Freddy Peralta had a 0.79 ERA in his last six regular-season starts and has a 1.08 ERA in his playoff outings. Fresh off winning ALCS MVP, he's gonna deal in this one and lead the Rays to their first win of the series.

The Rays' bullpen is in pretty rough shape right now, meaning they really need length out of Peralta. He's been amazing down the stretch and will be good for six innings here.

This is less on the pitching matchup than the line suggests, as I think Nick Martinez will throw just fine and Jacob Misiorowski is on fumes right now. The separation point for me is the bullpens. The Brewers are fully rested, and Milwaukee's offense will feast on the Rays' relievers.

The Rays bullpen is running out of gas. It wasn't that deep to begin with, but Ian Seymour is cooked and Bryan Baker has lost several ticks of velocity. Even if Nick Martinez has a quality start, the Brewers' offense will mount several rallies and top this mark.

The pitching matchup heavily favors the Rays as Freddy Peralta has been dazzling since making adjustments with the Rays after the trade deadline. Plus, the Rays are feeling good vibes and coming home to close it out. The most likely scenario here is a multi-run Rays win, so I love the plus money.

Noticing a theme? This is too low. Freddy Peralta will get through the fifth inning while dominating the lackluster Guardians' offense. Yes, the Guardians scored some runs in Game 1, but keep in mind they hit .231/.309/.378 on the road during the regular season.

The Guardians don't strike out a ton, but this is a small number. Freddy Peralta has been dominant for weeks, and I expect him to go 5-6 innings here with a strikeout per inning. I love the plus money.

I'm riding a lot of vibes here, because the Brewers just feel like they're gonna score runs. It might happen early against Tyler Glasnow who will miss bats but also get himself in trouble, or it might happen late. The Brewers are amazing. Ride the wave.

Gavin Williams is on a strong run of missing bats and sometimes gets pulled early due to high pitch counts, but the Rays swing more than any other team. Plus, Games 3-5 have no off-days and the Guardians can't afford to empty the bullpen in Game 3. Williams will get deep into this game.

The Brewers hit worse on the road and worse against lefties as compared to righties. The Dodgers desperately need Blake Snell to step up, and he struck out 10 in eight scoreless innings in Milwaukee last year in the NLCS. It's a different Brewers team this time around, but I trust Snell for his strikeouts here.

The White Sox ranked 5th in MLB in K% this season, and Messick struck them out 10 and 8 times in his two starts at Rate Field. He got them six times in 4 1/3 innings in Game 1, and I'm expecting him to go deeper in Game 4. Oh, and the White Sox struck out 19 times in Game 3.

The Astros don't belong here. The White Sox actually should've scored more runs in Game 1. The pitching matchup appears to favor the Astros, but Hunter Brown has mostly been a five-inning pitcher of late and hasn't finished the seventh since July 25. Meanwhile, Sean Burke had a disaster of an outing on Sept. 8 but has otherwise been very good this month. I like the number here and the White Sox's chances.

Cristopher Sanchez has a 5.12 ERA in his five September starts, which included him giving up three runs in six innings against the Braves on Sept. 4. The bullpen in front of Jhoan Duran is a mess right now and he threw 27 pitches in Game 1, giving up a three-run shot to Austin Riley. I love the low number and plus money here.

The Red Sox struggle against velocity and Cam Schlittler has owned them in his career. He has a 0.74 ERA against them in four regular-season starts and struck out 12 in his playoff start against them last season. He averages well more than a strikeout per inning, so eight strikeouts in six innings is a very reasonable expectation, and he might even go deeper.

The Rockies have completely checked out for the rest of the season. They are 2-14 with a -46 run differential in their last 16 games. Meanwhile, the D-backs are making a desperate playoff push.