In four starts against the White Sox this season, Gavin Williams went under this line in three of them. Not to mention, with the day off between Games 1 and 2, the Guardians have a rested bullpen and will relieve the American League strikeout leader if he runs into any early trouble. It's not a good formula for Williams pitching into the 6th inning of Game 2. In a must win game for Cleveland, I think their ace throws five solid innings and doesn't come out for the 6th.

Do you really want to pick against Drew Rasmussen here? I don't! The Rays have won each of Rasmussen's last 12 starts since the All-Star Break! 12! In three of his four starts against the Yankees this season, the Rays starter has pitched at least six innings and given up one run or less. Gerrit Cole has been good against Tampa Bay with a 2.50 ERA this season but I feel more comfortable playing the hot hand of Rasmussen against his AL East rivals in Game 1.

Since the new MLB playoff format was introduced in 2022, Game 3 of Wild Card series' have proven to be low-scoring. In fact, four of the five Game 3s saw six or less total runs. We should see a combination of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies, so don't expect the chilly Atlanta offense to score at will. And with all hands on deck for the Braves (minus ace Chris Sale likely), expect a flurry of pitching changes to play the matchups. This feels like a 3-2 or 4-2 game either way.

I hate laying -172 odds for any bet but Cubs 3B Alex Bregman is 7 for 8 vs. Padres starter Michael King in his career. That is serious domination of a matchup. Plus, Bregman is coming off a 4 for 4 game on Sunday. I'll also be betting his Over 1.5 H+R+RBI at plus-money on several sportsbooks.

I'll lay the -1.5 run line for the home team in Game 1 of this short series. Chris Sale is 3-0 vs. Philadelphia this season with a 2.08 ERA in four starts. In those first three games, Atlanta won each by multiple runs. Meanwhile, Philadelphia starts Jesus Luzardo in Game 1, though I'm not sure how much length they'll give him after coming off the Injured List on Sunday. Luzardo through a two-hit shutout vs. Atlanta in September, but is he 100% now. Who knows? Either way, I think the Braves win Game 1 by a score of 5-2 and sweep the Phillies, who look to be on a downward trajectory at this point.

With a win, the Pirates finish above .500 for the first time since 2018 and you know this team is going to want to do it. Sunday's starter Jared Jones has been awesome in September: 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA. With the emotion worn off after Justin Verlander's finale on Saturday for Detroit, I think Pittsburgh wins the season finale and finished 82-80 in 2026.

This seems to be a generous price for the road Guardians, who are in the thick of a division race and have their ace on the mound in Friday's series opener. Gavin Williams has been awesome for Cleveland in September with a 1.44 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 25 innings. Meanwhile, Kansas City has lost all four of Noah Cameron's outings this month. With the Guardians narrowly protecting a one game lead over the White Sox in the American League Central, I think the road team wins for the 8th time in 9 games, while the home Royals fall for the 7th time in 8 games on Friday night.

Philadelphia has everything to play for this weekend while Tampa Bay does not. The Phillies hold a two game lead over the Diamondbacks for the final National League Wild Card berth but don't have the tiebreaker if the two teams end up even. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has clinched home field advantage in the American League and just needs to stay healthy this weekend before nearly a week break to the ALDS. Cristopher Sanchez, who is 12-2 with a 2.21 ERA in home starts for the Phillies, gets the ball in the opener. Not only is he great at Citizens Bank Park, but Sanchez has held the Rays to a lifetime .132 average against him. I think the home team wins by daylight on Friday night.

This one is a gut feeling play for me. Kyle Schwarber is stuck on 95 RBIs and is five short of his fourth consecutive 100+ RBI season. The Phillies' leadoff hitter has now gone eight straight games without driving in a run and I think that changes on Friday night against Freddy Peralta and the Rays. Schwarber has four hits lifetime against Peralta in 17 at bats, with three of them being solo home runs. With Philadelphia aiming to clinch a Wild Card berth, Schwarber is also aiming to win a home run title, of which he's tied at 45 with future NL MVP, Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs. I think the Phillies slugger makes noise and cashes this plus-money play on Friday night.

I'll back Bryan Woo in his final start of the 2026 season as he's been just awesome at home this season. Woo is 8-1 with a 2.36 home ERA as compared to his ugly 5.22 ERA on the road. The right hander has been excellent overall in September for Seattle having gone 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in four starts. On the other hand, Los Angeles has lost 11 of the last 12 Grayson Rodriguez starts. I don't love playing home teams -1.5 runs but this one seems to be an exception on Thursday night.

It's the Cubs home finale of the regular season and I'm betting on Pete Crow-Armstrong putting on a show for the home fans. The Cubs need this game to avoid the sweep but it's looking less likely that they'll be hosting a Wild Card series at Wrigley Field next week. The home-road splits for the future National League MVP are stark: he's batting over .300 at home as compared to .253 on the road. Expect the superstar to put on a show for the home crowd with a multi-hit performance (or at least an extra base hit) on Thursday.

Inexcusable extra inning loss by the Cubs on Tuesday night. And now all three teams in the National League Wild Card are tied at 87-70 with five games to play. The Cubs got Kevin Gausman from Toronto in August just for this reason - important games. Look for Chicago's bats to come alive on Wednesday (despite the wind blowing in) against Marlins starter Ryan Gusto. In 36 at-bats, Gusto has allowed current Cubs hitters to bat .417 against him. I think the Cubs score 5+ runs on Wednesday and clinch a playoff spot so they can celebrate at The Friendly Confines.

As meaningless games go in baseball, this is definitely one of them. Even though the Giants won on Monday night, their lineup is basically a AAA team at this point. I follow baseball very closely (thank you fantasy teams and betting) and I've never heard of more than half their lineup until recently. Minnesota has the better pitcher in Taj Bradley, who is 11-6 this season including 7-4 on the road, while Anthony Molina has an 8.68 ERA at home (small sample size though) for San Francisco. Minnesota evens the series while playing for pride and gets Bradley his 12th win of 2026.

I think this is a fair price on the Phillies, who are all but assured of a Wild Card berth but still have a chance to be the #4, #5, or #6 seed in the National League. They open the final week of the season with ace right-hander Zack Wheeler, who is searching for his 14th win of 2026. Milwaukee's lineup is batting .190 against him in 100 career at-bats. On the other side, Dustin May is 2-4 with a 5.76 road ERA this season for Milwaukee. Though I think the Brewers will do enough this week to hold off the Dodgers for NL home field advantage, the Phillies need this one more and I think they'll get it.

I'm putting my faith in Hayden Wesneski to pitch a gem for the Astros and keep them at least tied for first place in the American League West Division. In nine starts this season, Houston is 7-2 as the 28 year old has been more than serviceable since debuting at the end of July. Plus, current Braves are hitting a pathetic .139 in 36 at-bats against the right-hander which also adds to the case. Houston evens the series on Saturday.