Matt's Past Picks
The White Sox are 2-14 and have been shut out six times. They've also scored exactly one run three times, so that's more than half their games with 0-1 runs. They average 2.13 runs per game. Brady Singer is on the hill for the Royals with a 0.98 ERA and a rested bullpen behind him. The White Sox are pitching Jonathan Cannon, making his MLB debut and the Royals have had a quality offense. This shouldn't be close, so we're playing the run line (-1.5, -120).
Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn't homered yet this season and it isn't concerning. In fact, he's due, so I'm going to put a sprinkle on him going deep today. Hunter Brown was ravaged last time out and looks broken. Acuna went 2 for 3 with two doubles vs. him last year and the Crawford Boxes are enticing. Acuna is 7 for his last 16 with two doubles, so he's getting locked in. He'll go deep soon. Why not tonight?
The Cubs offense works pitchers incredibly hard. They are among the league leaders in walks, on-base percentage and pitches seen. They score runs in bunches. In the last week, they've held Joe Musgrove to four innings (and he had allowed zero runs through four before falling apart in the fifth), Yu Darvish to three, Yoshinobu Yamamoto to five and Bobby Miller to 1 2/3. I just can't see Cease with his penchant for control issues to get through six against this lineup.
The Rays were playing below their ceiling for a second but have now won three of four after a fluky loss last Friday. Zack Littel takes the ball for the Rays and he's been excellent this season after finishing last year strong. The Angels haven't seen this version of him and he'll throw very well. The Angels counter with Jose Soriano and very likely a handful of relievers. I really love the Rays here on getaway day.
Miller was bad last time out, getting bounced by the Cubs after just 1 2/3 innings. The Cubs' powerful on-base machine is much different than the Twins, though, who rarely walk, haven't hit for much power and are second in strikeout rate at 28.2% this year. Miller has struck out 14 in his 7 2/3 innings this year and the Twins have never seen him. With his nasty stuff, he'll feast on them.
In his career, Freddy Peralta has been much better at home than on the road and he's always struck out hitters at a very high clip. Last time out, he struck out eight in six innings. This time around, he gets the Mariners, who lead the majors by striking out 30.2% of the time. This means I expect Peralta to strikeout at least 1/3 of the batters he faces in this one and THAT means he'll get to eight in the sixth inning. The juice is worth the play here.
What an incredible start to the season for the Pirates, winning six of seven on the road. Of course, the competition was very weak and that changes with the Orioles coming to Pittsburgh. Grayson Rodriguez takes the ball for the Orioles and he's an ace in front of a rested bullpen with an offense that never says die. The Pirates send young, promising righty Jared Jones to the mound and it's possible he'll throw well. I still give the pitching advantage to the Orioles and they are the overall better team. The Pirates are due a little evening out after that trip, too.
In his 15 starts after returning from injury last season, Tarik Skubal had a 2.80 ERA in 80 1/3 innings. He threw six scoreless innings on Opening Day. Against these A's last September, he struck out 10 in seven scoreless innings and only needed 87 pitches to do so. It's the Tigers home opener, but they also played a doubleheader in New York yesterday with one game going into extra innings. I like the combination of Skubal dealing and Tigers manager AJ Hinch getting to save some bullpen for the weekend.
The Yankees just went 6-1 on an incredibly difficult road trip to start the season. Marcus Stroman looked great last time out just as he was last year before falling injured. The Blue Jays offense, meanwhile, is hitting .176 and has scored two or fewer runs in five of their seven games. They still haven't been home, either. There's some juice here, but it's hard to see the better team, Yankees, not winning this game with a bit extra adrenaline for the home opener.
Corbin Burnes struck out 11 in his Orioles debut on Opening Day and the Royals are an above-average strikeout team (24%, which is 11th in MLB right now). I'm not sure Burnes can get to double digits again, as that's always a tall order, but we only need seven to get home. He'll get there in the fifth inning. Burnes faced the Royals once last year and struck out seven.
The Cardinals won Saturday night and it took absolutely everything they had, along with a few breaks the Dodgers handed them during a rally that included catchers interference and a balk. This won't happen again. The Dodgers can torch Steven Matz and no hitter is hotter than Mookie Betts right now. The juice is worth it here.
This series has been high scoring and that was with several frontline starters taking the bump. Every single game has been over nine total runs and with a day game Sunday, we know Petco Park plays better for the hitters. The pitching matchup is Daulton Jefferies and Michael King and both are vulnerable while the bullpens have been a little taxed. The Giants' offense has shown to be feisty and the Padres' offense is so talented. There's a lot to like here from the bats.
The Diamondbacks are a very good team, playing at home and riding high confidence after trouncing a pathetic Rockies team in the first two games of the season. Arizona takes a step back on the mound from its two All-Star starters to Tommy Henry, but he threw seven scoreless innings against the Rockies in this ballpark last season. The D-backs offense will feast on Austin Gomber and the Rockies' woeful bullpen, too. I like another multi-run Snakes win, so we're playing the run line (-1.5, +110).
We swung and missed on the over here on Opening Day, but it was a matchup between All-Stars and Christopher Morel's 10th-inning foul ball nearly got us home anyway. The bottom line is these are two of the stronger offenses in baseball and this ballpark is incredibly hitter-friendly. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks pitches to contact and Rangers starter Cody Bradford has a career 5.30 ERA. I really think we're going to see a slugfest here.
The Rockies are terrible, again, and are routinely far worse on the road than at home. For example, they were 22-59 on the road last season with a -127 run differential. D-backs ace Zac Gallen will control the Rockies' offense while the D-backs' offense has been injected with power (Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson) to join Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Arizona will win and it's hard to see a close game, frankly, so let's ride the run line (-1.5, -105) for better value than the moneyline.