Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Spencer Strider looked like his old self last outing and that tells me he's finally feeling good after his Tommy John surgery and hamstring injury. The Mets' offense is reeling. The Braves are hot. Mets' starter Clay Holmes might start to get tired around now, too, given that he was a reliever the last several years before transitioning to starter. Braves win.
Garrett Crochet went 8 1/3 innings last time and his pitch counts have been ratcheting up lately. He leads the AL in innings after only throwing 146 last year. I think the Red Sox shorten his outing a bit today while Luis Castillo throws well and the Red Sox offense struggles again. The Mariners find a way as home 'dogs.
Shohei Ohtani only threw 44 pitches over three innings in his last simulated game and my hunch is the Dodgers limit him to something like 50 pitches at most (it might be lower). I also don't think he'll have trouble getting one strikeout per inning for two innings or something similar. I'm comfortable with the over here and love the plus money on it.
Jeremy Pena is on an extended heater. In fact, he's been great all season, but in the last 16 games, Pena is hitting .409 with a .435 on-base percentage and he's hitting leadoff atop an Astros' order getting to face the White Sox at home. Good chance to score at least one run.
I'm expecting a nice bounce-back from the Tigers after the 10-1 loss to the O's Wednesday. Plus, Tarik Skubal is on the mound. He's the best pitcher in baseball and the Orioles are bad against lefties. Dean Kremer does have good numbers at home, but it's a limited sample held up by performance against bad offenses. The Tigers aren't that. It'll be a multi-run Detroit win.
The Padres are 20-10 at home this season while starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has a 1.69 home ERA. Dodgers starter Dustin May has a 5.40 road ERA, too, while I trust the late-inning relievers from the Padres slightly more than the Dodgers. I'll take the plus money.
Antonio Senzatela is the best pitcher in baseball to fade right now with his 7.14 ERA (it's 7.42 at home) and the Rockies should be able to hit Kodai Senga after having just seen him last week. Remember, Coors Field suppresses pitch movement, too. I'm expecting a ton of runs in this one. I'd go over 12.5.
The Cubs are among the best teams in baseball in terms of pitchers per plate appearance and walk rate, plus they hit lefties hard. MacKenzie Gore routinely finishes six innings, but he never goes over 105 pitches and he can be hit. He'll be pulled before he finishes six here and we'll win with plus money.
The Brewers haven't hit left-handed pitchers well this season for the most part and Reds' lefty Andrew Abbott is on some kind of roll. In six May starts, he had a 0.55 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. The Brewers counter with a D.L. Hall and Quinn Priester combo and I like the chances the Reds' offense gets to one of them (or both).
I know Max Fried is a tall order here, but I'm not passing up the chance to get plus money on the Dodgers at home. They are 19-8 in Dodger Stadium and had Thursday off after a road trip. It's a good spot to win.
The Rockies are 3-25 with a negative-76 run differential on the road. The Mets are 21-7 with a plus-34 run differential at home. The most likely outcome is a Mets blowout.
The Mets are one of the toughest teams in baseball to strikeout for left-handed pitchers, sitting in the bottom four there in strikeout rate. Given how overworked the Red Sox bullpen has been of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see Garrett Crochet pitching to contact to get deeper into the game, too. He averages 7.3 strikeouts per start and due to what I said above, I like him to come in under that here.
These two teams combined for 15 runs in both Monday and Tuesday's games. Marlins' starter Max Meyer has a 7.97 ERA in his last four games and faces a stellar Cubs offense. Cubs rookie Cade Horton won't go too deep and has a shaky bullpen behind him.