MLB Expert Picks

Drew Rasmussen was a hard-luck loser last time out. ...

Drew Rasmussen has been dominating in June. ...

The Dodgers travel to Minnesota having lost two straight...

The Phillies have won eight of Zack Wheeler's 10 starts, with only 14 earned runs allowed in his 62 innings pitched. He's 6-1 with the 2.01 ERA, and the Phillies try to win the series against the Mets tonight after exploding for 15 runs Saturday. The Mets have lost three of David Peterson's last four starts, and in his last two starts, he allowed nine combined runs. The Mets are currently sitting in last place at 35-42, 14.5 games out of first place. Phillies win.

Throughout the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners series, the price points offered on the moneyline for Boston have not been indicative of a team that was fourteen games below .500. The Red Sox have won the first two games in the series, and will try and complete their third road sweep of the year. Back Boston, as they continue to find a way to outlast the Mariners.

Well the Snakes certainly owe me after allowing 16 runs on Saturday -- the Twins might not score 16 in the next week combined. I still believe Arizona +1.5 was a gift (if you had told me pre-game it would score 8 at home, i would have bet a dangerous amount and now be at a soup kitchen), but we move on. Minny is playing better of late but still well under .500 away and it's the end of trip. Don't know a ton about Twins rookie pitcher Mike Paredes but he seems quite mediocre.

DraftKings. After missing all of 2025, the Pirates seem inclined to bring Jared Jones along slowly. Through four starts, Jones has been kept to 74-77 pitches. While at some point, the Pirates might let Jones off his leash - this doesn’t feel like the spot/environment. For one, Jones will face seven lefties, the split he’s allowing an absurd .439 average (.378 xBA) - mainly due to diminished returns on his fastball. And the Rockies have been scorching righties at home since the weather has turned: since May 20th, Colorado has a .865 OPS in this split (second best mark in baseball). Jones’ piggyback partner Carmen Mlodzinski is not available, but the Pirates have plenty of fresh bullpen arms with a day off on tap tomorrow.

Had not planned on playing this game but Fernando Tatis Jr. is sitting for the Dads, so now I will throw a half unit down. He's having a disappointing year but still a potential game-changer. Should make life a bit easier on Rangers starter Nate Eovaldi, although he has been rather hit or miss lately.

DraftKings. Let’s try this again - we were on Nathan Eovaldi’s strikeout prop yesterday, before he was scratched. We get a better price today, presumably with some injury risk baked in. But this is a great spot for Eovaldi against a right-handed heavy Padres lineup. San Diego should have at least six righties in the lineup today, which feeds into Eovaldi’s better split (24% K% and a .225 xBA). With him only being pushed back one day, I’ll assume the risk and take this line, which the righty has cleared in 10/14 starts, including 9/11 against teams outside the top 10 in K% against righties (Padres are 25th).

Daylen Lile has not had a hit in the Nationals current series against the Tampa Bay Rays. In fact he is 0 for his last 13 at the plate. Nick Martinez after strong success the first two months of the season, we have seen a down trend over his last five outings. Look for Lile to end his slump with a two hit game, and clearing all his main props.

Daylen Lile has not had a hit in the Nationals current series against the Tampa Bay Rays. In fact he is 0 for his last 13 at the plate. Nick Martinez after strong success the first two months of the season, we have seen a down trend over his last five outings. Look for Lile to end his slump with a two hit game, and clearing all his main props.

The Rays at home have been very profitable for us this season -- but so glad I didn't play them yesterday like I nearly did. Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don't make! End of a trip for the Nats and I doubt that one of their top relievers in Brad Lord is available after throwing 36 pitches on Saturday. Tampa Bay's Nick Martinez is 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA at the Trop this year.

DraftKings. Robert Gasser is under this line in four of five starts this season, with the lone miss coming in outlier hitting conditions in Las Vegas. Overall, he’s a high whiff, high walk, and low contact pitcher who is allowing an xBA of .187 (95th percentile). Dealing with a multitude of injuries, the Braves are only hitting .233 over the last month against lefties with an above average walk rate (9.4%). Gasser also isn’t typically afforded a long leash the third time through the order, and the Brewers pen is in good shape.

It's all about Chase Burns vs Elmer Rodriguez, a massive mismatch in starting pitchers here today. After the Reds bats found a groove yesterday vs. Will Warren, I'm expecting them to give the young rookie some problems here this afternoon. The best price on the F5 ML is around -135 but most of the market is -150, but full game ML is a far better price with how bad the Cincy bullpen is, so I'm taking the Reds to win the F5 at +110 where we have some value left. Burns will need to avoid too many walks, but he's been electric with a 2.58 xERA since start of May, and the Yankees lineup is still a bit depleted without Judge, Stanton, and Grisham.

Zac Gallen has allowed three runs, or more, in eight of his last nine starts with a 1.53 WHIP on the season. Taj Bradley is the more dependable arm, currently, despite allowing four runs, or more, in all four of his last starts. The Twins have won five of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a loss. Arizona has lost five of their last six night games following a home win.