Given Tennessee's No. 11 ranking for adjusted defense efficiency, the points are worth taking. Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson is listed as questionable, which suggests he will be limited even if he plays. Few teams are more physical than the Volunteers. They can impede the smooth Cyclones from scoring. The Vols easily covered in their first two NCAA Tournament outings and enter this matchup with momentum. Points could be hard to come by, which makes the spread appealing.

Iowa State is the big question mark heading into tonight with the status of Joshua Jefferson up in the air. Tennessee and Rick Barnes are aiming for their third straight Elite 8 appearance, which has the market on their side. To me though, they are similar to Nebraska that got away with a win in the Sweet 16 against Virginia. This will be a tight game, but grab the Cyclones who have that Gonzaga trait of everyone has been waiting for this program moment.

One thing I learned over the years is to never decide on teams I'm going to bet or fade in the NCAA Tournament before seeing the bracket. Tennessee is a great example. I was looking to bet against Tennessee early but they got two favorable matchups versus Miami, OH and Virginia. Now the Vols are facing Iowa State without its best player in Joshua Jefferson. I don't think Jefferson plays but if he does he won't be close to 100% against Tennessee's physical front line. This probably comes down to which team protects the basketball. Both defenses thrive on creating turnovers and converting them into easy baskets. I believe we are looking at a one possession win either way. I'll take the 4.5 with Tennessee.

Rick Barnes is knocking on the door of a third-straight Elite Eight appearance and already has Tennessee in the Sweet 16 for a fourth straight season. The foundational pieces of his program, like offensive rebounding, are a huge part of neutral site tournament wins and that in particular is an X-factor in finding an edge against an elite and disruptive Iowa State defense that makes everything hard. Plus, while the Joshua Jefferson injury is likely baked into this spread already, his all-around excellence means no one player can fill the role entirely. Jefferson is Iowa State's second-leading scorer (16.4 PPG), yes, but he’s also second on the team in assists (4.8 APG) and leads the team in rebounds (7.4 RPG).

Joshua Jefferson is highly questionable to play. Iowa State's head athletic trainer confirmed that Jefferson "rolled it pretty good" and noted that the ankle is still in the "acute stage" of recovery. The Cyclones don’t have much depth inside, so losing him hurts even more. And now, they have to face Tennessee, which is just about the worst matchup for a team missing its best big man, who ranks second in POY rankings. If Jefferson does play, he won’t be 100%. The Volunteers crash the offensive glass (44.8% rate, best in the country), which means they get tons of second-chance points and extra shots. Additionally, Tennessee is outstanding at defending the three-point line, an area where Iowa State has consistently struggled against strong perimeter defenses.