start the game and the offense has all kinds of good vibes going. Once they see Freddy Peralta a second time, they'll get to him. I'm riding the wave here at good value.

The Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez matchup means it's very likely to be low-scoring heading to the late innings. Both are stellar right now. And I know the Astros have the bigger names, but the Tigers' bullpen is more reliable. I'm going with the value here.

Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has dominated the Mets twice and looks great right now. The Mets will have trouble against him again. Tylor Megill has actually thrown pretty well lately and the Mets will be aggressive with their best relievers. This feels like a very low-scoring game.

The Braves haven't had to travel this last week at all and have won five of six. The Mets had to fly to Milwaukee and now back to Atlanta and have lost three of four. Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has dominated the Mets twice this season, including just last week. Mets starter Tylor Megill has been hit really hard by the Braves in the last three seasons, too. It feels like the Braves win the first game and Mets take the second.

Tatis has four homers in 24 career at-bats against Walker Buehler and 12 homers in 33 career games in Dodger Stadium. He went deep last night and it's a good spot for him again.