I love this price on the Rays for Monday. Toronto has lost all three of Eric Lauer's starts on the road while Tampa Bay is 5-1 in Nick Martinez's starts this season. Plus, Martinez hasn't given up more than two earned runs in a game this season. The Rays are the second best team record-wise in the American League and should continue rolling on Monday over the disappointing Blue Jays.
I'm out on the Giants for now. San Francisco got swept by the Phillies, including losing both of yesterday's games after blowing ninth inning leads. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been a pleasant surprise thus far in 2026 and rolls out Shane McClanahan on the bump with a 2.00 ERA at home this season. I'll also be playing Yandy Diaz props, considering he's hitting .330 this season and is 7 for 22 lifetime against Giants starter Robbie Ray.
Backing the White Sox is never a comfortable option, but tonight seems as good a time as any to try it. Chicago has won its last two series (Athletics and Diamondbacks) on the road and comes home to face the Nationals and their primary pitcher tonight, Miles Mikolas. If you aren't aware, the veteran right-hander has a 9.15 ERA this season and is among the worst pitchers in baseball. With Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, and Colston Montgomery swinging hot bats, I'm rolling with the home team for 1.5 units on Friday.
There's no way the Dodgers can actually lose three straight games to the Rockies, right? I didn't think so. Shohei Ohtani is 3-for-7 against Rockies starter Jose Quintana with all three hits having left the yard. I was looking for a way to play his props at plus-money and this is a good option. I could see L.A.'s slugger hitting his sixth homer of the season or maybe even getting his first triple of 2026. Either way, I have a hard time seeing the best player in baseball do nothing against the soft-tossing Quintana and a lousy Rockies bullpen on Monday night.
We have a real barn burner on Monday night in Kansas City, with a team that has lost seven straight games (KC) vs. a team that has lost 5 of its last 6 (Baltimore). But I'll roll with the home team in part due to the success of Seth Lugo thus far, whose 1.48 ERA has been about the only bright spot to the Royals' brutal start. Expect him to be the stopper, keep the Orioles in check, and get Kansas City back on the winning track.
Unofficially, when I've gone to Diamondbacks games in the last four years, Arizona wins at least at least 2/3 of the time. Now that's not why I'm picking them on Friday night, but yes, I'll be at the game. The DBacks had a successful 6-3 road trip back east and had a day of rest, whereas Toronto flew from Milwaukee to Phoenix on Thursday night. In terms of the starting pitchers, Michael Soroka is 3-0 this season for the home team, while Eric Lauer has a 7.82 ERA for Toronto. Arizona wins 7-4.
Who knew rain could figure prominently in a domed stadium? If you saw the Milwaukee-Toronto game on Wednesday night, you know what I'm talking about. Nonetheless, don't expect another 2-1 duel with Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat pitching in Thursday's matinee. Both teams have potent offenses and neither pitcher is off to a particularly good start in 2026. I think we see double digit runs in this contest.
There's a bit of risk here as the Athletics have only scored four total runs in their last three games (yet they're 2-1 record-wise). But the offense is set to break out a bit tonight against Kumar Rocker, considering current A's players are a whopping 10 for 17 against him (.588 average). Thus far in 2026, the Texas right-hander has given up five runs in 10 innings pitched but I wouldn't be surprised if he had worse fortune in a hitter-friendly park tonight in Sacramento.
He may not be the Pirates' ace (or anywhere close to it), but Mitch Keller is off to a flying start in 2026. Three starts, six innings each, and only two total runs given up. Since the beginning of last season, Keller is 13-6 to the over 16.5 outs when pitching at home. While the Nationals roster has a collective .321 average against Keller, I believe the Pirates starter continues his excellent start to 2026 and pitches at least six innings tonight.
Rice has been a star on the young season with 4 home runs, 12 RBIs and a batting average over .330. He hits in the middle of the Yankees potent lineup and is 1-for-2 lifetime with two RBIs against Rays starter Nick Martinez. With an RBI in 5 of 11 starts this season, I expect he'll do damage as the Bronx Bombers even their weekend series in Tampa Bay on Saturday.
On 4/21/25, Max Meyer faced the Reds at home, tossing six shutout innings and fanning an impressive 14 batters. Can he post a similar line at home on 4/9/26? Through two starts this season, Miami's right hander boasts a 10.24 K/9 ratio, so assuming he can go at least five innings, I feel good about his chances of reaching six strikeouts. It also doesn't hurt that Cincinnati is striking out nearly 10 times per game. I don't like the juice, but I like Meyer's chances of hitting this prop on Thursday afternoon.
Trevor Rogers was a dynamo at Camden Yards last season, going 4-1 with a 0.96 ERA in seven starts. He went at least six innings in 6 of 7 home starts and went seven innings on Opening Day vs. Minnesota. With Baltimore looking to avoid the sweep against the Rangers, expect Rogers to go deeper into the game and give his team another quality start.
PCA is 7 for 9 lifetime vs. Miles Mikolas with five home runs and 6 RBIs. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field and Chicago's new $115 million man hitting in the heart of the order, I expect the Cubs' centerfielder to drive in multiple runs on Saturday.
I should know better than to lay the home team -1.5 once again as I lost by the hook with the Orioles on Thursday. But I think the Cubs crush Miles Mikolas and a Nationals lineup that is among the least imposing on paper in baseball. Cade Horton should've won NL Rookie of the Year in 2025 and I think he keeps the Nats in check on Saturday. Chicago avenges Thursday's blowout home loss and scores at least seven runs in a big win.
Last year, Trevor Rogers was 4-1 with a 0.96 ERA at Camden Yards, having allowed only five earned runs in 47.0 innings pitched. He opens 2026 against one of the worst teams in the league, with the Orioles having added some major pop to the lineup with Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward. I think Baltimore cruises to a home victory and covers the run line for us with relative ease on Opening Day.