I'll lay the 9.5 with St. John's here. I thought the Missouri Valley was down this season and Northern Iowa still finished tied for sixth with an 11-9 record. The Panthers two best wins are over Illinois State and UC Irvine. They don't have one victory over a team ranked in the KenPom Top 100. I'll make this simple: I don't know how Northern Iowa scores in this game. They are one of the worst teams in the country at offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line. The Panthers will need to make shots consistently from the perimeter to stay in the game and I don't see it happening. I like the Red Storm to win by double digits.

With fewer than 62 possessions projected, points will be scarce and margins tight. A 10.5-point spread in a slow game is like 14 in a fast-paced one. Northern Iowa is the nation’s best at defending the perimeter, allowing just 6.3 opponent three-pointers per game. St. John’s depends on offensive rhythm and spacing, but UNI’s defense and tempo will force a half-court battle. While UNI’s overall offense ranks just 153rd in AdjO, the numbers are skewed by their slow pace. In the half-court, UNI is highly efficient—consistently generating high-quality shots and maintaining a strong points-per-possession rate. The Red Storm struggles to shoot the basketball at a high level and must travel cross-country after an exhausting Big East Title run. My model made the favorite -8.6 points.

St. John’s has a talent, size and athleticism advantage in this matchup. I just wonder if the edge is worth this many points when you consider the way Northern Iowa matches up and the cross-country travel for the Johnnies to San Diego. This year’s Panthers team packs it in on defense and limits easy looks at the rim, forcing opponents to shoot over the top of the defense. St. John’s is excellent at a lot of things but shooting would not be the first that comes to mind, so it’s going to really require Zuby Ejiofor to take over the game. St. John’s is still my pick to advance, but an upset scare against a bad matchup would not be a surprise at all.