5 Expert Picks
Slade Cecconi should be faded. ...
The Guardians are 1-6 when Slade Cecconi starts this season...
The Cubs won the first three games of this series by one run each. ...
Back this plus odd player prop for this streaking team’s starting pitcher. …
The Pirates have scored one total run in their past two games. ...
I simply don't think Washington should be a home dog against mega-terrible Twins pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 6.49 ERA). That Minnesota lineup leaves a bit to be desired on a getaway day as well. Not a big fan of the Nats' Jake Irvin, either, at 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA. So I want +1.5 protection. The model has the Nationals winning and I'm leaning that way but don't turn down gifts.
DraftKings. Jake Irvin has failed to clear more than five innings pitched in five of six starts this season. His pitch efficiency has worsened in the ABS era, with his zone rate dropping to a career worst 50.7%, and his chase rate at 24.7% (13th percentile). His 4.01 pitches per plate appearance is in the 26th percentile of qualifiers, and he also hasn’t been particularly effective (4.93 ERA, 4.81 xERA, 48% hard hit rate). He’ll face a patient Twins team (9th in pitches per PA, 10th in chase rate) that has been starting to break through at the plate of late.
Paul Blackburn gets his first start for the Yankees. He might go only about 2-3 innings, but the Yankees’ bullpen has a 1.81 ERA the last two weeks, so that’s OK with us. Blackburn has not given up a HR in 14 innings, whereas Rangers LHP MacKenzie Gore gave up three dingers three starts ago. His road ERA is way higher than his home split, and the Yankees’ OPS vs. LHPs the last 15 days is .991. Texas’ bullpen has been elite, so we’ll go first five, which also gets us better odds.
The Chicago Cubs in back to back games have come through late to cash and keep their home winning streak alive to 13 games. Both games the Reds let slip away, but today is an opportunity to make amends. A year ago the Reds were 3 and 0 when seeing Colin Rea, including spoiling a career high 11 strikeout performance. Back the Reds to get in the win column.
A little chilly with some winds blowing in a second night in a row at Kauffman Stadium. Some full-game totals are down to 7.5 so this seems fair -- I wouldn't play lower and it's the only 4.5 we have. Royals supposed ace Cole Ragans has been just massacred on the road in 2026 but has a 0.75 ERA in 12.0 home innings. He had good numbers vs. the Guardians last year. Cleveland has managed only six total runs in a three-game skid. Southpaw Joey Cantillo allowed one earned over 5.2 vs. KC on April 8 and if he does similar again, we should be golden.
Ragans has been a totally different pitcher at home vs. on the road this season. At home, he's one earned run with 19 strikeouts in 12 innings. He gets Cleveland at home tonight. His line against the Guardians earlier this season looks ugly, but he struck out the first two batters he faced before taking a line drive off his pitching hand and then things unraveled, very likely due to a small injury. He's fine now. He's run past this number.
This feels like a fair price with Miles Mikolas on the mound for the Nationals. Bailey Ober is going for the Twins and he certainly hasn't been dominant, but he's only allowed 3 earned runs over his last 3 starts (going at least 6 innings in each). I expect Ober to pitch to contact and give up a run or two, but I also fully expect the Twins to get the better of Miles Mikolas who simply doesn't have the stuff to be a starting pitcher any longer. The Twins went for 11 runs on Tuesday against the Nats and I think they continue their hitting ways today.
Caesar’s / B365. I’m going to pick on the Nationals lineup again, this time backing the under on Bailey Ober’s hits allowed prop. The Nats just have not been hitting at all, accumulating a .177 average the last two weeks against righties. Ober has only allowed 30 hits in 38 innings this season, staying under this line in six of seven starts. His success is due in part to his lower arm angle, which combined with his towering frame and long extension, has made it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball. Ober’s contact metrics are all in the elite range this season, which has lead to drop in batting average allowed and xBA. Look for the righty to continue his resurgent season today.
The Phillies are rolling now and paid off for us nicely Tuesday via the newsletter. Cristopher Sanchez was so good that the bullpen is totally rested for Wednesday. So I don't see many reasons why it won't be another W behind Zack Wheeler. A's counterpart Jeffrey Springs was quite good his first four outings of the year but quite poor the past three. He also left his last one with an injury so might not even be 100% but has been cleared.
This is a tough matchup for Bryan Woo who will be facing an Atlanta lineup that has been very stingy in the strikeout department this season ranking bottom five in K Rate. Woo is not in great form at the moment and possesses a career worst SwStr% which doesn’t bode well for his chances. Hes also not going very deep into games and this feels like a good spot to fade him picking up a sixth strikeout.
There are plenty of ways to bet on baseball and plenty of sports betting terms to know when it comes to betting America's pastime. Every professional baseball team will play 162 regular season games, providing a wide range of baseball bets and MLB picks for you to consider. If you're new to the world of USA sports betting, you might find yourself overwhelmed by the sports betting terminology and number of sports betting sites available. Below are several baseball betting terms to help you make the best MLB picks this season.
Money line:The money line is the simplest and most common type of bet in baseball betting. You’re betting on one team to win outright. If a favorite is -150 on the money line, a $150 bet on that team to win outright would return $100. Conversely, if a team is a +200 underdog, a $100 bet would return $200.
Run line:The run line is a type of point spread bet in baseball. Instead of betting on which team will win the game, you bet on the margin of victory. One team is usually listed as a 1.5-run favorite. The other team is listed as a 1.5-run underdog, with corresponding odds attached to both MLB spreads.
Total (Over/Under):The Over/Under, also referred to as the total, is how many combined runs teams are expected to score in a baseball game. If the Over/Under is set at 8.5, then any combined score lower than that would make the Under cash. Nine or more runs is a win for the Over in your MLB picks.
Futures:Futures are long-term bets that won't resolve on the day they are placed. They are often placed preseason or in-season, and a popular baseball futures bet is picking which team will win the championship. Another is using the Over/Under, except in regards to a team's end-of-season win total. For example, the bar for the number of wins for New York’s pro baseball team could be 81.5, and a baseball futures bet is predicting if it will exceed that number.
Parlay:Parlays are simply the selection of two or more baseball picks on a single wager, where all outcomes must be correct in order for the bet to win. Although risky, parlays remain popular because of the potential to win large sums with minimal investments.
Prop (or proposition) bet:If you are looking for a fun way to bet on baseball, a prop bet is right for you. With a prop bet, you can wager on MLB picks like how many strikeouts a pitcher will record or whether a player will hit a home run.
First five innings (F5):A popular bet in baseball, first five innings (F5) is a wager on which team will be winning when five innings have been completed.
Team totals:The total, or Over/Under, usually refers to how many combined runs both teams score in a game, but team totals are popular as well. These are the MLB picks where a bettor will pick Over or Under on how many runs one team scores. If New York’s team total is set at 4.5, any runs total of five or higher would cash the Over, while anything fewer than five results in a win for the Under.
NRFI (No Runs First Inning):A popular bet for those who wager on baseball, NRFI stands for 'No Run First Inning.' The bet can be a bit risky considering both teams generally stack their best hitters towards the top of their lineups. The odds on NRFI bets are variable mostly depending on the quality of pitchers.
Player strikeouts:This bet refers to how many times a player will strike out in a single game. The Over/Under for total strikeouts is often 0.5 with adjusted odds for both wagers.
To hit a home run:If you think a player will hit a home run at any point in the game, you can place a bet, often times for a plus-money payout. You can also bet on who hits the first home run of the game.
To record a hit:Every player is assigned a total for hits in a single game, with bettors placing wagers on if they’ll exceed or fall short of the assigned total. For instance, if you place a bet on a player to record Over 1.5 hits, that player will need to finish with two hits for the bet to be a winner. If the player records just one hit, the bet is a loser.
Total bases:Another popular batter props bet is total bases. Bases are awarded on hits only, with the following scoring system: Single = 1 base, Double = 2 bases, Triple = 3 bases and Home Run = 4 bases.
To record an RBI:RBI stands for ‘Run Batted In.” Sportsbooks will offer an Over/Under on how many RBI a player will record in a single game.
1st inning total runs:An Over/Under is set on how many runs will be scored in the first inning. Oftentimes, Sportsbooks set the Over/Under for total runs scored in the first inning at 0.5 or 1.5.
Correct score:Correct score betting involves predicting the final score of a baseball game. These bets are typically hard to predict, which is why they’re often listed at plus-money odds. You can also predict the exact score of each inning at most sportsbooks.
Player performance doubles:This bet is similar to a parlay, meaning it involves two or more wagers. Player performance doubles often feature over/under starting pitcher strikeouts and a money line pick on which team will win outright.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)Q: Can I bet on a baseball game after it has begun?A: Yes, most sportsbooks offer live-betting, meaning you can place wagers on live-updated totals or even the outcome of the next at-bat.
Q: What happens if a baseball game is postponed?A: It will vary by sportsbook, but most will void and refund unless the game is rescheduled within a certain timeframe.
Q: What is a push in baseball sports betting?A: A push means the point spread or point total hits the exact number in which you bet. For example, if the Over/Under is eight runs, and the game finishes 5-3, the bet is a push and will be refunded.
Q: How do I know which team is the favorite?A: The favorite is usually listed with a negative number, while the underdog is listed with a positive number. For instance, if New York is favored to beat Boston, New York will be listed at -135 (risk $135 to win $100). As the underdog, Boston would be listed at +175 (risk $100 to $175).